Atlanta Braves Midseason Top 50 Prospects: 11-20

Atlanta Braves Midseason Top 50 Prospects

Every season, I have tried to bring a midseason update to the Atlanta Braves top 100 prospect list that I work on every winter. This year will be a little earlier than most, but we’ll discuss the reasoning for that more in the Friday AQA post.

The focus here is on an increasingly difficult task, narrowing a list to 50 Atlanta Braves prospects. The Braves’ system is one of the top 5 in the game without question, and while there are some elite prospects at the top end, what makes the Braves’ system so incredible is the depth within the system – players who are not even on this list are viable guys that could be major league contributors, if even in a bullpen or off the bench.

We’ll look at all players within the system currently, including those who were recently drafted, but only those who have signed and been assigned. The guys who I will be excluding are those who are or have been in the majors and likely to surpass their rookie limits this season if they haven’t already. That meant that guys like Rio Ruiz, Johan Camargo, Luke Jackson, Sean Newcomb, and Jason Hursh did not make this list. While only Newcomb would have factored in the top of the list, it’s still important to note when you do not see the other names, that is why.

That said, any guys who may make it to the majors possibly this season and burn through their rookie eligibility would require projection, so I won’t exclude them as we just do not know.

The schedule will be as such:
Monday – 50-41
Tuesday – 31-40
Wednesday – 21-30
Thursday – 11-20
Friday – AQA (with a BIG announcement!), Top Ten, and a post with the full list and other names to know outside the top 50

I think that’s enough qualifiers for now. Enjoy, and feel free to comment below!!

Next: 19, 20

20. Drew Waters, OF, GCL Braves

When the Atlanta Braves nabbed righty Kyle Wright with the #5 overall selection in the draft, many thought that would end up being the focus of the entire draft due to the likely high bonus number that he’d require. Instead, the Braves went out and got the #1 overall player from the state of Georgia as well.

Waters is from Woodstock, Georgia, and he’s been part of the showcase circuit most of his teen years. He’s a switch-hitter, and he’s physically not far off from his projection at 6’2″ and 190 pounds, with a frame that will likely take on 10-20 more pounds in his peak before adding “old man” weight as he ages (don’t you hate THAT weight?!).

Waters has impressive tools across the board, with scouts willing to go to a plus current grade on his speed, arm, and defense, and his raw power has drawn a future plus grade along with plus bat speed. His biggest variance among scouts is the power aspect.

I got two offensive comps on Waters that I thought showed that divergence in opinion, but I think Braves fans would be supremely happy with either outcome – former Orioles infielder Brian Roberts, and former Yankees outfielder Bernie Williams. If his power ends up more “pound the gaps” power like Roberts (who AVERAGED 46 doubles per season from 2004-2009) or if he develops more into a contact and medium power guy like Bernie was for a decade and a half, that would be premium outcomes in both directions.

19. Brett Cumberland, C, Florida Fire Frogs

I understand that many will feel this is too low on Cumberland, but he’s also a guy who has moved up from #44 to #19 in a half season so far, so that’s a big jump already, and it’s almost exclusively on his bat at this point.

Cumberland came to the Atlanta Braves as a switch hitting catcher that’s under 6′ tall and filled out (listed 205 pounds, could be a hair larger than that), so he was expected to hit immediately and need to work on the catching. Instead, hitting was even a struggle in his draft year last year, hitting .216/.317/.340. Even through April, he was struggling with the bat, with a .10/.371/321 line for Rome.

He turned it on in May with an incredible power display along with patience at the plate that generated a .357/.520/.757 line on the MONTH of May. Thus far, however, Cumberland has spent more time at DH than at catcher, with excellent defender Lucas Herbert on hand in Rome and his bat also taking off.

Cumberland has shown the raw skills, especially in the run game, to be a quality catcher. He’s still working on his framing and lateral movement behind the plate, and he’ll split the catching duties evenly now in Florida with easy access to the Braves’ catching instructors now that all levels of the minors are playing.

