Atlanta Braves: 5 bold predictions for the NLDS
The Atlanta Braves square off with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS. What are some truly bold things that could happen?
With the Atlanta Braves as the underdog in the NLDS, some have felt that a “bold” prediction is simply predicting the Braves to defeat the Dodgers in their series. We’ve got 5 predictions that are truly bold for you here…
A particular maligned Atlanta Braves bench member will come up big
Okay, just that line isn’t all that “bold”, but the player I’m thinking of certainly is. In April, the Atlanta Braves had many heroes. One of those was the pride of Deering High School in Portland, Maine and a graduate of Vanderbilt University. That’s right, I’m talking about Ryan Flaherty.
Seriously, we all knew that Flaherty’s .300/.398/.400 line in April wasn’t a thing he could sustain all season long. Getting frustrated because he fell off from that pace seems like a very odd thing to rant and rave about as an Atlanta Braves fan.
Instead, let’s look at his career line. Flaherty is a career .216/.286/.347 hitter. He’s also a guy whose bat has never been his calling card. Flaherty is known for his glove, and right now, the Atlanta Braves have a major hole in their tremendous infield defense that has carried them all season.
Enter Ryan Flaherty. I am not saying he’ll even play a full game the entire series, but there will come a time in this series when Flaherty will come up big for the Atlanta Braves, whether it’s making a play with his glove, on the bases, or perhaps even with his much-maligned bat.
Chad Sobotka will have the best numbers of any pure reliever on the roster
While the Atlanta Braves are carrying just 5 true relievers on their 12-man pitching staff, probably the biggest surprise, if you could call it that, was the inclusion of rookie Chad Sobotka on the NLDS roster.
Sobotka blew away fans who didn’t know of him before his call-up at the end of the season with his velocity and towering size. Depending on which season it has been along his minor league journey, Sobotka has been listed at 6’7″ or 6’8″. He’s got long legs and arms that seem to be all over the place until the ball fires toward home plate.
Sobotka pitched across three levels of the minor leagues this season in the Atlanta Braves system, totaling a 2.03 ERA over 44 tames, tossing 57 2/3 innings, with 11 saves, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 29/77 BB/K ratio. He was even better at the big league level, with 14 appearances and 14 1/3 innings, posting a 1.88 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with a 9/21 BB/K ratio.
While Sobotka has little major league time under his belt, he’s already shown himself to have one of the best arms in the entire Atlanta Braves bullpen, and by the end of this series, the numbers will bear it out.
The extra starters will steal one game this series
With the depth of the Dodgers bullpen in question this season, putting together a bullpen that had 7 pitchers that were primarily starters in 2018 seemed an odd choice for the Atlanta Braves. However, that will be exactly what will steal one game for them.
Somewhere along the way, there will be an extra-inning game, and while the Dodgers will have to utilize an upcoming starter or rely on a pitcher who is fading fast as he heads out for his second and third inning, the Braves will be utilizing a starter who will be used to the role, still working his way through the lineup for the first or maybe second time, and nowhere near a pitch limit.
The Braves might not even win that extra-inning game, but taxing the Dodgers bullpen members that are used, including perhaps a future starter in the series will leave the Dodgers vulnerable for a future game, so this could be something that impacts not even one game, but multiple games positively for the Braves.
With Mike Foltynewicz only going 2 innings in Game 1, he should be ready for game 4 on short rest, but the Atlanta Braves would also have the option of piggybacking Julio Teheran and Max Fried (for instance) for the first 5-6 innings before handing the game off, hopefully with a lead.
Yes, in spite of his second-half struggles, Ozzie will be the key point of the offense this series
Frankly, there are many guys someone could pick as their random guy to be the key point as a dart throw type of pick for the key man of the offense and have a reasonable chance of being right, but this isn’t a dart throw.
We all know well of Ozzie Albies struggles in the second half. After a first half of the season that saw Albies hit .281/.318/.516, he slumped heavily to .226/.282/.342 in the second half. However, there were some definite things to note in the second half that were harbingers of things breaking out for Ozzie.
First off, over the last month, Ozzie walked 10 times in 111 plate appearances, good for a 9% walk rate. He’d not had a month with better than a 6% rate in any month this season prior to that final month of the year. He also finished September with a .213 BABIP. His final line was .198/.270/.386, but normalizing that to some degree to the .290ish BABIP he carried on the season would put him around a .265/.340/.450 line, and that’s more than fine.
Ozzie impressed me in September with his incredible hustle on a number of plays. While that’s something he’s been known throughout his brief major league time, he seemed to struggle with finding that turbo boost on the top gear when he was flying around the bases for a time there in the middle of the season. When he’s pushing the envelope on the bases, he forces a lot of bad decisions by the opposing defense.
Finally, the Dodgers will be relying on lefty arms to win this series, and while Ozzie has more raw power from the left side, he is a much more complete hitter from the right side, and you see it with his .335/.357/.548 line this year from the right side.
All that has Ozzie as my choice as the guy who will key the Atlanta Braves offense in this series.
Two former Atlanta Braves are on the Dodgers NLDS roster. One will hand a game to their former team
Alex Wood was sent to Los Angeles in the large deal that sent Hector Olivera to Atlanta. He had established himself at that point as a strong starter, with 86 appearances as a Brave, 55 of them as a starter, tossing 368 2/3 innings with a 3.10 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and a 108/337 BB/K ratio. before he was traded to the Dodgers.
He’s been in and out of the Dodgers rotation since, making the All-Star game last season, but falling out of the rotation as the year went on this year, working out of the bullpen this year in the playoffs.
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Olivera was then used as a piece to bring in Matt Kemp to the Braves. Over two seasons, Kemp played a total of 171 games for the Braves, often injured, but hitting well when he was healthy. His Atlanta Braves final line was .278/.324/.482 with 31 home runs over 708 plate appearances.
Kemp is most likely to factor into a game as a pinch hitter that ends up staying in the game in a double-switch, though the Dodgers will prefer to keep his defense off of the field. That could mean Kemp’s chance to cost the Dodgers the game could come at the plate.
Wood, however, could have multiple opportunities against the Braves in tight situations, hoping to hold a lead, and the Braves have hit him a little bit. This year, the Braves have put up a .279/.354/.442 against Wood in two games. That sort of success could be vital in a game at some point in the season.
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So what do you think? Are these crazy?? Comment below!!