Atlanta Braves trade rumors: let’s talk about Manny Machado
I’ve admitting been resisting this discussion, but it’s starting to feel like the Braves might really be interested in the best of this Summer’s trade bait.
There are indications that the Atlanta Braves have ramped up the pace of trade discussions over the past week or so.
That alone makes good sense – and as Fred told us yesterday, comments from Alex Anthopoulos are essentially saying that he will add support for the Braves before the non-waiver trade deadline hits at the end of the month, so sure: now is the time to get busy.
We have suggested in the past that while at the helm of the Toronto Blue Jays, Anthopoulos wasn’t afraid of pulling the trigger on a ‘big’ deal, and if current rumors are true, he might very well be employing that same playbook again.
Sources: #Braves are interested in Manny Machado but presently are more focused on controllable relievers, for whom there could be a buyers’ market. @MLB @MLBNetwork
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 4, 2018
Also, there’s this from MLB.com beat writer for the Rays, Bill Chastain (emphasis added):
Count Nathan Eovaldi on several teams’ wish list. The right-hander started for the Rays Monday night and pitched in front of scouts or representatives from the Cubs, Phillies, Red Sox and Braves. All are contending teams hoping to fill a void they’ve identified.
There’s also a report – that has to be classified as anecdotal for now – that rival scouts (Orioles included) are in the checking out multiple minor league affiliates of the Braves.
At this time, all of this has to be classified as “not a surprise“, since there is a fairly clean delineation between the “buyers” and “sellers” this year, so if your Baseball Operations staff is on the ball, it would simply be prudent to go ahead and have the “sellers” scouting the “buyers”.
By doing so, all parties would already be up to speed on all of the possible offers and thus the negotiations could proceed more quickly… assuming everybody is on the ball, that is.
The alternative is that a basket of names are already being discussed.
But let’s set all of that aside for the moment. My concern today is to discuss “why Manny Machado might (or might not) make sense for the Braves”.
Let’s dig into the pros and cons…
Arguing in Favor of the Proposal…
There are actually several reasons for getting after the Orioles shortstop:
- Impact player. I’ve been raving about the year Freddie Freeman has been having. He’s slowed a bit recently, but still has a 3.2 fWAR/ .929 OPS/147 wRC+ year in progress while hitting .308 in the process.
Realize that Machado is essentially having the same kind of year: 3.0 fWAR/.937 OPS/150 wRC+ while also hitting .308. Eerily close. - If you’re going to make a trade deadline deal, then it truly makes sense only to do the most you can while respecting your team’s future.
It took almost literally until the last minute in 2017, but Justin Verlander became an Astro and proceeded to vault Houston into the World Series (5-0, 1.06 ERA after the trade). He was the impact player they needed. Arizona got J.D. Martinez (.302, 29 HR, 170 OPS+).
Some other clubs got players that were perceived to be impact players (Yankees, Sonny Gray), yet ended up not being so (5.44 ERA, 5-6 in the Bronx).
So in short: go big or go home. It’s a cute phrase, but it often applies in these cases. - Getting Machado means your rivals don’t get him. That sounds like a Captain Obvious line, but it could easily be the difference. If another team adds ‘the impact player’ and you don’t, it’s like a 2X difference when you play one another – taking the potential impact from one side and applying it elsewhere.
- You get this guy and then sign him for the long term – he turns 26 years old tomorrow – and you set up the Braves for the next decade.
…and for the Other Side…
- Whoa, whoa, whoa: let’s take a step back here. the Braves are already in 1st place without Machado. Just how much better do you really think you’re gonna be with him?
- Let me make this clear: He… Is… A… ‘Rental’. You get that? Any move you make… any price you pay… has to be made with that fact clearly in mind. Getting Machado is like buying a lottery ticket. It’s thrilling for about 5 hours until the balls are lined up and you realize that somebody’s got the jackpot… and it’s not you.
- You just got all of these shiny new (and well-performing) prospects. Are you gonna blow all of them on 1 or 2 trades? If so, then you’d better make sure that whoever you get is worth that cost… for the long term.
- Sure: you might very well make the playoffs if you add Machado this year. But with your rotation and bullpen, exactly how deep do you actually think you’re gonna progress in those playoffs? Isn’t pitching the greater need here?
And then there’s the ‘elephant in the room’ part:
Where do you think he’s gonna play?
So he wanted – and possibly demanded, depending on who you believe – to play his ‘natural position’ of shortstop this season for the Orioles. Let me just go ahead and cut to this statement from Jeff Todd at MLB Trade Rumors, made just this morning:
Braves: While the focus has long been on third base, there’s arguably a greater need at short. Johan Camargo has out-hit Dansby Swanson, after all. Regardless, an addition on the left side of the infield would deepen the overall mix. With the Braves continuing to pace the NL East, an immediate postseason push no longer seems overly hopeful at all.
Shortstop or third base?
If you check fangraphs’ defensive ratings throughout Machado’s career, a pattern jumps out:
- 2012-2017, playing 3B (primarily): UZR/150 +14.8, +21.5, +12.5, +5.8, +9.9, +2.2
- 2015 (53 innings at SS): UZR/150 -4.2
- 2016 (380 innings at SS): UZR/150 1.4
- 2018 (741 innings at SS): UZR/150 -15.5
- Totals: -8.7 at SS; 10.4 at 3B
In short (no pun intended), it’s fairly evident that while Manny may believe he’s a more comfortable fit at shortstop, he’s actually a better defender at third.
In fact, while he’s hitting better than any Braves player not named ‘Freeman’, Dansby Swanson is out-playing him at shortstop… though Machado could be expected to be better even than Johan Camargo at third base.
So the easy answer is: if the Braves actually trade for Machado, he should play third base. Camargo would return to the Super-Utility role, and the Braves’ bench suddenly gets better, too.
Unless…
Suppose this scenario unfolds: Atlanta executes a trade deal that gives the Orioles “a little more” than is necessary contingent on Machado signing a long-term extension deal with the Braves.
Would he sign if he was told “you’re playing third base“? Would he be convinced to look at the numbers and realize that third base is where his value is best? Certainly as he enters free agency after this season, all suitors would be telling him the same thing… the numbers aren’t lying.
Honestly, if the Braves are serious about such a pursuit, this question would need to be answered in full before anything else happens, for everything about this player revolves around him being good with his position, his new surroundings, and his own perception of his future.
So How Big Do You Wanna Go?
We’ve got the Bleacher Report today suggesting that it would require Kyle Wright, Luiz Gohara, Cristian Pache, and Touki Toussaint for the Braves to obtain Jake deGrom. That’s actually almost identical to the foursome that I proposed at the end of May in response to a request from a Mets writer (swapping in Anderson in place of Toussaint). Note that deGrom comes with 2 more years of control after 2018.
You’ve got JP Morosi suggesting today that the Braves would be reluctant to give up their 2 (current) top prospect arms in Ian Anderson and Max Fried for Machado while the Orioles would want 2 top arms for their third ba… er, shortstop. Whether that’s true or not, he’s proffering a price in such a trade.
Then there’s another rental… Zach Britton… to consider in the Braves’ pursuit of a more effective bullpen.
Next: Best to Review Alex's Trade Thoughts
This is all a tough call. While this is primarily about Machado, there are solid reasons to pursue any of the three noted here (I’m discounting Nate Eovaldi at this time). Any would be that ‘impact player’. All would exact a fairly significant price.