Atlanta Braves free agent profile: Bryce Harper

The Cost

If we simply take the cost of Andruw’s contract and measure it out against modern contracts, we can look at just the final 5 seasons. The progression of his contract had Andruw as somewhere between the 18th and 25th highest-paid player in the game from 2003-2007. That would start around $23 million annually currently, just to compare eras in pay, so Andruw’s 5 years that paid him $65 million would have paid him roughly $120 million now.

Of course, that won’t get you to the table with Bryce Harper. He’s not looking to be the 18th best-paid player in the league. He’s looking for one of two things – a deal with double-digit guaranteed seasons, or one that makes him the highest-paid player in average annual salary. Mike Trout had the highest salary in 2018 at just over $34 million.

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Harper the #1 overall free agent available this offseason in their rankings, and they predicted that he would receive a 14-year, $420 million contract. For those not good with the maths, that’s $30 million per season.

Would it be worth it?

Harper’s bat behind Freddie Freeman in the lineup would be an incredible asset, and he would absolutely immediately turn the Atlanta Braves into one of the best offensive teams in baseball by setting up the lineup in such a way that the team would have tremendous balance and power as well. However, 14 years is a ridiculous number.

Frankly, even 10 years is beyond what should be considered wise for the Atlanta Braves, at least in guaranteed years. However, if the compromise to take down the years is to increase the average annual value of the deal, that would likely mean a deal for Harper would look something like 7 years for $240 million, which would balance out to an average of $34.29 million per year.

A wise way to structure the deal would be to set it up like such:

2019: $30 million
2020: $32 million
2021: $32 million
(opt out option)
2022: $35 million
2023: $35 million
(opt out option)
2024: $38 million
2025: $38 million

A contract set up in that way, with two opt-outs and an average annual value that would be higher than any player makes currently in the game, could be what attracts Harper.

Should the Atlanta Braves do it

It all depends. The Atlanta Braves would need to have an idea that they could afford the bigger years down the road as that will be when players like Albies, Acuna, et al will be hitting arbitration and then free agency. While a player of Harper’s value doesn’t come along every day, it’d be wise not to over-extend resources on any one player, no matter how good the player is.