Atlanta Braves free agent profile: Cody Allen
The Atlanta Braves are looking for a veteran that they can trust at the back of the bullpen. Is the former Indians closer their guy?
The Atlanta Braves are looking for a veteran to lead the bullpen as either a shutdown closer or significant piece of the back end of the mix. Could Cody Allen be the piece they’re looking for?
Player Profile
The Cleveland Indians were persistent in getting Cody Allen into their farm system. They originally drafted Allen out of St. Petersburg College in 2010 before he then went to High Point for one season, where the Indians selected him in the 23rd round in 2011.
Allen was a rare pitcher that never spent a day as a starter in the minor leagues. In his draft season in 2011, he flew up the minor league system for the Indians, making it to AA.
In 2012, Allen opened with high-A, moved quickly to AA, and finally to AAA. After 31 games of dominance in the minors, Allen ascended to the major leagues, pitching 27 games, tossing 29 innings, with a 3.72 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and a 15/27 BB/K ratio.
His first full season was a resounding success, as Allen appeared in 77 games, pitching 70 1/3 innings, with a 2.43 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and a 26/88 BB/K ratio. He took over as closer in 2014, and from 2014-2017, he was a dominant closer for the Indians, posting 120 saves over 4 seasons, with a 2.62 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and averaging 69 innings with a 25/92 BB/K ratio.
Things seemed to hit a wall in 2018 for Allen. He posted a 4.70 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, saving 27 games, with a 33/80 BB/K over 67 innings. He lost his closing job to Brad Hand during the season.
What Allen offers
On the mound, Allen works primarily with a 2-pitch mix. He works with a fastball and curveball. He averages mid-90s with his fastball and mid-80s with his curve. He’s typically used the fastball roughly 60-65% of the time and his curve 35-40%.
More than anything, what made Allen elite was a lack of missing. While many closers run up high strikeout rates while walking hitters at a 10%+ rate, Allen’s typically been a guy in the 8-9% range while striking out roughly 1/3 of hitters.
That’s also what hurt him in 2018. He slipped to a career-worst 11.4% walk rate in 2018, and you could see that he was “aiming” his fastball just to “get it over”. That allowed batters to sit on the fastball and pound it.
That led to Allens hard-hit rate spiking, as he posted the highest hard-hit percentage of his career, at 38.4%. Interestingly enough, he had posted a 35.3% hard-hit rate in 2016 in one of his best seasons. More significantly, the hard-hit rate combined with the highest fly ball rate of his career (50.6%) to lead to 11 home runs and a .410 slugging percentage allowed. The slugging and .179 ISO were both career highs for Allen.
Cost
After the worst season of his career, and having just turned 30, will Allen be worth the contract that the Atlanta Braves would have to pony up?
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In MLB Trade Rumors’ rankings of the top 50 free agents this offseason, Allen was ranked #37. Interestingly enough, he was predicted by MLBTR to go to the Atlanta Braves on a two-year, $16 million deal.
With the push for one-year, make-good deals that the Braves have taken so far in free agency, Cody Allen could make a lot of sense. Rather than the $8 million annual projection for a multi-year deal, the Atlanta Braves could possibly make a move with Allen that got him on board for $10-11 million for just the 2019 season.
If he showed he was worthy of a closing role again, he’d be an easy qualifying offer guy. At just 30, he certainly should have the bounce back in him.
Next. FA profile: Andrew Miller. dark
Whether or not the Atlanta Braves will take the risk on Allen is yet to be seen. He has the raw stuff to definitely make a comeback, but he’ll have to put that stuff in the zone to make it work.