Atlanta Braves release Jose Bautista, so what’s next?
It’s hard to fault the attempt, but this was an experiment that just didn’t really ever gain any traction.
The third base position is – once again – in a state of flux for the Atlanta Braves as Jose Bautista was released on Sunday. Now the question is this: where to go from here?
Bautista was given a ‘solid’ by former boss Alex Anthopoulos in signing him originally, and then again by bringing him to the majors, but it was most certainly going to be an uphill climb as Bautista had three strikes against him before ever getting started:
- 37-1/2 years old
- A record of declining performance over the past 3 seasons… even taking a 40 HR performance in 2015 into account
- A ‘new’ position – having not played 3rd base with any kind of regularity in years.
I admit wondering – having just watched the conclusion of Sunday’s epic comeback win – where Bautista would have been in this lineup and whether any comeback would have happened had he not been released.
Perhaps that thought isn’t fair – you truly never know what might have transpired once you change the equation that much. But the fact is that Bautista simply wasn’t doing what had been hoped: providing lineup protection for Freddie Freeman.
Sure: he ran into 2 homers over 40 plate appearances. But besides that were just 2 singles and a double… with 12 strikeouts against 5 walks for a .143 average.
The only other hitter on the team this season with at least 20 PA doing worse? Peter Bourjos.
In fact, out of 380 batters in the majors matching his 40 PA or more, Bautista’s batting average ranked 369th.
That explains Bautista’s loss of playing time recently… and his defense wasn’t exactly keeping him in the lineup either.
Alex Anthopoulos explained the move to the media today… and it appeared that he was pained to even report the news (in strong contrast to the body language he exhibited during Friday’s interview session). It’s clear that he wanted this signing to work… and it’s a disappointment to all concerned that it didn’t happen.
The Atlanta #Braves today granted 3B José Bautista his release. Johan Camargo will be the everyday 3B. RHP Lucas Sims has been recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett. pic.twitter.com/yKjgghnlhe
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) May 20, 2018
It would be easy to pile on here and declare ‘I told you so’ based on earlier comments on this subject. But that would be wrong. Bautista is a pro and has enjoyed an excellent career. The photo used for this piece is from what could be his last jog around the bases – May 14th at Wrigley Field.
I won’t fault him for trying once more and I won’t fault the Braves for giving him the opportunity. He deserves that respect for the effort.
“I Don’t Know” is on Third
So we’re back to where we were in early May. The Braves are going to back to where we thought they’d be at the start of the year: Johan Camargo.
The Braves have released Jose Bautista. Anthopoulos says Camargo will be the everyday third baseman.
— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) May 20, 2018
In the interview you can review on the prior page, Anthopoulos refers to some of the factors weighed by their staff in order to come to the decision to give Camargo the starting nod at third.
Clearly, his defense is superior to that of Bautista. But the sense is that his bat should be coming around, too. AA cited things like exit velocity and “bad luck” among those factors suggesting that Camargo’s offensive upside was still to be realized.
What Factors?
Let me now go back to that list of 380 hitters with 40+ plate appearances. Now let’s reduce the number by including only the third basemen (at least those that fangraphs are recognizing as third basemen).
On this list, there are 57 names. Camargo is 42nd in hitting average on this list at .226 (Bautista was 55th, by the way – Chase Headley is 57th and was also released this week).
But Camargo at least has a positive fWAR (0.3) that reflects his defensive skills along with his generally more-well-rounded offensive numbers:
- 112 on the scaled runs-created metric (wRC+)
- .335 scaled on-base average (wOBA; .368 regular OBA)
- BABIP of .261. Now those who know my writing realize that I despise BABIP in general… in this case, I’ll also point to more context…
Last year, Camargo was noted for “crushing” the ball. 12th in the majors for ground ball exit velocity (89.1 mph). At the moment, he’s 54th for overall EV with 91.7 mph.
EV on grounders? He’s 21st with a number (92.3 mph) that’s higher than in that 2017 article.
For context, Ronald Acuna Jr is sitting 6th on that list with 94.7 mph on grounders.
In other words, Camargo is ripping the ball, but getting little to show for it at times… thus the BABIP is telling us truth in the context of his exit velocity numbers… the contact isn’t weak.
Experiment, Part 2
Johan Camargo had a slow start to the season due to injury. 4 different third basemen have been run out to the position for the Bravos already in 2018: Camargo, Bautista, Ryan Flaherty, and Charlie Culberson.
None of them are named Rio Ruiz, by the way.
We started the season with indecision. We’re where we are now because the Braves clearly continue to struggle with a decision on this particular decision.
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Of note: if Atlanta had any designs on promoting Austin Riley to the majors quickly, this would be the time to make that happen… and clearly it isn’t being done.
Today is May 20. Atlanta has played 45 games.
There are 48 more games before the All-Star Game (yeah – more than I thought, too) and another 10 after that until the July 31st trading deadline hits.
I believe Johan Camargo’s third base lease runs somewhere between now and July 15th (the last game before the All-Star break). He thus has that long to show whether he’s an asset or a liability.
That’s a significant amount of time – and even if he ultimately isn’t “enough” (however the team opts to define that term), he should still be a valuable threat off the bench.
Once early-to-mid July rolls around, that’s “trade season” and if the Braves are continuing to surprise and impress, then things will happen on the trade front if a change needs to be made. Anthopoulos so much as said so in that interview from Friday.
By the way: that third base market? Might be easily navigated this year. Buster Olney calls it a “Seller Beware” market… a perfect set up for Atlanta.
Josh Donaldson? Mike Moustakas? Others not named ‘Machado’ (too expensive)?
Next: Let's Listen to what Alex Had to Say
The Braves will have seen enough to be able to make a decision by then, but for now… it’s Camargo’s job to lose.