Thoughts about two new Atlanta Braves’ trade rumors

Braves Scouting Tigers’ Pitchers

This is actually the one I’m most fascinated with.  Jeff mentioned it this morning in the chop. , but it’s based on this tweet from Mark Bowman:

Lemme throw some numbers down real quick for you about these guys:

• Justin Verlander.  Friday:   5.1 IP, 3H, 3R, 2ER, 5K.  L (5-7).  4.66 ERA/season
• Michael Fulmer.  Saturday:  8.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 3K.  W (10-6).  3.06 ERA/season

Maybe more important, though, are these numbers:

• Verlander.  Age 34, $28m in 2017-2019; $22m vesting opt for 2020 based on Cy Young finish in 2019).
• Fulmer.  Age 24½, not even arbitration eligible until 2019.

Personally, I believe the Tigers would be nuts to trade Fulmer for almost any kind of prospect haul.  He’s having a break-out year, that much is certain, but I’m also not sure that this will be his peak, either.

Fulmer’s minor league numbers suggest that he’s still got room for growth and improvement as he’s dominated at most levels he’s played at on the way to the majors.

So why are we scouting both pitchers?  Are the Braves wasting their time?

This Can’t Mean What I Thinking, Right?

This could still be tricky, but we’ve seen Coppy pull this stunt before.  Hang with me for a bit – it’s more than a nutty, but … let’s just see.

He might be interested in taking both pitchers from Detroit.

Now full disclosure – I’m that guy (along with co-writer Ryan) who advocated for trying to trade for Verlander when the Tigers first floated this idea of a sale of their higher-value contracts, so I’ve liked the idea of JV for a while.

But remember: this GM is the same one that took one of my ideas from a year ago and used it to get rid of Hector Olivera while acquiring Matt Kemp (my idea had been to do the same with Ryan Braun).  San Diego bit on that idea – Milwaukee didn’t.  But the idea of “paying” for a contract to land a player isn’t new.

Detroit would want a Jose Quintana-esque haul for Fulmer alone… more than any team should probably consider to trade for anyone.  But they also need serious salary relief, and that’s where the Verlander angle comes in.

If the Braves believe the Fulmer is going to become ace material, then a trade would land him for another 5 years of control.  That kind of time make him worth giving up a lot of prospects.

Now the Tigers were originally said to want prospects and the full contract for Verlander.  That may or may not be terribly realistic, but a package deal – which admittedly would be the blockbuster deal to end all blockbusters – might somehow work for the Braves.

What would this look like?  This is strictly a guess…

• Detroit would get a package headlined by Julio Teheran, Ozzie Albies, a top pitching prospect, and 2-3 “second tier” prospects.  It’s completely unknown if that would be enough as we’re in completely uncharted territory here.
• Braves get Fulmer and Verlander – and all of JV’s contract.

Detroit gets Teheran for multiple cheap years and they also get a chance to replace Ian Kinsler, who is done after 2017 ($15 million contract today and an option that need not be exercised).  So in 2018 they save $43 million over 2017… and probably a higher draft position next year.

The Braves get out of this a rotation that looks like Verlander, Fulmer, Foltynewicz, Newcomb, and Dickey (assumes Garcia is dealt) for the rest of the year… and a rotation core for several years.

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Would the Braves try to pull off such a thing?  The idea of getting a YCA (“Young Controllable Arm”) might be the rationale to at least ask the question… there are so few of them around.

Having Verlander around for a couple of years to mentor the kids also makes great sense.

Of course, Verlander has a full no-trade rights, so if necessary, I would absolutely be on board with at least trying to pry Fulmer away alone.

If Verlander wants his option picked up to approve a deal, that might be tricky, but some negotiations might ensue… if Detroit if even amenable to a deal in the first place.

Remember:  95% of all trade rumors end up being absolutely nothing.  But you’ve gotta start somewhere.

Next: The Early News on That Scouting Report

But don’t think this one is my idea out of thin air – Bowman’s tweet suggests to me that Coppy is already thinking well ahead of us all here.  We’re just trying to read the tea leaves here.