Atlanta Braves bullpen: Trade options abound but could be costly

The Atlanta Braves roll along, winning games with late-inning magic but the bullpen’s displayed some late-inning vulnerabilities.

Last week’s acquisition (theft) of Kelvin Herrera by the Washington Nationals generated a series of how will the Atlanta Braves respond posts. That’s not a hard question to answer, they’ll stick with their plan.

With all due respect to the players involved who may eventually be stars, the Nats gave up little important in their push for a title while Bryce Harper remains a National. A matching deal from Atlanta would include Derian Cruz, Jefrey Ramos, and Joselin Vallejo.

If you said “who” to names after Cruz, you aren’t alone. The Nats also took the remaining $4.4M of Herrera’s contract, something Atlanta would decline to do.

The Braves aren’t going to go George Steinbrenner crazy at the deadline, and they shouldn’t. Moves that nudge the plan forward without incurring significant debt or emptying the farm system are possible. I discussed third base last Sunday, so let’s talk bullpen.

Bullpen pieces that fit the Atlanta Braves budget

With Herrera off the market, the price for the teams willing to discuss moving their closer went up. it’s that supply/demand thing. The market is still hungry and there are fewer entree’s on the table. None of the teams with desirable assets must trade this year so it’s a seller’s market, grab your checkbook.

I’m not including expensive rentals or relievers with contracts in this discussion.  Those are offseason additions made without a feeding frenzy roiling the waters. That eliminates Brad Ziegler, Brad Brach, Jeurys Familia, Joakim Soria (he’s been surprisingly good), Raisel Iglesias, Zach Britton and Brad Hand. I’m also eliminating a closer with an affordable contract.

No Blake Treinen for you

I knew Blake Treinen ranked in baseballs top ten closers;  I found out he’s probably in the top five. Pitching for a pretty mediocre team in Oakland he’s thrown 35 innings over 28 appearances, striking out 43 and walking ten.

Treinen’s posted an 18% whiff rate, 44% chase rate, a1.03 ERA, 2.62 SIERA. He makes just over $1M the rest of this season and has two more years of team control before he becomes a VERY rich man.

Trading for him will require an  Andrew Miller level return, one top 50, one top 100 and two good B prospects.  If they felt the World Series beckoned and Treinen finished the puzzle, maybe they’d do it. They don’t see it, he isn’t the last piece, so it’s highly improbable they’ll dump that many resources not now. There are other options, one a pretty good young closer.

First some notes

I wanted pitchers with at least a 25% K rate, a low line drive rate, high popup rate, low walk rate with sub 3.50 SIERA and DRA. ERA says little about how well a relief pitcher performs.

I wanted a metric that told me more about relief pitchers. Fangraphs shutdown/meltdown stat attempts to create an alternative to saves based on WPA but admits the stats have limitations.

. . .They don’t necessarily tell you if a pitcher pitched well, but they do tell you if the team had good outcomes. . .

It tells you if the team did well, not necessarily the pitcher. They give a simple number, I looked at it as a ratio against innings pitched but it wasn’t what I wanted.

I like simple things and came up with something in the middle of the night. Maybe it’s used elsewhere but I haven’t seen it.  I call it no-hit innings pitched – NHIP.

It’s exactly that, the percentage of innings pitched where the pitcher finishes with a zero in the hits column.  I ignore walks, so in theory, he could walk the world and still look good for that inning.  I’ll adjust it later. For now, it’s a raw homemade metric’ take it or ignore it but I find it useful. Now for those pitchers.  (You may have to look below advertisement to find the link to the next page.)

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Keone Kela

Keone Kela closes for Texas. His traditional numbers don’t jump off the page but his peripherals provide a better picture. Overall His 30% K rate and 10% walk rate are solid and in save situations he’s nails. Define nails? Sure.

In save situations Kela’s thrown 16 1/3 innings, allowed seven hits, struck out 23 and walked five.

Hitters produced a .125/.193/.160/.253 line with zero runs scored.  That’s none, nothing, nada, a goose egg. He obviously converted every opportunity.

Kela’s overall NHIP rate is 56.8%, in save situations it’s 57.2%. For reference, Treinen’s is 44.8%, Kenly Jansen’s 48%, and Aroldis Chapman’s  67.3%.

