Atlanta Braves interested in an outfielder
By Fred Owens
Downtown goes Frazier
Frazier homered in his big league debut but the swing and miss scouts predicted ventilated a few ballparks. When he did connect however, he hit the ball hard; 17 of his 31 hits were of the extra base variety (four homers, four triples and nine doubles.)
While the highlight real above shows some very nice catches, defensively the only solid metric I have comes from Baseball prospectus. Their FRAA has never considered him a great defender rating him average or slightly below throughout his career. Their overall evaluation concludes he’s a risky, enigmatic talent.
"Future Grades: Hit 45, Power 50, Base running/Speed 55, Glove 50, Arm 55, Overall 50"
"Corner OF with lightning quick bat and mostly average tool set. . Bat speed can generate power, but more of a mistake hitter. . .Consistency in hit tool will need to improve for power to realize. Glove/arm grade out as future average; athleticism makes him capable. Above average speed that aids athleticism. . . . Capitalizing on potential more risky on this enigmatic talent."
Conclusions?
I’ve read two or three reports on this idea. Most consider Teheran an overpay and I agree for a couple of reasons.
Since moving to AAA, Frazier’s BAbip rests at or below .300. That suggests that he is, as one scouting report suggests, a mistake hitter. Lots of mistake hitters have good careers of course and he’s young and could find a way to change that. It’s said he has a ‘football mentality’ ; generally considered a good thing.
His future success rests on solidifying his talent and morphing what appears to be a swing hard and hope you connect attitude, into a swing when you know you can connect.
The other issue is keeping the Braves rotation down to single digit starters this year. Trading Julio removes a guy who takes the ball every fifth day and throws close to 200 innings. He’s also inexpensive at $8.1M this season; any replacement would probably cost as much or more.
That’s a Wrap
I’m not against offering a package based on Joey Wentz and a couple of low-level players for Frazier. It’s possible that simply taking Chase Headley’s contract and offering Wentz would be enough. But what if we wait?
Will this move change the way the Rays, Orioles and Blue Jays view the coming season? Does Stanton’s arrival in New York make them think again about rebuilding?
The Orioles for example, were going to struggle to contend anyway, this makes their chances significantly worse. The same could be said for Toronto and of course Tampa. Will they decide to go full rebuild now?
I’m not interested in paying a huge price in prospects to have Josh Donaldson or Manny Machado for a year. If however, I could get Marcus Stroman or Chris Archer I’d be very interested. AA knows that division well and by now understands where the Braves’ rebuild stands. How he approaches this and other opportunities could determine how the team fares next season