Atlanta Braves roster looks tired: No real relief in sight

The Atlanta Braves continue to lead the NL East but their lineup’s not producing as it did earlier in the season.

The Atlanta Braves finished the first half of the season with a 52-42 record, a +70 run differential, and a .533 winning percentage. That winning percentage was twenty points lower than the Pythagorean percentage of .573 based on run differential. That .573 works out to two more wins.

Meanwhile, the Phillies (.558) and Nationals (.534) overachieved by about 30 points each. In other words, the Braves could have done better and their competitors worse; but that’s why we actually play the games.

Since the All Star Break, the Atlanta Braves are 21-15 with a +30 run differential and a .583 winning percentage which their Pythagorean say should be .603; that works out to only one more win.

Fans who watch the games know they could (should) easily have won four more games in the last 10 days, so what happened?

Short version: player fatigue and niggling injuries hampered the bullpen and the lineup but any reinforcements will have to come from within.

Atlanta Braves pitching

Three weeks ago Ben wrote that the Braves young pitchers were recording ERA’s nearly a run higher than in the first half.

On average, that’s an increase of 0.88 in ERA across those six pitchers. This is why the added arms of Brad Brach, Jonny Venters, and Kevin Gausman were so important at the deadline. . . .Even more important will be how manager Brian Snitker utilizes his young pitchers the rest of the season . . .

The arrival of Gausman stabilized the starters and took some pressure off of the bullpen. Brach looks worse on the mound than his numbers indicate.

Since arriving, Brach’s appeared in 13 games, thrown 12 1/3 innings, allowed 10 hits, walked six and struck out 14. Five of the hits and one of the walks came against the Rockies as did all four runs he’s allowed so far. Harking back to my post of relievers, six of those innings qualified as no-hit innings pitched which is ~ 50% of his innings so far.

The innings issue

ERA’s are down thanks to the arrival of Gausman and Brach and some excellent pitching by starters Touki Toussaint and Bryse Wilson. Sean Newcomb had two, back-to-back games where he pitched superbly and the game before those wasn’t awful either. Unfortunately, he followed those two games with two that weren’t good.

Part of the reason for his problem may have been the catcher.  Newcomb’s ERA is two runs higher with newly extended Tyler Flowers receiving than with Kurt Suzuki putting down the signs. The other contributing issue is fatigue.

Newcomb’s thrown 141 innings this season. He threw a combined 157 innings last year between Atlanta and Gwinnett and 149 innings in AA during 2016.  The Braves wanted to give their rotation extra rest to mitigate the issue but Kolby Allard’s stumbles made them reconsider. The six-man rotation didn’t die:  by all accounts, it will return when Toussaint is able to rejoin the team.  That helps the starters but there are innings issues in the bullpen.

Relief is just a few days away – or is it?

The best relievers so far this season are Dan Winkler, Jesse Biddle, Shane Carle, Luke Jackson and A.J. Minter. All except Jackson are near or past their previous high in innings pitched.

• Biddle’s thrown 51 2/3 innings, his previous high is 57 (MLB+AAA 2017)
• Carle’s thrown 54 1/3 innings, his previous high is 62 (AAA 2017)
• Jackson’s thrown 51 1/3 innings, his previous high is 75 ( 50 2/3 MLB, 24 1/3 AAA 2017)
• Minter’s thrown 51 innings, his previous high is 39 (24 MLB, 15 AAA 2017)
• Venters’ thrown 23 innings, his high since multiple surgeries is 23 (AA 2017)
• Winkler’ thrown 53 1/3 innings, his previous high is 70 in 2014, prior to his TJ surgery.
  • Since his surgery, he’s never thrown more than 14 1/3 innings.

Biddle, Minter, Venters, and Winkler are TJ surgery survivors. Carle’s on the DL with shoulder inflammation.  Jackson missed time with a shoulder last year and had back issues in 2016.

Vizcaino is unlikely to return at anywhere near his normal effectiveness this year if he returns at all. Moylan is no longer a quality reliever and Freeman is no longer a lucky reliever.  Neither of the last two can be counted on for anything significant.

The bullpen may get an extra arm in September, but according to Mark Bowman, roster issues mean it won’t be as much or who the fans expect.

Let’s go with McCarthy, Wright, Wilson, Toussaint and Peter Moylan as the pitchers who will be added. Shane Carle will likely eventually be activated from the disabled list, but I have my doubts about Vizcaino returning this year.