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The Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: budget estimates for 2019

By Alan Carpenter

ATLANTA, GA - MARCH 29: The Heavy Hitters perform in The Battery Atlanta prior to Opening Day at SunTrust Park between the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies on March 29, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - MARCH 29: The Heavy Hitters perform in The Battery Atlanta prior to Opening Day at SunTrust Park between the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies on March 29, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /
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ATLANTA, GA. – JUNE 17: Julio Teheran #49 of the Atlanta Braves relaxes in the dugout before the game against the San Diego Padres at SunTrust Field on June 17, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA. – JUNE 17: Julio Teheran #49 of the Atlanta Braves relaxes in the dugout before the game against the San Diego Padres at SunTrust Field on June 17, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images) /

Additional Assumptions

So now we’re sitting at $74 million.

The 2019 major league minimum salary will be $555,000 (an increase of $10,000 over 2018), and Atlanta stands to see quite a few rookies and near-rookies at that level.

At this point, I have identified only 11 players for the team.  so let’s add 14 rookies at an average of $571,428.57 (because not all rookies are created equally) to fill out this temporary roster.

That crazy-looking number multiplies out to $8,000,000 dollars… $82 million total.

One more possible adjustment:  Julio Teheran.  He is under contract for 2019 at $11 million with a club option of $12 million for 2020 ($1 million buyout).  That’s really not bad for starting pitchers, but I am going to go out on a short limb and suggest that he’s actually going to be dealt elsewhere this Winter.

That ramps the payroll back to $71.555 million (by subjecting Teheran and adding another rookie).

This is the baseline number I’m going to go with.. as I’ve tabulated all of my assumptions, feel free to make your own assumptions… but it’s a fair bet to suggest that the number – at this point – is somewhere between $71 and $84 million.

What Can the Braves Spend?

For insight here, let’s see what they’ve already done in the past (via the COTS site numbers):

  • 2016:  $86.5m on Opening Day; $128.3 million at Year’s End
  • 2017:  $122.6m (OD); $133.4 million (YE).  Both are records, pending 2018 final numbers.
  • 2018:  $118.2m (OD); year end not yet known, though our friend Boggy is estimating $115.3m… which I think is going to be about $10 million light, considering COTS’ methodologies (i.e., he’s not wrong, but COTS adds things differently).

So now we have to guess.  An “increase” should reflect these factors:

  • reduced debt-servicing issues (SunTrust Park, Battery Atlanta)
  • cost overruns for the new North Port Spring Facility
  • increased revenues from Battery Atlanta (now that it’s fully up and running)
  • the nature of having a contending team

None of this should be construed to suggest that the Braves would throw money out to just anybody, either.  You might be willing to spend $25 million for a certain premium free agent, but if he ends up signing elsewhere, then you wouldn’t spend that $25 million on a lesser player just because he’s tabbed to fill the same role.

So that 2019 payroll number is… on the next page.

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