He’s a fly ball pitcher who’s only allowed two homers this year even though he pitches half the time in Arlington. The homers allowed came in Cleveland – batting park factor 119 – and Seattle a heavily pitcher-friendly ballpark; the Rangers were up 5-1 at the time.

Kela’s 18% line drive rate puts him in the top one-third of qualified relievers and his 20% popup rate puts him in a tie for 12th. His 35.4% ground ball rate puts him 32 on that list just behind A.J. Minter.

Kela’s contract works out to about $600K for the remainder of the year. Arbitration starts next year arbitration starts next season and free agency becomes possible in 2022.

Last night Evan Grant reported that Kela, lefty Jake Diekman, and Adrian Beltre were available.

Kela’s value might not be as significant to the Rangers as to other teams. He has thrived (in) his first full season (closing) . . . the relative lack of experience might push him down the ladder of trade targets.

If you want a controllable closer or former closer setup man,  Kela sounds like a doable deal to me. Kyle Muller and a Ricardo Sanchez might work.

Shane Greene records the save

One day later and we're still rewatching this pitch from Shane Greene.

Posted by Detroit Tigers on Monday, April 9, 2018

Shane Greene

Shane Greene came to the Tigers from the Yankees in 2015. They began using him as a close last season and made him full-time closer this year. I don’t consider him a closer on a good team but as a middle reliever who can close now and then he fits fine.

This season Greene’s thrown 35 1/3 innings in 36 games. His best numbers look like this.

• K Rate 20%
• BB Rate 6.7%
• Line Drive rate 15.6%
• Whiff Rate 29.9%
• Ground Ball rate 44.8%
• Fly Ball rate 39.6%
• NHIP rate 42.5%

On the other hand his chase rate is just 9.4% and while his SIERA (3.05) and DRA (3.04) both say his ERA (3.57) and FIP (3.97) don’t show the true picture, they are the highest of any pitchers discussed except those of Ryan Tepera whom you’ll meet later.

Greene is a good to very good pitcher, but when he gives up runs it can turn into a crooked number. He has about $950K left this year then two more arbitration years

Non-closers . . .

I narrowed the non-closer group down to five right-handed relievers; no lefties, they ’re always in higher demand and more expensive.  A.J. Minter, Sam Freeman, and Jesse Biddle handle our left needs pretty well.

Most Talked about

Padres relievers get a lot of press and deserve it.  For that reason and the years of control they offer, the Friars will ask a lot in return for Craig Stammen and they should.  He’s owed another $1.2M this year and 2.5M next year, not horrible contracts by any means but added to the prospect cost. I’d ask but pass. Besides, Kirby Yates is the Padre I’d want.

Atlanta Braves

Yates a offers 28% K Rate, 47.6% ground ball rate, 18% whiff rate, and 44% chase rate.  His 1.95 DRA. and 2.60 SIERA and an NHIP rate of 65%.  That’s impressive and probably expensive. The Padres are farther along their rebuild path and Yate costs only $500K for the rest of this season with two more years of control. If  Braves want a Padre Yates would be their choice.

There are three pitchers having good years and separating them depends on your priorities.

Hold that Tiger

Detroit being Detroit kept Joe Jimenez off the radar for a while.  In 34 1/3 innings, he struck out 37 (26.4%), walked eight (5.7%) and posted a 2.36 DRA, 3.07 SIERA and a 53.7% NHIP.

He’s a heavy flyball pitcher(46.3% with a low line drive rate but his popup rate is near the bottom of the list. Joe makes about $285K for the remainder of the season and won’t be a free agent until 2024.

Anthony French writing for the Detroit Free Press discussed a few of the Tigers most obvious trade options. While Jimenez wasn’t mentioned, he opined about a deal for lefty Matt Boyd.

a Boyd trade seems unlikely given his emergence this season and his contract status, unless the Tigers absolutely feel his early-season success is a mirage.

Boyd’s contract status and Jimenez are essentially the same. He’s a starter and Jimenez a reliever but I’d think the Tigers would also balk at dumping an inexpensive reliever as good as Jimenez for less than an overpay.

The same article compares Tiger closer Shane Greene to Kelvin Herrera. He’s not in the same conversation as Herrera but as noted he does look interesting.