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Atlanta Braves Sean Newcomb: talented but inconsistent

By Fred Owens

NEW YORK, NY - JULY 03: Sean Newcomb #15 of the Atlanta Braves pitches in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on July 3, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - JULY 03: Sean Newcomb #15 of the Atlanta Braves pitches in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on July 3, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /
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ATLANTA, GA - AUGUST 16: Kurt Suzuki #24 of the Atlanta Braves celebrates a solo home run with third base coach Ron Washington #37 during the second inning against the Colorado Rockies at SunTrust Park on August 16, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA – August 16: Kurt Suzuki #24 of the Atlanta Braves celebrates a solo home run with third base coach Ron Washington #37 during the second inning against the Colorado Rockies at SunTrust Park on August 16, 2018, in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images) /

Batted ball differences

Most of us understand that line drives result in the most hits, the highest wOBA (weighted On-Base Average), and produce the most runs per out.

Likewise, infield pop-ups are the worst kind of ball in play – followed by groundballs (unless the batter possesses blazing speed and knows how to use it).

Fangraphs provides talks about batted ball results and provides league batting averages for each type of contact. These are the league averages today.

AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO Babip wOBA wRC+
GB .236 .236 .258 .494 .021 .236 .216 30
FB .230 .225 .689 .914 .459 .117 .368 133
LD .682 .677 .903 1.580 .221 .674 .675 340

StatCast’s search function provided the data to help me separate Newcomb’s performance with both halves of the Atlanta Braves catching platoon. The differences are pretty easily identified.

BIP/IP GB% LD% FB% PU%
Flowers 4.1 32.1% 20.7% 41.5% 5.7%
Suzuki 3.3 36.4% 16.0% 42.4% 5.2%

Suzuki guides Newcomb into coaxing groundballs and popups 41% of the time and stay away from line drives. That reduces opportunities for opposition runs.

When Newcomb gets behind the two catchers have different philosophies about ways to correct the situation.

The first rule of holes: Stop Digging

I noted earlier that Newcomb falls behind batters more often with Suzuki catching; it’s actually about 2½% more often.

When a hard thrower gets behind he can reach back and get a little extra. Newcomb’s fastball lives in the 93-94 range, the lower end of the range for a major league average fastball.

When Newcomb falls behind and Flowers is catching, the fastball is coming about 73% of the time. Suzuki follows the philosophy put forth by former Braves starter and Hall of Famer Greg Maddux.

"“I could probably throw harder if I wanted, but why? When they’re in a jam, a lot of pitchers…try to throw harder. Me, I try to locate better.”"

Pitching from behind in the count
  FF CH CU SL
Flowers 72.6% 21.5% 4.7% 0.6%
Suzuki 67.6% 29.8% 1.1% 1.5%

The takeaways from this little exercise are pretty obvious. In order to put Newcomb in an optimum position to win he needs five days rest and Suzuki catching.  While they are only a few percentage points apart. the fact that Newcomb has a lower ERA, sees fewer batters an inning and has a better record suggest that are significant.

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