Atlanta Braves Midseason Top 50 Prospects: 11-20

Atlanta Braves Midseason Top 50 Prospects

Every season, I have tried to bring a midseason update to the Atlanta Braves top 100 prospect list that I work on every winter. This year will be a little earlier than most, but we’ll discuss the reasoning for that more in the Friday AQA post.

The focus here is on an increasingly difficult task, narrowing a list to 50 Atlanta Braves prospects. The Braves’ system is one of the top 5 in the game without question, and while there are some elite prospects at the top end, what makes the Braves’ system so incredible is the depth within the system – players who are not even on this list are viable guys that could be major league contributors, if even in a bullpen or off the bench.

We’ll look at all players within the system currently, including those who were recently drafted, but only those who have signed and been assigned. The guys who I will be excluding are those who are or have been in the majors and likely to surpass their rookie limits this season if they haven’t already. That meant that guys like Rio Ruiz, Johan Camargo, Luke Jackson, Sean Newcomb, and Jason Hursh did not make this list. While only Newcomb would have factored in the top of the list, it’s still important to note when you do not see the other names, that is why.

That said, any guys who may make it to the majors possibly this season and burn through their rookie eligibility would require projection, so I won’t exclude them as we just do not know.

The schedule will be as such:
Monday – 50-41
Tuesday – 31-40
Wednesday – 21-30
Thursday – 11-20
Friday – AQA (with a BIG announcement!), Top Ten, and a post with the full list and other names to know outside the top 50

I think that’s enough qualifiers for now. Enjoy, and feel free to comment below!!

Next: 19, 20

20. Drew Waters, OF, GCL Braves

When the Atlanta Braves nabbed righty Kyle Wright with the #5 overall selection in the draft, many thought that would end up being the focus of the entire draft due to the likely high bonus number that he’d require. Instead, the Braves went out and got the #1 overall player from the state of Georgia as well.

Waters is from Woodstock, Georgia, and he’s been part of the showcase circuit most of his teen years. He’s a switch-hitter, and he’s physically not far off from his projection at 6’2″ and 190 pounds, with a frame that will likely take on 10-20 more pounds in his peak before adding “old man” weight as he ages (don’t you hate THAT weight?!).

Waters has impressive tools across the board, with scouts willing to go to a plus current grade on his speed, arm, and defense, and his raw power has drawn a future plus grade along with plus bat speed. His biggest variance among scouts is the power aspect.

I got two offensive comps on Waters that I thought showed that divergence in opinion, but I think Braves fans would be supremely happy with either outcome – former Orioles infielder Brian Roberts, and former Yankees outfielder Bernie Williams. If his power ends up more “pound the gaps” power like Roberts (who AVERAGED 46 doubles per season from 2004-2009) or if he develops more into a contact and medium power guy like Bernie was for a decade and a half, that would be premium outcomes in both directions.

19. Brett Cumberland, C, Florida Fire Frogs

I understand that many will feel this is too low on Cumberland, but he’s also a guy who has moved up from #44 to #19 in a half season so far, so that’s a big jump already, and it’s almost exclusively on his bat at this point.

Cumberland came to the Atlanta Braves as a switch hitting catcher that’s under 6′ tall and filled out (listed 205 pounds, could be a hair larger than that), so he was expected to hit immediately and need to work on the catching. Instead, hitting was even a struggle in his draft year last year, hitting .216/.317/.340. Even through April, he was struggling with the bat, with a .10/.371/321 line for Rome.

He turned it on in May with an incredible power display along with patience at the plate that generated a .357/.520/.757 line on the MONTH of May. Thus far, however, Cumberland has spent more time at DH than at catcher, with excellent defender Lucas Herbert on hand in Rome and his bat also taking off.

Cumberland has shown the raw skills, especially in the run game, to be a quality catcher. He’s still working on his framing and lateral movement behind the plate, and he’ll split the catching duties evenly now in Florida with easy access to the Braves’ catching instructors now that all levels of the minors are playing.

Next: 18, 17

16. Randy Ventura, OF, Rome Braves

Signed in the offseason before the 2015 season, Ventura was yet another one of the Atlanta Braves’ shrewd international signing moves, looking like a brilliant move when he came out in the Dominican Summer League in 2015 and hit .329/.421/.394 with 11 doubles and 2 triples, stealing 55 bases over 58 games.

