Atlanta Braves offense slumping at the wrong time

Maybe it was inevitable, but perhaps the scouting reports are catching up to the Braves after their torrid start?

It might be easy to point to just better opposing pitching or maybe a bump in the road for a couple of hitters.  But the Atlanta Braves‘ offense has been reliant on hitting up and down their batting order – and there’s a dry spell that’s in progress which threatens to harm the great work that has been done thus far.

Were this merely a passing trend or something we could write off to a ‘Small Sample Sizes’, it would be one thing.  But it’s now been fairly consistent over a space that’s close to half of the season thus far and is starting to be concerning.

In short, the Braves did indeed make hay early on by exploiting the lesser teams they’ve played … and the Phillies (up until the last week).  But any club with a bit higher-tiered pitching?  That’s been a problem during May.

There are a few hitters that I specifically have in mind:

• Ronald Acuña Jr. (during the month of May up through Thursday)
  • Batting average at .211 (now sitting at .263 for the year)
  • 28 strikeouts in 93 plate appearances
  • 1 for 5 Friday night, 3 more strikeouts
  • Nice turn-around on Saturday:  3 for 5 with this included…

• Johan Camargo
  • 2 hits in his last 17 plate appearances since being named starting 3B (though 6 walks are included)
  • Batting .196for the month
  • Friday:  1 for 3 with another walk, 0-4 Saturday
  • He is getting on base:  .392 OBP during May
• Dansby Swanson
  • .214 for the month
  • He hit .216 for the month last year.
  • Of note, he had 13 RBI in May 2017; just 3 this month (though strikeouts are way down)
  • But… 1 for 4 with 2K Friday night (double off Kimbrel)
  • Saturday:  encouragement… 2 for 4 with a big home run (he will mash fastballs on the inner third of the plate and up)
• Kurt Suzuki
  • .200 for the month
  • 0 for 4 Friday; 1 for 5 on Saturday (booming double)

So how are the Braves scoring at all? Ozzie Albies has cooled somewhat, too (.263 in May); but aside from the occasional dinger from our diminutive lead-off man, Freeman and Markakis are the ones carrying the offense right now.

Overall, of course, the scoring is way down.  Here are the last several runs per game:

• 6 (Today), 2 (Friday night vs. Boston), 0, 3, 0, 10, 8, 0, 4, 2, 6, 4, 10, 3, 9, 5, 1, 3, 2, 4

Now let’s check that scoring while eliminating all of the Marlin games:

• 6, 2, 0, 3, 0, 4, 2, 6, 5, 1, 3, 2, 4

That takes us back to the 4th of May – only three times getting beyond 4 runs against non-Marlin opponents… twice if you eliminate all sea creatures (the Rays).

What’s going on?

It could simply be that word is getting around and “the book” is being written on some of these young hitters.

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For example, I checked up on the heat map for Acuna for the period of this month alone.  He is still getting a few hits, of course, but it appears that pitchers are taking advantage of his natural aggressiveness at the plate – particularly on fastballs – but throwing them out of the strike zone – primarily low and away.

With that happening – and his tendency to chase – Acuña needs to resist his naturally aggressive tendencies and take some of these pitches.  That’s the only way to bring the opposing pitchers back to the strike zone.

In the specific case of his Saturday home run, that ball was 97 mph and painted on the outside edge of the plate, but it was up – belt high.  Those he is still able to leverage, but is rarely seeing.

I will stop here

The 6 runs scored against the Red Sox on Saturday are indeed a hopeful sign.  We’ll revisit this as time marches on, but one thing is clear:  Atlanta has done what they have accomplished because every part of the lineup has provided consistent support.  Without this, they cannot put together enough hits to sustain rallies and manufacture enough runs.

Next: Some Better Pitching with a side of Hanley?

When this happens… the sky is the limit.  The real question I have is how the Front Office will react if the slump does continue.