Atlanta Braves acquire slugger Adam Duvall from Cincinnati
By Fred Owens
Defense
While Duvall played some first base for both the Giants and Reds and could provide a backup for Freddie Freeman, he’s primarily a left fielder and the defensive metrics like him… a lot.
DRS | UZR | FRAA | |
2016 | 16 | 8.2 | 12 |
2017 | 8 | 4.9 | 6.8 |
2018 | 14 | 5.3 | 4.6 |
FRAA courtesy Baseball Prospectus
That DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) column? It’s currently the second highest in all of baseball for left fielders (Alex Gordon 18) and 5th highest for any player at any position (Matt Chapman 22/3B).
Want some additional context? Andrelton Simmons’ current DRS is 12.
That appears to answer the defense requirement. What about his bat?
Power and consistency
Throughout his minor league career, Duvall maintained a walk rate around seven percent and a 20% K-rate. He continued to walk at around seven percent and produce slugging percentages at close to a .490 rate. He did suffer from a problem common with power hitters, a high K-Rate: his jumped to 27% and stayed there.
In 2016 Duvall hit 33 home runs and 31 doubles and followed that with 31 homers and 37 doubles last season. He’s struggled this year in much the same way Harper struggled for the Nationals; both producing home runs but their batting averages slipped sharply. In Duvall’s case his on-base numbers dipped as well – tied in part to a 56 point drop in BAbip.
This season Duvall’s hitting just .205/.286/.399/.685 including 15 home runs and 19 doubles in 379 PA.
Splits
It’s easy to give the Great American Ballpark credit for Duvall’s homers but that’s not the case as these numbers from Fangraphs show.
Career | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | 2B | 3B | HR |
Home | .224 | .300 | .444 | .744 | 41 | 4 | 36 |
Away | .248 | .292 | .491 | .784 | 46 | 5 | 43 |
LHP | .251 | .333 | .507 | .841 | 19 | 2 | 22 |
RHP | .232 | .284 | .457 | .741 | 68 | 7 | 57 |
Baseball-Reference tells us he (almost) always hits well against the Braves.
Year | PA | 2B | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
2016 | 24 | 1 | 2 | .235 | .375 | .647 | 1.022 |
2017 | 30 | 2 | 1 | .292 | .433 | .500 | .933 |
2018 | 27 | 1 | 0 | .150 | .370 | .200 | .570 |
He likes Sun trust park as well. In six games there he’s hit .286/.375/.476/.851 with a homer and six doubles.
Comments on the trade
Though Duvall’s split isn’t as awful as some, The Athletic’s David O’Brien says the Braves plan to platoon Acuña and Inciarte in CF when the Braves face lefty hurlers.
Anthopoulos told Gabe Burns the Braves (Twitter link) wanted Duvall for a while and Reds President of Baseball Operations Dick Williams confirmed a conversation between them when the teams met in June.
Anthopoulos also made sure to say (Twitter link) how highly he values Ender Inciarte’s contribution to the team. The move is designed to improve the roster not replace a player as valuable as Inciarte.
Of note: Inciarte was asked about the change, and to his credit he signed on:
That’s a wrap
Duvall certainly provides the missing right-handed power vacancy without sacrificing defense. He can back up Freddie at first if needed eliminating the need to panic by if something should happen.
He also comes with the fifth highest number of strikeouts in MLB since the beginning of 2016 (434) but just 114 walks. That’s the tradeoff in today’s game.
I believe there’s at least one more move coming. I wrote the other day the GM was like a duck moving quietly across a pond, calm and serene on top but paddling like the devil beneath the surface.
Note that to this point, the Braves have acquired 2 relievers and now a power-hitting outfielder while using none – zero – of their actual prospect capital in any deal.
Anthopoulos initiated discussions on this trade back on June 26 and had to have done lots of backgrounds checking before that. Anyone who thought he’s been ignoring the situation just isn’t paying attention.