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Atlanta Braves free agent profile: Craig Kimbrel

By Benjamin Chase

CINCINNATI, OH - MAY 7: Craig Kimbrel #46 of the Atlanta Braves pitches against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on May 7, 2013 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI, OH - MAY 7: Craig Kimbrel #46 of the Atlanta Braves pitches against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on May 7, 2013 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images) /
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Atlanta Braves
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – JULY 15: National League All-Star Craig Kimbrrel #46 of the Atlanta Braves pitches against the American League All-Stars during the 85th MLB All-Star Game at Target Field on July 15, 2014 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

Dirty Craig pitching dirty?

The Atlanta Braves need consistency at the back of the bullpen, but is Craig Kimbrel the guy to do it, and can they afford him?

The 2018 season was the 5th straight year of increasing use of his hard curve in relation to his fastball. In his final season with the Atlanta Braves in 2014, Kimbrel tossed his fastball 72.8% of the time and his curve 27.2% of the time. In 2018, the fastball was utilized 64.4% and his curve was used 35.3% of the time. He also saw a surprising velocity drop in both pitches in 2018, losing 1.2 MPH from 2017 to 2018 in his fastball and 0.8 MPH in his hard curve.

Kimbrel is also coming off the worst “healthy” season in control of his career, with a 12.6% rate. He also had a career-low ground ball rate, with 71.8% of balls put in play hit into the air via either line drive or fly ball.

That all is regular season. His postseason record with the Red Sox has been putrid. He was excellent in his first series with the Red Sox in 2016, but since has been rough. Overall, in 13 games and 14 innings with the Red Sox over the last 3 seasons in the postseason, Kimbrel has posted a 5.14 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, walking 13.6% of hitters and striking out just 22.7%. Yes, that’s a small sample, but that small sample comes in a time when people were very upset with Atlanta Braves pitching in 2018 and very feasibly cost Chuck Hernandez his job.

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The money

Kimbrel is still the premier free agent closer on the market, even with the issues he’s had in the postseason. The starting spot for Kimbrel would seem to be where fellow reliever Kenley Jansen got paid in 2016/2017. Jansen was two seasons younger, so getting 5 years was more likely, but the average value of the deal of $16 million is the standard to certainly start.

The estimate that MLBTR has for Kimbrel is 4 years and $70 million. That would be $17.5 million per season over Kimbrel’s age 31-34 seasons after he’s shown some concerns that should be noted. I don’t see that as a crazy number for what his market will be.

Unless Kimbrel’s market comes down significantly, the Atlanta Braves should stay away. That level of money is better committed elsewhere. If he were to consider something more like 3 years and $45-50 million, then we could talk, perhaps, but that’s even more than I’d be comfortable with committing to any reliever if I’m the Atlanta Braves.

Sadly, that means Kimbrel’s crane (and dirty beard) goes elsewhere.

Next. Braves should pursue Indians pitcher. dark

While that conclusion may frustrate a lot of Atlanta Braves fans, it’s probably the best choice for the team.

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