Next: 18, 17

18. Kyle Muller, LHP, Danville Braves

More from Tomahawk Take

• Braves News: New Year’s Eve comes with several questions about the 2023 Braves
• Braves News: How the Braves got their name, mailbag, more
• Atlanta Braves Mailbag: New Year’s Edition
• Braves News: Atlanta makes a pair of trades, prospect debuts, more
• Atlanta Braves History: How the Red Stockings became the Braves

When you draft the Gatorade national high school player of the year, you would figure he’s going to be a top-level prospect in your organization, but for the Atlanta Braves, he was #20 overall for me coming into the season.

Muller was a legit two-way prospect in high school as a likely 2nd or 3rd round prospect as a first baseman with the bat and a borderline first round selection off the mound. He was considered to be a tough sign as he wanted to be able to hit and pitch both in college, reportedly.

The Braves were able to get Muller to sign as their third selection in the 2016 draft, their 2nd round pick at #44 overall. Muller has a solid fastball in the low-90s and a very good frame at 6’6″ and 225 pounds to project as a mid-rotation guy or even better, with a number of comments comparing his approach on the mound and frame to that of Jon Lester.

Muller was dominant in the GCL in 2016, throwing 27 2/3 innings with a 0.65 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and a 12/38 BB/K ratio. He was intended to be put on the Kolby Allard plan for 2017, starting in extended spring and coming up at the end of May/beginning of June to Rome to open 2017, but he ended up having some injury stuff to open his 2017 during extended spring, so we haven’t seen much of him yet this summer.

He’s made one start with Danville where he allowed 4 runs over 3 2/3 innings, but he also had a 2/6 BB/K in that time as well, so there were positives and some growth points in that first start of the year.

17. Austin Riley, 3B, Florida Fire Frogs

Before the 2015 draft, Riley was a guy who was considered by many teams as a legit option off the mound, with a fastball that had topped out in the mid-90s. The Braves drafted Riley as a hitter in the first round and put him at third base.

He came out his draft season, and he captured the imagination of fans when he hit .304/.389/.544 with 14 doubles and 12 home runs between the GCL and Danville. His third base defense was rough, to say the least, as he committed 16 errors in just 173 chances.

Riley opened the 2016 season with Rome, and he struggled out of the gate. He made some adjustments with Rome’s hitting coach and was able to better access his power. He finished the season on an absolute tear, and his final numbers were excellent, with a .271/.324/.479 line with 39 doubles and 20 home runs. Once again, the defense was a concern, with 30 errors, but he did show significantly improved instincts at the position.

Throughout the spring, I received reports on Riley’s improved athleticism and his improved ability at third. He came out this spring hitting fairly well, and while he’s had some streaks, which will be always part of his profile with his long swing, he has put up a .253/.314/.416 line this season with 7 doubles and 11 home runs.

What has impressed has been the defense. Every video I’ve seen of Riley defensively for Florida has shown improved instincts, accuracy in his throws, and more smooth motions at the position, and it’s shown in the base stats as well, as he’s committed only 6 errors thus far in the season in over half the chances he had in the 2016 season.

Next: 16, 15

16. Randy Ventura, OF, Rome Braves

Signed in the offseason before the 2015 season, Ventura was yet another one of the Atlanta Braves’ shrewd international signing moves, looking like a brilliant move when he came out in the Dominican Summer League in 2015 and hit .329/.421/.394 with 11 doubles and 2 triples, stealing 55 bases over 58 games.

This led to a number of more casual Braves minor league fans to take a strong note of Ventura just because of the speed, though his true skill set was not truly known by the majority of those who were showing strong interest in his abilities.

