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Analyzing the struggles for Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Julio Teheran

By Dalton Skaggs

SAN DIEGO, CA - JUNE 4: Julio Teheran #49 of the Atlanta Braves stands on the mound after giving up a solo home run to Raffy Lopez #0 of the San Diego Padres during the fourth inning of a baseball game at PETCO Park on June 4, 2018 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CA - JUNE 4: Julio Teheran #49 of the Atlanta Braves stands on the mound after giving up a solo home run to Raffy Lopez #0 of the San Diego Padres during the fourth inning of a baseball game at PETCO Park on June 4, 2018 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /
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ATLANTA, GA – JUNE 25: Julio Teheran #49 of the Atlanta Braves walks off the field after striking out Asdrubal Cabrera #13 of the New York Mets to end the eighth inning at Turner Field on June 25, 2016 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA – JUNE 25: Julio Teheran #49 of the Atlanta Braves walks off the field after striking out Asdrubal Cabrera #13 of the New York Mets to end the eighth inning at Turner Field on June 25, 2016 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

Teheran’s pitch choices and results are quite interesting to analyze

He has used his curveball less and less over the years against RHB in succession with his changeup. The main combo that Teheran uses is a fastball/slider combo. The “fastball” includes your regular 4-seam fastball, and a sinker to boot. So, Teheran’s combo is a 4-seam fastball & sinker with a sharp slider.

Well, if you have paid attention to the movement Teheran has on his 4-seam fastball, you may have noticed that it moves like a 2-seam; it moves similar to the sinker in that it tails to the right, which means it tails in towards RBH’s and away from LHB’s. So batters know that there is a high chance they will either get a slider, or a fastball that tails to the RHB box.

The issue with this is that Teheran has presumably become predictable.

According to baseballsavant, Teheran has a 5 pitch combo: 4-seam fastball, sinker, slider, changeup, and curveball. I’ve mentioned the 4-seam fastball, sinker, and slider that Teheran likes to use, but what about his curveball and change-up?

Well, this is where some concerns arise. Teheran doesn’t like to use his change-up or curveball as much as I think he should. This discrepancy really started showing up in 2015 when looking at his statistics.

In 2015, Teheran threw a total of 3,261 pitches. 2,727 of the 3,261 pitches were of the 4-seam/sinker/slider variety which means Teheran threw a combined total of 534 curveball’s and change-up’s (253 curves, 281 changes).

What is interesting about this is that Teheran only threw 82 curves and 41 change ups to RBH while throwing 171 curves and 240 change ups to LHB in 2015.

The discrepancy shows itself even more in 2017 when Teheran threw 276 curves (36 to RBH, 240 to LHB) and 199 change ups (30 to RBH. 169 to LHB).

I think Teheran needs to improve his ability to throw curveballs and change-ups overall, and specifically to RHB. A good change-up to go with a sharp slider vs a RHB is essential for success as a right-handed pitcher in my opinion.

Now what’s up with Teheran’s slider?

To left-handed batters, Teheran has used his slider sparingly. In every year Teheran has pitched, he has thrown his slider more to RBH than to LHB.

In 2013, Teheran threw 594 sliders while throwing 413 to RBH and 181 to LHB. In 2015, 739 total sliders and only 198 to LHB.

Just as an example, I’m going to compare this lack of slider usage to Gerrit Cole. This is different from Cole in particular because Cole has typically averaged a 60-40 ratio of sliders thrown respectively to RHB and LHB throughout his career while Teheran is averaging what appears to be a 70-30 or 80-20 ratio of sliders to RHB and LHB respectively. 

According to baseballsavant, here are the percentages of times each pitch has been thrown throughout Teheran’s career: Four-seam (43.2%), sinker (26%), slider (18.7%), change-up (7.4%), curve (4.6%). His curveball and change-up account for only 12% of his pitches while his 4-seam, sinker, and slider account for 88% of his pitches.

Is Teheran just a road warrior?

Sure, Teheran can be classified as a road warrior, but the Braves need him to succeed at home in addition to his road success, which is something Teheran has done poorly for the Braves.

Foltynewicz and Newcomb have arguably surpassed Teheran in the rotation that he used to own. So who’s to say that other pitchers like Mike Soroka or Luiz Gohara won’t surpass Teheran in the near future?

In 17 games at SunTrust Park in 2017, Teheran had a 3-10 record with 5.86 ERA, 1.495 WHIP, 100 hits allowed and 63 earned runs surrendered. However, in 15 games away from Atlanta in 2017, Teheran had a 8-3 record with a 3.14 ERA, 1.246 WHIP, 86 hits allowed and only 33 earned runs surrendered.

More of the same thing can be seen this year in 2018 as Teheran has a 4.91 ERA and a 1.424 WHIP at home while having a 3.79 ERA with a 1.132 WHIP away.

Another thing to consider is that right now is the prime of the first half of the 2018 baseball season; the 2018 season is in full swing!

Teheran has a history of performing poorly in the first half of the season, and turning it around in the second half. The issue is that Teheran is just not performing when the Braves need him to, which is cause for concern.

This is in fact his 27-year-old season…isn’t that when the “experts” say is an MLB player’s best season?

Teheran has taken strides in the wrong direction, and he is not performing like Atlanta needs him to which begs the question…

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