The Atlanta Braves could be done for 2018 if Philly gets Manny Machado
The Braves’ Quandry
"The Braves have reportedly made an offer for Orioles superstar Manny Machado, but it doesn’t appear the shortstop will end up in Atlanta prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. The Braves “are strictly on the fringes” of the Machado sweepstakes, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, who adds that they’re more concerned about upgrading their rotation."
That from mlbtraderumors.com today.
In considering a Machado trade, Philadelphia has at least 2-to-3 things going for it that Atlanta doesn’t:
- Money. They probably have more to spend on players than any other team. It could be $80-90 million, in fact, given their history. They could therefore also throw money at him to stick around for a few years, mitigating that ‘rental’ issue.
- No concerns about a ‘fan favorite’. Dansby Swanson isn’t going anywhere for a while – he’s home-grown and popular.
- A definite positional need. With the Braves, you’d either displace Swanson or Camargo. Swanson’s at least been a defensive stud; Camargo has been good enough to justify keeping at his position. Both factors are arguments against a ‘rental’ deal.
As noted, though, Philadelphia has a sizable hole at SS, and could therefore maximize such an acquisition. That’s their biggest advantage.
Playoff Odds
fangraphs has a playoff projections chart that already puts the Phils in the catbird’s seat, with a 55.7% chance of making the post-season. That said, they also give almost the identical odds to the Nationals this morning, with the Braves now floundering at just 35%.
Among this trio, the Braves now have the higher strength of schedule by a few percentage points, meaning that Atlanta has basically wasted their June opportunities to cash in on opponents that were supposedly weaker (notably: Cincy and Baltimore had been playing better before the Braves saw them).
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The real trick, though, is whether even the Wild Card playoff ticket could be had by Atlanta. As of today, those Wild Card standings are…
- Cubs or Brewers (+2.5 games)
- Atlanta (2nd Wild Card position)
- Arizona (-0.5 games)
- Colorado (-3)
- San Fran (-3)
- St. Louis (-4)
- Washington (-5)
If the Nationals make any kind of surge, and Philadelphia becomes a better foe with Machado, then Atlanta could be in a world of trouble without some specific changes of their own.
Even so, it bears repeating: the Phillies are doing this without a Machado in their lineup. Adding him could allow them to quite literally run away from the pack.
The Braves have a limited window of opportunity to make some changes. We continue to harp on what they should after (hint: all kinds of pitching), and the news reports above suggest that we aren’t telling them anything they don’t already know.
Next: Will the real Ender Inciarte please stand up?
It just might be too little and too late for 2018, for if Philly pulls off this deal, Atlanta could start thinking “2019”.