Atlanta Braves 2019 Free Agency Preview: Outfield

Change is brewing for the Braves and that change starts in the outfield.

The 2018 Atlanta Braves certainly produced at a level nobody (outside of a few true believers) really expected. The Braves outfield was a huge part of that success this year. Ender Inciarte‘s gold glove defense, Ronald Acuña Jr’s incredible speed and hitting prowess, and Nick Markakis’s all around contributions all played a large role in the successful season.

Acuña and Inciarte are under contract for several more years, and their place on the team is more-or-less cemented in stone.

However, Markakis’s spot has now – at least temporarily – been vacated. Alex Anthopoulos has indicated that the Braves have an interest in bringing back Markakis (and Kurt Suzuki, but that’s a topic for another day).That may now ultimately be in the cards, though.

I certainly appreciate  what Markakis has done for the team, sticking through the tough rebuild and serving as a mentor for the young guys on the team.  However, at some point you have to look at Markakis’s age in regards to the rest of the team, and see that it is nowhere close to the young core we have in place.

Yes, he had an all-star caliber season. However, in the second half, his production trailed off. According to ESPN, his second half Batting average was only .258, a far cry from his sterling .323 from before the break that earned him his first All-Star nod.

Obviously, if the top targets are gone bringing him back on a short-term deal could make a lot of sense. I’ll be listing my top four options here, in the order of how desirable they are to me.

Number one is not going to surprise anybody.

The Long Shot

It’s Bryce Harper. Absolutely no surprise here. Now, do I think this will actually happen? Unfortunately, not really. A fan can always dream though.

I don’t always approve of his attitude, but all of my concerns about that are lessened by the immense talent he possesses. This at bat by Harper from early in the year demonstrates why he is the most desirable outfielder on the market this off-season. The clip comes from MLB on twitter.

That homer wasn’t off any random pitcher, either:  that was Jacob DeGrom.

Admittedly, Harper had a poor first half of the season. He only hit .214, which is less than ideal for a player of his caliber. However, the other numbers were there. He had 23 homers and a .365 OBP, both of which are great. In the second half of the year, he really picked up his production.

Post All Star break, Harper hit .300, hit 11 more homers, and an incredible .434 OBP. I’m hoping the poor first half diminishes his value slightly, but it’s not likely to happen.

With a shark of an agent like Scott Boras around, it’s likely that Harper’s price goes way above the Braves comfort zone. If the Braves could get him down to 200 million over 10 or so years I could see a deal happening. Anything higher and it’s likely ownership won’t be willing to cough up the money required to land him.

Indian in the Outfield

Michael Brantley may not be a name many of you have thought about recently, but he just finished playing his first full season since 2014.

In that fantastic season, he batted .327 with 20 home runs, 23 stolen bases, 94 runs, .385 OBP, and 6.5 fWAR.

The year after he missed 20 games, and the numbers went down. Then he missed nearly all of 2016 after having shoulder surgery in November of 2015.  He actually returned early that year, but another rash of injuries forced him to play only 11 games that year. He returned midway through 2017 to play 90 games.

I’m sure many of you are asking yourselves why I would want a player with this kind of injury history. Well, he played a 143 game season this year, and the results were very encouraging. He batted .309 with a .364 OBP, and slugged 17 home runs.

Another reason that he is a great target for the Braves is that he is only 31.  Now, I realize that 31 (turns 32 in mid-May) is still on the wrong side of 30. However, the man he would be replacing (Markakis) is 34… and there hasn’t been a lot of mileage on him since 2015.  That age profile fits better with the age of the current team core.

I like to provide a visual for every player I analyze, so here’s video of 2 Brantley grand slams this season hit in the same way to nearly the same part of the ballpark. Clips are from the Indians official page and Fox Sports: MLB.

https://twitter.com/MLBONFOX/status/995105427296731137

Each swing is nearly exactly the same, and looks great. Our next target is from a state a little less breezy than Cleveland this time of year.

Desert Dweller

AJ Pollock is another player, like Brantley, who has a spotty injury history. His last full season was 2015 – which like Brantley’s 2014, was a fantastic year. Pollock hit .315 with 20 homers, a OBP of .367, and 39 steals. Where he separates himself with Brantley is with his defense. He won a gold glove in that 2015 season.

2015 was Pollock’s last real full season. In the years since he has played 11, 112, and 113 games. Due to this, I think he can be had at a value just like Brantley. At 30 he is also a younger option than Markakis.

The one reservation I have with Brantley is his defense. Due to the presence of 2 above average defensive outfielders (Inciarte and Acuña) I think his shortcomings could be somewhat covered up.

However, if the team adds Pollock instead, the defense could be at a new level of excellence. Due to Inciarte’s brilliance, it has been hard for anyone who isn’t him to win a gold glove in center field in the National League… yet Pollock owns one of those at the same position.

Pollock passes the eye test on offense and defense. Clips are from Fox Sports Arizona and twitter user big_inning.

The only reason I’ve ranked Brantley ahead of him is Brantley’s ability to consistently hit for average. Now, if Pollock can regain his 2015 form while remaining excellent in the field he would be a better choice overall than Brantley.

If he can be had at a discount I think he would be a great fit for the Braves to replace Markakis. Speaking of which………