Ventura was in a car crash in the Dominican in late 2015, and while he did not suffer any directly career-threatening injury, Ventura seemed to suffer the effects a bit in his GCL time. While he has exceptional bat speed and control through the zone, he hit .284/.358/.351 with 15 stolen bases and just 2 doubles, 4 triples, and a home run over 53 games.

Ventura has a compact frame at 5’9″, but he’s filled out quite a bit already into that frame at just 19 (he turns 20 July 11th). He’s shown plenty of ability to run again this season with Rome, with a .303/.345/.332 line with 6 doubles, a triple, and 26 stolen bases in 67 games.

For me, Ventura reminds me a LOT of a young Kirby Puckett. One of the notable things that came to my attention after getting a few videos on Ventura and getting that image in my mind was when I got a report from a scout that stated that he said he envisioned Ventura playing as a solid defensive RF with an above-average to plus level arm that will eventually develop some very good gap power.

Ventura is still very young, but I think there’s a ton to like in his bat, and while I don’t see him as a future stolen base champion, he has very good instincts on the bases, which should allow him to be a double-digit base stealer after he grows into his frame quite a bit, but his tremendous swing allows for good gap power projection that could have a couple of 15+ home run seasons mixed in.

15. Lucas Sims, RHP, Gwinnett Braves

In 2014, the Atlanta Braves used the 21st pick in the draft to take the best arm in the Georgia class in the 2012 draft class (and the #2 draft prospect in the state behind Byron Buxton) in prep righty Lucas Sims.

In his draft season, Sims showed his excellent stuff, but also how raw he was, with a 3.71 ERA and 1.21 WHIP between the GCL and Danville with a 13/39 BB/K ratio over 34 innings.

Sims established himself as a prospect with a big performance as a teen in Rome in 2013, going 12-4 in 116 2/3 innings, with a 2.62 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a 46/134 BB/K.

The wheels of control first came off that next season with Lynchburg. In 28 starts and 156 1/3 innings, Sims only walked 57 batters, but his stuff was so hittable that he went from a guy who was striking out more than a batter per inning to striking out just 107 in those 156 innings.

In 2015, Sims was one player strongly affected by the bus crash. He missed almost two months after the bus crash, though oddly, as soon as he returned and showed one positive start, the Braves promoted him to AA Mississippi, where Sims was excellent to finish out the season, putting up a 3.21 ERA and striking out 56 over 47 2/3 innings to close out the year. He also went to the Arizona Fall League and was dominant there, posting a 2.12 ERA with a 3/17 BB/K over 17 innings.

Returning to Mississippi to open 2017, Sims showed early on that he was out of place in the Southern League. After just three starts, the Braves promoted him, with Sims having a 1.84 ERA at the time and 26 strikeouts over 14 2/3 innings. His first two starts went well in Gwinnett, with 12 innings, 3 runs allowed, and 16 strikeouts, but then the wheels came off once the calendar turned to May. From May 1 until he was mercifully demoted after his June 15th start, Sims made 9 starts, throwing 38 innings, with a 9.24 ERA, 2.08 WHIP, and a 31/42 BB/K ratio.

Getting back with Mississippi and pitching coach Dennis Lewalyn slowly, but surely, got Sims back on track, though the walk rate was still crazy high, and there was talk throughout the offseason of moving Sims to the bullpen.

Sims has pitched the entire season with Gwinnett this year, and while he’s had similar streaks on the year where he’d go from looking dominant for 4-5 starts to giving up hits to everyone for 3 games, overall his line has stayed solid, with a 3.98 ERA over 15 starts and 86 innings, posting a 1.20 WHIP and a 30/92 BB/K ratio. The startling thing to me is the 16 home runs allowed, which was also something that spiked with Gwinnett previously and has not been an issue for Sims in the past.

In the bullpen, Sims would be an absolutely dominant, likely Craig Kimbrel-level closer with his fastball that can run to triple digits in short bursts and arguably the best right-handed curve in the whole system. He is still just 23 years old, however, and the team would like to develop him as a starter as long as possible for his trade value if nothing else.

