Atlanta Braves Mock Winter Meeting Epilogue: A new roster

But your best hitter should hit first

In “The Book,” Tom Tango has a whole chapter on batting order. In most instances, I hear people quote one part of one paragraph.

. . .you want your best hitter as the #1 hitter, since the leadoff slot obviously has more PA than any other.

Context is everything, and in context, the quote goes like this.

Based strictly on . . .  (theory) you want your best hitter as the #1 hitter, since the leadoff slot obviously has more PA than any other. But, as we know, baseball is a lot more complicated than a single context.  (Emphasis added)

Eventually, he gets around to saying that your leadoff hitter should be your best hitter who isn’t a home run hitter.  Why?  Because he comes to the plate fewer times with runners on base than any other lineup spot.

In our case that’s Inciarte.

The number two hitter should be the best hitter with high on-base and power stats.

When deciding between the #2 and #4 slots, if you have two batters of overall similar quality, put the guy with more extra-base hits in the #4 slot, and the guy with more walks in the #2 slot.

That’s Acuna.

That’s just theory

No, it’s the way the real game works. Last season Acuña hit 26 home runs (regular season).

• 19 were solo homers
• six were two-run homers
• one was a three-run homer

Of those 26 home runs:

• 19 hitting leadoff – four with men on base
• four hitting second
• three hitting eighth – two with men on base

Hitting leadoff Acuña reached base 119 times- 86 hits 33 walks. He scored 54 runs, 26 of those with his own homer. The number two hitter failed to drive hi him in 65 times.

Having the leadoff man on base even 33% of the time turns more of those homers into two-run homers. Worst case Acuña stands at first knowing Freeman, Grandal and Rosario are waiting to drive him in.

Caveats

Ender has to get on base. With Acuna behind him, he will see more fastballs. That alone should raise his OBP.

Albies remembering that he wasn’t hired to hit home runs and how to hit lefty pitching could generate a change. He’s hitting eighth because the lineup is so deep it’s hard to move him higher.

That’s a wrap for the Mock GM Meeting

I always enjoy this process, at least until I’m halfway in and can’t get anyone to reply.  Real GMs work their system 24/7, 365. I had about 22 hours over five or six days.

I tried to put together a simulated team that would challenge for a title. I believe I succeeded, particularly with pitching. It’s not exactly the team I wanted, but it’s a very good team that no opponent would take lightly.

I apologize for overuse of the words mock and simulated. We must ensure no one believes any of the deals are real. I typed mock so many times I felt like a chicken with a lisp; mock, mock, mock.

I hope you enjoyed the process even if you don’t agree with every decision.