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Atlanta Braves trade rumors: let’s talk about Manny Machado

By Alan Carpenter

WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 21: Manny Machado #13 of the Baltimore Orioles waits to bat against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on June 21, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 21: Manny Machado #13 of the Baltimore Orioles waits to bat against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on June 21, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /
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BLACKTOWN, AUSTRALIA – FEBRUARY 14: An auctioneer’s gavel is seen prior to the home auction for a four-bedroom house at 230 Blacktown Road on February 14, 2015 in Blacktown, Australia. The Blacktown home sold for AUD$565,000 at auction today, smashing the reserve set at AUD$1. The Sydney home auction clearance rate is expected to remain high following the Reserve Bank’s interest rate cut to 2.25 per cent last week. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
BLACKTOWN, AUSTRALIA – FEBRUARY 14: An auctioneer’s gavel is seen prior to the home auction for a four-bedroom house at 230 Blacktown Road on February 14, 2015 in Blacktown, Australia. The Blacktown home sold for AUD$565,000 at auction today, smashing the reserve set at AUD$1. The Sydney home auction clearance rate is expected to remain high following the Reserve Bank’s interest rate cut to 2.25 per cent last week. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images) /

Arguing in Favor of the Proposal…

There are actually several reasons for getting after the Orioles shortstop:

  • Impact player.  I’ve been raving about the year Freddie Freeman has been having.  He’s slowed a bit recently, but still has a 3.2 fWAR/ .929 OPS/147 wRC+ year in progress while hitting .308 in the process.
    Realize that Machado is essentially having the same kind of year:  3.0 fWAR/.937 OPS/150 wRC+ while also hitting .308.  Eerily close.
  • If you’re going to make a trade deadline deal, then it truly makes sense only to do the most you can while respecting your team’s future.
    It took almost literally until the last minute in 2017, but Justin Verlander became an Astro and proceeded to vault Houston into the World Series (5-0, 1.06 ERA after the trade).  He was the impact player they needed.  Arizona got J.D. Martinez (.302, 29 HR, 170 OPS+).
    Some other clubs got players that were perceived to be impact players (Yankees, Sonny Gray), yet ended up not being so (5.44 ERA, 5-6 in the Bronx).
    So in short:  go big or go home.  It’s a cute phrase, but it often applies in these cases.
  • Getting Machado means your rivals don’t get him.  That sounds like a Captain Obvious line, but it could easily be the difference.  If another team adds ‘the impact player’ and you don’t, it’s like a 2X difference when you play one another – taking the potential impact from one side and applying it elsewhere.
  • You get this guy and then sign him for the long term – he turns 26 years old tomorrow – and you set up the Braves for the next decade.

…and for the Other Side…

  • Whoa, whoa, whoa:  let’s take a step back here.  the Braves are already in 1st place without Machado.  Just how much better do you really think you’re gonna be with him?
  • Let me make this clear:  He… Is… A… ‘Rental’.  You get that? Any move you make… any price you pay… has to be made with that fact clearly in mind.  Getting Machado is like buying a lottery ticket.  It’s thrilling for about 5 hours until the balls are lined up and you realize that somebody’s got the jackpot… and it’s not you.
  • You just got all of these shiny new (and well-performing) prospects.  Are you gonna blow all of them on 1 or 2 trades?  If so, then you’d better make sure that whoever you get is worth that cost… for the long term.
  • Sure: you might very well make the playoffs if you add Machado this year.  But with your rotation and bullpen, exactly how deep do you actually think you’re gonna progress in those playoffs?  Isn’t pitching the greater need here?

And then there’s the ‘elephant in the room’ part:

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