Atlanta Braves have I don’t know on third

StatCast’s view of Camargo

The advent of StatCast provides more data for use in evaluating a player’s hitting. Using Launch angle and exit velocity compared to historical results, it’s possible to predict with a high degree of accuracy whether a ball in play will be a single, double, triple or home run. Add in real world strikeout and walk data to those projections and it’s possible to calculate a player’s expected wOBA or xwOBA  with a high degree of accuracy.

Based on his launch angle and exit velocity, Statcast projects Camargo should have finished with a .261 batting average, 38 points below the .299 recorded. His .337 wOBA also exceeded his projected (xwOBA) of .297 by 40 points. That makes him an extremely luck batter.

Atlanta Braves

Last November Dominikk85 writing for Fangraphs provided a list of the top 10 luckiest and unluckiest hitters last season.  Camargo doesn’t fall into the top ten luckiest players, but of the 329 players who saw 900 pitches he does rank 36th.

Speedy players like Ender Inciarte, Dee Gordon and Jose Altuve almost always land on the lucky list because they beat out hits that would be outs for most players.

Camargo was 15 for 79 on balls hit to the infield,  good for a .199 BA.  His remaining 57 hits in 162 at bats were of the outfield variety and good for a .352 BA.

Conclusions

Hitters improve with experience and certainly this evaluation is based on a small sample size. On the other hand the numbers projected by Statcast were almost exactly the numbers he posted in the minors.  Could he suddenly become Martin Prado? Probably not.

Good hitters will always hit; Prado hit well throughout his short minor league career. When he reached the majors it was more of the same with gradual improvements each year.  Camargo’s minor league numbers lead to projection of him becoming something like a .265/.315/.335 hitter, at least in the short-term.  Those numbers make him a utility man rather than an everyday player.

This afternoon on MLB Network radio, Alex Anthopoulos covered a lot of ground including third base options. His comments indicate that it looks like a battle between Camargo and Ruiz in spring training, but he didn’t rule out adding a veteran either.

That’s A Wrap

I’ve been a fan of Camargo’s glove since he made his debut. His defense makes him a valuable asset for short-term work anywhere on the infield and he always plays the game hard. He’s at his best in short bursts where pitchers can’t zero in on his weaknesses. Conversely, those short bursts also make it hard for him to get his rhythm at the plate.  Perhaps one day he’ll flip the switch and change that.

That’s why the Braves keep probing for an answer at third base. Kemp’s departure leaves the lineup with less pop than last season and the real possibility that both Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki won’t repeat last season’s success; Suzuki came in at number 35 on the luckiest hitter list I mentioned above.

We’ve discussed options here before and this close to spring training it looks like AA is waiting to see who doesn’t have a chair when the music stops. Currently Todd Frazier looks like landing back with the Yankees to back up third and first.

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There’s been surprisingly little interest in Mike Moustakas though the Cardinals, Mets, Phillies and even the Indians (if they could move Jason Kipnis) would be interested for the right price. I doubt that price comes to a level the Braves would consider.

Josh Harrison could be a short-term trade fix as could Eugenio Suarez, Jedd Gyorko (if Moose ends up in St Louis) and of course Martin Prado’s name keeps popping up. At this point all those guys are like us, just waiting for the hammer to fall.