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Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: a playoff atmosphere is forming

By Alan Carpenter

ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 14: Left fielder Ronald Acuna, Jr. #13 (right) and second baseman Ozzie Albies #1 of the Atlanta Braves celebrate after the game against the Washington Nationals at SunTrust Park on September 14, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 14: Left fielder Ronald Acuna, Jr. #13 (right) and second baseman Ozzie Albies #1 of the Atlanta Braves celebrate after the game against the Washington Nationals at SunTrust Park on September 14, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images) /
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ARLINGTON, VA – MAY 24: Soldiers with the U.S. Army 3rd Infantry Regiment (The Old Guard) participate in a “Flags In” event May 24, 2018 at Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Virginia. The cemetery hosts the annual event to adorn all cemetery graves with U.S. flags in advance of Memorial Day. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, VA – MAY 24: Soldiers with the U.S. Army 3rd Infantry Regiment (The Old Guard) participate in a “Flags In” event May 24, 2018 at Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Virginia. The cemetery hosts the annual event to adorn all cemetery graves with U.S. flags in advance of Memorial Day. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images) /

The War about WAR

Okay, maybe that title is too cheesy, but I want to revisit a favorite topic of mine… Team Wins Above Replacement.

I have a running theory that if your team can produce roughly a 40 WAR season, then you have a playoff contender.

This has been a solid theory – using fangraphs’ version of WAR numbers – for multiple years now, and it’s a good time to check how 2018 is faring.

Team top offensive/fielding WAR, as of Sept.15

  • OAKLAND – 27.5 fWAR
  • BOSTON – 26.5
  • CHICUBS – 26.5
  • DODGERS – 26.0
  • YANKEES – 25.8
  • ATLANTA – 24.6
  • CLEVELAND – 23.8
  • HOUSTON – 23.6
  • ANGELS – 23.0
  • ST. LOUIS – 23.0
  • MILWAUKEE – 22.9
  • WASHINGTON – 20.9
  • CINCINNATI – 20.7
  • TAMPA BAY – 19.9

That’s the Top 14 teams.  Of the current playoff contenders, only the Rockies are missing on the offensive side (which is kind of stunning, actually).  They are 21st at 12.2.

Okay, now let’s add the pitching…

Team top offensive WAR, as of Sept.15

  • HOUSTON – 27.9 fWAR
  • YANKEES – 24.2
  • CLEVELAND – 20.7
  • BOSTON – 19.9
  • DODGERS – 18.5
  • PHILLIES – 18.3
  • ARIZONA – 17.0
  • COLORADO – 16.4
  • SEATTLE – 15.9
  • TAMPA BAY – 15.7
  • MILWAUKEE – 14.5
  • METS – 14.4
  • ST. LOUIS – 14.4
  • ATLANTA – 14.3
  • WASHINGTON – 14.2 (15th club added … because it’s Washington)

First, a word on this group:  pitching WAR has a large component dedicated to FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching.  I’m not personally keen on this because it rewards strikeout pitchers a lot and generally leaves out (in my opinion) roughly 2/3rds of the game… the part where a ball is put into play.

That said, walks are penalized (which is appropriate) and non-homer hits are ignored (which seems absurd)… and this generally adds up against Braves pitchers.  But since it is a team metric and because all teams are treated the same, it’s still useful for comparison purposes so, we’re going with it in the absence of another easy-to-use metric.

Okay, so who’s missing from this Top 15 list?  Oakland is… but they are 16th at 13.0.  With their much-improved bullpen, that number has to be trending up, too.

The glaring omission, is the Cubs:  20th at 11.1.  You’d have thought their pitching would be better.  In fact, it’s about to get worse since Pedro Strop pulled a hammy while running out a grounder the other day.  Suddenly the Cubs are looking vulnerable.  (Note: reports are that he could be available for the post-season).

This is getting a bit long, so let’s flip one more page for the end of this story…

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