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Atlanta Braves release Jose Bautista, so what’s next?

By Alan Carpenter

CHICAGO, IL - MAY 14: Jose Bautista #23 of the Atlanta Braves runs the bases after hitting a three-run homer against the Chicago Cubs during the fifth inning while wearing the #42 to commemorate Jackie Robinson Day on May 14, 2018 at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, IL - MAY 14: Jose Bautista #23 of the Atlanta Braves runs the bases after hitting a three-run homer against the Chicago Cubs during the fifth inning while wearing the #42 to commemorate Jackie Robinson Day on May 14, 2018 at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images) /
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ATLANTA, GA – MAY 06: Shortstop Johan Camargo #17 slides back into third base in the ninth inning during the game against the San Francisco Giants at SunTrust Park on May 6, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA – MAY 06: Shortstop Johan Camargo #17 slides back into third base in the ninth inning during the game against the San Francisco Giants at SunTrust Park on May 6, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images) /

“I Don’t Know” is on Third

So we’re back to where we were in early May.  The Braves are going to back to where we thought they’d be at the start of the year:  Johan Camargo.

In the interview you can review on the prior page, Anthopoulos refers to some of the factors weighed by their staff in order to come to the decision to give Camargo the starting nod at third.

Clearly, his defense is superior to that of Bautista.  But the sense is that his bat should be coming around, too.  AA cited things like exit velocity and “bad luck” among those factors suggesting that Camargo’s offensive upside was still to be realized.

What Factors?

Let me now go back to that list of 380 hitters with 40+ plate appearances.  Now let’s reduce the number by including only the third basemen (at least those that fangraphs are recognizing as third basemen).

On this list, there are 57 names.  Camargo is 42nd in hitting average on this list at .226 (Bautista was 55th, by the way – Chase Headley is 57th and was also released this week).

But Camargo at least has a positive fWAR (0.3) that reflects his defensive skills along with his generally more-well-rounded offensive numbers:

  • 112 on the scaled runs-created metric (wRC+)
  • .335 scaled on-base average (wOBA; .368 regular OBA)
  • BABIP of .261.  Now those who know my writing realize that I despise BABIP in general… in this case, I’ll also point to more context…

Last year, Camargo was noted for “crushing” the ball.  12th in the majors for ground ball exit velocity (89.1 mph).  At the moment, he’s 54th for overall EV with 91.7 mph.

EV on grounders?  He’s 21st with a number (92.3 mph) that’s higher than in that 2017 article.

For context, Ronald Acuna Jr is sitting 6th on that list with 94.7 mph on grounders.

In other words, Camargo is ripping the ball, but getting little to show for it at times… thus the BABIP is telling us truth in the context of his exit velocity numbers… the contact isn’t weak.

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