Next: 14, 13

12. Alex Jackson, C, Florida Fire Frogs

Considered as a possible #1 overall selection in 2014 out of high school in the San Diego area, Jackson was a catcher with elite power in high school, breaking all sorts of home run records while a prep star. He was so well regarded that after his draft year, Baseball America had him ranked as the #20 overall prospect in the entire game.

That was really the high point for Jackson in the Seattle Mariners organization. The team started him with their low-A team in Clinton in the Midwest League in 2015, but he posted a .453 OPS and was sent down to the short season Northwest League, where he recaptured some of his power, but he was still struggling to make contact, posting a .239/.365/.466 line.

Jackson returned to Clinton in 2016, but injuries and struggles again kept his numbers in check as he hit .243/.332/.408 with 20 doubles and 11 home runs over 92 games, roughly 1/3 of which were spent at DH.

The Braves scouting department had a good feel for Jackson and liked his bat for sure, and this offseason, they traded two quality arms in Robert Whalen and Max Povse for Jackson and Tyler Pike. While it was initially left as a rumor, Jackson arrived early to Braves camp and a picture he tweeted confirmed he was working as a catcher again.

The Braves assigned Jackson to high-A Florida in the Florida State League, where he could be near the Braves’ instructors, yet hit in regular game action rather than extended spring. He came out with a bat on fire before an injury cost him roughly 20 games.

On the season, Jackson is hitting .280/.351/.520 with 12 doubles and 10 home runs. He’s walking just 6% of the time, which would be good to see improve, but as he’s re-learning the catching position to put up quality power stats like that in a pitcher-friendly league is certainly impressive.

On the catching side, Jackson is raw, but there’s certainly upside. Fellow bat-first catcher Brett Cumberland was recently promoted to Florida, and while Cumberland is likely backup quality at best defensively as a catcher and going to need to be special with the bat to play in the bigs as a starting catcher, Jackson has the raw tools at the position that he could possibly be both an impact hitter and receiver.

11. Max Fried, LHP, Mississippi Braves

A guy who I had trouble keeping out of my top 5 in the offseason (ranked #7 in the end), Fried finished 2016 looking like Atlanta’s next big ace. This season so far, he’s looked like a deuce (bad card pun, I know).

The Atlanta Braves acquired Fried as part of the Justin Upton trade while Fried was still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Aware that he would not pitch the entire 2015 season, the Braves eased him back into things in 2016, giving him time off in the middle of the season for what turned out to be a “phantom” injury, meant mainly to keep his innings and arm fatigue in check.

Overall with Rome, the numbers look fine – 3.93 ERA, 103 innings, 1.30 WHIP, 47/112 BB/K, but when you break down the last few months as well as adding in his tremendous playoff starts, you see why the team and fans were so excited about him.

Fried had a rough start in his first game back after his time away, but he finished the regular season with 3 starts that tallied 16 2/3 innings and a 5/26 BB/K ratio. He then was dominant in the postseason, making two starts, going 14 2/3 innings, allowing 2 runs, and posting a 4/24 BB/K ratio, meaning over his final 5 turns on the hill in 2016, he threw 31 1/3 innings and had a 9/40 BB/K ratio.

This season, the Braves jumped him over high-A to AA Mississippi. Fried injured himself on his first start out against Jacksonville, and he’s never looked completely right on the mound all year – showing great efforts at time, but never quite having the finish to his breaking stuff or fastball to get that strikeout movement on his pitches that was seen at the end of 2016.

The talent is just so immense that I have trouble dropping Fried much more than this, but with a 6.54 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and 36/74 BB/K over 74 innings, he’s not exactly showing the way he was hoped to this season, which is why he’s outside of the top ten.

Next: Braves Minor League Database

Come back tomorrow for the top ten! We’ll finish with the top ten and then some additional prospects along with the entire list in a pure list format later on Friday.