Atlanta Braves trade away promising OF Randy Ventura

We’ve all been looking forward to the next big Braves trade this Summer… but what came down on Friday was certainly a surprise.

Of all the deals we have been contemplating that the Atlanta Braves could be involved in this Summer, this one was not expected:

Okay… so what happened here? Let’s go through all of the reasons why such a trade is perplexing and some reasons why it might have happened.

The Penalty Box

If you’ve been paying attention at all, you’ll recall that the Braves (intentionally) over-spent their International Market spending cap a year ago to bring in players like Kevin Maitan and Abrahan Guitierrez.

The monies spent then brought in a whole pile of teen-aged prospects – 33 in all – during that 2016-17 signing season.  That’s a bigger number than usual, but not unprecedented.  The previous season saw the Braves grab 23 players.

But because of that spending, the Braves were handed the highest penalty that could be imposed at that time:  a 2-year restriction in which no International player could be inked for more than $300,000.

Now that penalty is fairly severe, but not a total show-stopper. Many excellent players have been grabbed within those parameters, including both Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna.

So it isn’t like International Operations Director Marc Russo or Latin American scouting Director Mike Silvestri or International Scouting Guru emeritus Gordon Blakeley opted to take a 2-year vacation.  In fact, you can bet that they’ve been planning on this detour for a while now.

For one thing, the Braves still need players to fill out their Dominican Summer team and hey – since these kids are mostly 16 years old, you never know what you might find later, given consistent professional coaching.

So mostly what that monetary limit means is that the Atlanta Latin scouting team have to look harder in their quest for the next Pache, Cruz, Guitierrez, Maitan, … or Ventura.

The Math

With the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, the numbers have changed in 2017.

Revenue-sharing clubs – most of the so-called small market teams – get to spend $5.75 million internationally between now and next June.

A middle-group of teams get to spend $5.25 million.  The large market clubs are held to $4.75 million.  This last group (16 teams) includes Atlanta.

So even if the Braves gave $300K to everybody they signed, that’s about 16 players.

Apparently they still needed more.

The Cincinnati Reds are another team that blew the budget last year – signing 44 players in the process. This year, the Redlegs have apparently decided to back down their spending significantly, and their restraint has now allowed the Braves a chance to expand their own.

The new rules permit clubs to add up to 75% more spending power via trades… and they can also jettison their rights to spent every dollar they in their kitty if they choose to be so (Orioles, *cough*) foolhardy.

The Possible Reasons

Here’s the best ideas I can come up with from the Braves’ perspective… roughly in order of likelihood:

• The Latin scouts found somebody that *really* want. The only explanation for acquiring international spending power – especially now that the major part of the signing season is done – is that they want/need to spend the money.  This also suggests that despite Baseball America’s tracker, the Braves have probably spent most of their allotment already.
• Lack of progress? In theory, more power could still come later from Ventura, but at 5’9″, it’s honestly a crapshoot, but perhaps the Braves were looking for more from him than a singles hitter.
• Duplication?  Future blockage? Possible.  Suddenly, there’s several outfield candidates budding in the minors, so perhaps Atlanta made the call that cashing him in now was a good play.
• A disciplinary issue? Possible, but I’d honestly say “not very likely at all“.  For one thing, the Reds would have to be informed and if the Braves had opted to dump him, then it’s questionable whether any other club would want him under such circumstances.

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On the other hand, the Reds might be seeing a timing thing in their own system and chose to acquire someone who might have the chance of replacing Billy Hamilton in a few years.  So it may very well have been Cincinnati taking the aggressor role here in targeting Ventura.

As noted, we still don’t know exactly how much of Cincy’s pool that Atlanta acquired today.

The maximum possible pool acquisition for this year would be $3.56 million and change, but I kinda doubt we’re talking about anything like that.

Getting $1 to $1.5 million (that range is my speculative guess) still would be significant… and would give Atlanta a chance for anything between perhaps 5 to 12 more players or so.

Note that getting this additional spending power means absolutely nothing unless it is actually used.

MORNING UPDATE:

Next: A Mottely Addition

So while we simply do not know all of the details, we’re left to hope and trust that the International team that has done so well in the past few years are still doing great work in the Latin realms of baseball.