House That Hank Built
Fansided

Atlanta Braves and the rise of a future MLB problem

By Alan Carpenter

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 09: Luke Voit #45 of the New York Yankees tags out Mookie Betts #50 of the Boston Red Sox at first base during the first inning in Game Four of the American League Division Series at Yankee Stadium on October 09, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 09: Luke Voit #45 of the New York Yankees tags out Mookie Betts #50 of the Boston Red Sox at first base during the first inning in Game Four of the American League Division Series at Yankee Stadium on October 09, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
2 of 3
Next
ATLANTA, GA – OCTOBER 08: umpire Doug Eddings calls Joc Pederson #31 of the Los Angeles Dodgers out at second base next to Charlie Culberson #16 of the Atlanta Braves during the eighth inning of Game Four of the National League Division Series at Turner Field on October 8, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA – OCTOBER 08: umpire Doug Eddings calls Joc Pederson #31 of the Los Angeles Dodgers out at second base next to Charlie Culberson #16 of the Atlanta Braves during the eighth inning of Game Four of the National League Division Series at Turner Field on October 8, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images) /

Looking Ahead

So given this partitioning… here are the trends that are already in play for 2019 and thereafter:

  • Teams at the top are ‘in’ on literally every player of value – whether that be via the free agent market or the trade market.
  • Teams at the next level are poking around the edges or showing interest in the next tier of talent available
  • Those in the middle are biding their time; those further down are doing virtually nothing yet… seemingly waiting on the crumbs to fall from the table.
  • Those at the bottom are selling.

One would think that at some point, the top teams will either run out of prospect to deal, money to spend, or positions to fill.  So far, the Yankees and Dodgers haven’t reached that point, it seems… and the Red Sox may already be there – hence the Super Team thought.

While Rob Manfred has been going through great machinations to shave 5 minutes (2.7%) off the average time of a 9 inning game in 2018 (still tied for 3rd longest all time), the situation outlined above may indeed be a more significant problem for the sport than 5 minutes ever was.

The Real Problem

Baseball is a much better game when most of its teams are contending.  Yet the trend toward seeing teams using the ‘rebuilding’ track is increasing.  Here is the stark result:

Average attendance per game (as reported):

  • 2012 – 30,806
  • 2013 – 30,451
  • 2014 – 30,345
  • 2015 – 30,349
  • 2016 – 30,131
  • 2017 – 29,908
  • 2018 – 28,659

2018 represents the lowest numbers since 2003.  The highest attendance in recent years actually came in 2007 (32,696).  Since then… a steady decline.

The Commissioner attributes these trends to game length.  Instead it’s almost certainly a lot more about 2 factors:  the cost of attendance and the competitiveness of the home team.

It’s my conjecture that the price is more tolerated when there’s a team worth rooting for, yet the new “thing” in baseball is to cycle through competitiveness, contending, tear down, rebuild… rinse and repeat.

Certain teams – these ‘super teams’ – have managed to find a formula for themselves that skips the steps that make them unwatchable.  Most clubs can’t do that.

So the result is what we’re going to see in 2019 is a few teams loading up on the best available players while the rest are virtually unwatchable.

Home/Braves News