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Atlanta Braves and the 2019 payroll outlook – Bowman weighs in

By Alan Carpenter

PHOENIX, AZ - Justin Upton #8 and his brother BJ Upton #2 of the Atlanta Braves - from a time in which the team 'spent the money'. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
PHOENIX, AZ - Justin Upton #8 and his brother BJ Upton #2 of the Atlanta Braves - from a time in which the team 'spent the money'. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /
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LAS VEGAS, NV – NOVEMBER 13: Construction workers install the first of 800 bollards near the Hawaiian Marketplace on the Las Vegas Strip to help protect pedestrians from vehicles on November 13, 2017 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images)
LAS VEGAS, NV – NOVEMBER 13: Construction workers install the first of 800 bollards near the Hawaiian Marketplace on the Las Vegas Strip to help protect pedestrians from vehicles on November 13, 2017 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images) /

More-or-less On Track

That remains consistent with our report from early March, though it appeared that Liberty Media was operating under the belief that the Braves Group would be out from under the scrutiny of MLB’s financial watchdogs after 2017, and thus no longer subject to any ‘remedial measures‘.

McGuirk seems to be backing off of that line a bit in that end-of-March interview, and there are likely a few reasons for that:

True:  increased revenues will help with these issues, but the Braves do have to wait for those revenues to catch up to their expenditures.  There are still some expected revenue sources in the Battery just now coming on line, for instance (tenant occupancies in the office towers and apartment complexes).

Which all leads us to the discussion of the day:  what about 2019?

2019 Indeed

Where I was going to go with this topic was from the other direction:  what can the Braves spend money on in 2019?

Let’s start with Bowman’s figures.  Bowman likely has probed a few folks in the Front Office about further details that McGuirk would not have shared.  I think his numbers are close, but let’s see if we can resolve them.

  • Committed contracts:  $38 million  (3 players)
  • Arbitration Estimates:  $13 million (4 players)
  • Pre-arbitration players:  $10 million

Now right away, you’ll say “wait a sec… Bowman said something about $1 million.”

Not exactly.  Note that as an absolute minimum, there will be 18 more players that will have to be paid the major league minimum, scheduled to be $555,000 in 2019… that multiplies to $9.99 million… rounded to $10 million.

So the absolute least the Braves can spend on a major league payroll in 2019 is $61 million.  The good news is that all ‘dead’ money will be off the books by then… excepting $250,000 going to our friend Dan Uggla.

If Bowman is right, and the payroll will stand between $120-130 million next year, then…

  • That’s still a notable increase from this season’s $105-108 million (the exact number still TBD, of course… Jose Bautista could get $1 million, for instance).
  • It represents $60-70 million above that $61 million minimum floor we just saw above.
  • It’s  not “$50 million” though – the figure Bowman heard most recently.  So there’s a bit of a discrepancy to that.

$130 million might put Atlanta around 16th among MLB teams today (though that source for 2018 data ignores dead money considerations and did not have recent signings – such as Jake Arrieta with the Phillies).

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