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Atlanta Braves Morning-ish Chop: the developing trade market

By Alan Carpenter

NEW YORK, NY - JULY 03: Marcus Stroman #6 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on July 3, 2017 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - JULY 03: Marcus Stroman #6 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on July 3, 2017 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /
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CHICAGO, IL – JUNE 25: Starting pitcher Sonny Gray #54 of the Oakland Athletics delivers the ball against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on June 25, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

The New Paradigm

This kind of thinking seems to be the new philosophy for the league.  The ‘rental trade’ or ‘quick fix’ is now passe, the ‘controllable asset’ is trending.

In years’ part, the elite “rental guys” have been traded freely at the trade deadline (David Price, Yoenis Cespedes, Cole Hamels, Troy Tulowitzki, Johnny Cueto in 2015; Jonathan Lucroy, Rich Hill, Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman in 2016).

That could still happen this year, but it’s certainly neither the expectation nor the goal for many organizations.

There will always be a market for some rental guys.  For example, Brandon Phillips is going to be so cheap as to make his acquisition a no-brainer for somebody, but he’s an exceptional case.

It had been that you could consider getting a guy like David Price either at mid-season as a rental with a chance for an extension or just wait for the off-season and compete for his services as a free agent.

Now teams are thinking much more about the long-term only… hence why the Braves are said to be scouting frontline starters now – there may not be a chance to get the better controllable guys in the off-season.

Driving the Point Home

Here’s an illustration of what I think is going on:

Let’s say you are in need of a car.  You find a deal that gets you a nice car, but you can only have it for six months… at a price you’ll still be paying for over the next 2 years.  And after the six months, you can’t even sell it – it’s simply no longer yours.

Wouldn’t you rather get a vehicle you can keep for 3-5 years… for a cost only marginally higher?  That’s more or less what’s going on here:  teams have figured out how to do the math.

New vs. Used Car Prices

Back to Peter Gammons, quoting that same personnel director from before:

"“What Boston traded for Chris Sale isn’t going to be traded because Sale was unique—arguably the best pitcher in the league, affordable, under 30 years old, and the Red Sox had five really good position regulars between 22 and 26. Is someone willing to pay for [Sonny] Gray or Jose Quintana what the Royals were willing to pay for Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist when they had their window to win their first world series in 30 years? I don’t think so.”"

What teams will have to mutually decide upon is the price of years vs. talent.  Chris Sale’s deal represents the Gold Standard to which all deals this Summer will be measured against – since he brought years AND elite talent.

Most teams simply don’t even have the kind of premium resources (Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech and 2 others) to have been competitive with the Red Sox for Sale, but that should not be the same price level for a Sonny Gray or Jose Quintana.

The 2017 price level will be determined by a lot of behind-the-scenes negotiations between now and July 31st.  However, given the supplies and the demands, I expect the prices will end up higher than perhaps expected.

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