This led to a number of more casual Braves minor league fans to take a strong note of Ventura just because of the speed, though his true skill set was not truly known by the majority of those who were showing strong interest in his abilities.

Ventura was in a car crash in the Dominican in late 2015, and while he did not suffer any directly career-threatening injury, Ventura seemed to suffer the effects a bit in his GCL time. While he has exceptional bat speed and control through the zone, he hit .284/.358/.351 with 15 stolen bases and just 2 doubles, 4 triples, and a home run over 53 games.

Ventura has a compact frame at 5’9″, but he’s filled out quite a bit already into that frame at just 19 (he turns 20 July 11th). He’s shown plenty of ability to run again this season with Rome, with a .303/.345/.332 line with 6 doubles, a triple, and 26 stolen bases in 67 games.

For me, Ventura reminds me a LOT of a young Kirby Puckett. One of the notable things that came to my attention after getting a few videos on Ventura and getting that image in my mind was when I got a report from a scout that stated that he said he envisioned Ventura playing as a solid defensive RF with an above-average to plus level arm that will eventually develop some very good gap power.

Ventura is still very young, but I think there’s a ton to like in his bat, and while I don’t see him as a future stolen base champion, he has very good instincts on the bases, which should allow him to be a double-digit base stealer after he grows into his frame quite a bit, but his tremendous swing allows for good gap power projection that could have a couple of 15+ home run seasons mixed in.

15. Lucas Sims, RHP, Gwinnett Braves

In 2014, the Atlanta Braves used the 21st pick in the draft to take the best arm in the Georgia class in the 2012 draft class (and the #2 draft prospect in the state behind Byron Buxton) in prep righty Lucas Sims.

In his draft season, Sims showed his excellent stuff, but also how raw he was, with a 3.71 ERA and 1.21 WHIP between the GCL and Danville with a 13/39 BB/K ratio over 34 innings.

Sims established himself as a prospect with a big performance as a teen in Rome in 2013, going 12-4 in 116 2/3 innings, with a 2.62 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a 46/134 BB/K.

The wheels of control first came off that next season with Lynchburg. In 28 starts and 156 1/3 innings, Sims only walked 57 batters, but his stuff was so hittable that he went from a guy who was striking out more than a batter per inning to striking out just 107 in those 156 innings.

In 2015, Sims was one player strongly affected by the bus crash. He missed almost two months after the bus crash, though oddly, as soon as he returned and showed one positive start, the Braves promoted him to AA Mississippi, where Sims was excellent to finish out the season, putting up a 3.21 ERA and striking out 56 over 47 2/3 innings to close out the year. He also went to the Arizona Fall League and was dominant there, posting a 2.12 ERA with a 3/17 BB/K over 17 innings.

Returning to Mississippi to open 2017, Sims showed early on that he was out of place in the Southern League. After just three starts, the Braves promoted him, with Sims having a 1.84 ERA at the time and 26 strikeouts over 14 2/3 innings. His first two starts went well in Gwinnett, with 12 innings, 3 runs allowed, and 16 strikeouts, but then the wheels came off once the calendar turned to May. From May 1 until he was mercifully demoted after his June 15th start, Sims made 9 starts, throwing 38 innings, with a 9.24 ERA, 2.08 WHIP, and a 31/42 BB/K ratio.

Getting back with Mississippi and pitching coach Dennis Lewalyn slowly, but surely, got Sims back on track, though the walk rate was still crazy high, and there was talk throughout the offseason of moving Sims to the bullpen.

Sims has pitched the entire season with Gwinnett this year, and while he’s had similar streaks on the year where he’d go from looking dominant for 4-5 starts to giving up hits to everyone for 3 games, overall his line has stayed solid, with a 3.98 ERA over 15 starts and 86 innings, posting a 1.20 WHIP and a 30/92 BB/K ratio. The startling thing to me is the 16 home runs allowed, which was also something that spiked with Gwinnett previously and has not been an issue for Sims in the past.

In the bullpen, Sims would be an absolutely dominant, likely Craig Kimbrel-level closer with his fastball that can run to triple digits in short bursts and arguably the best right-handed curve in the whole system. He is still just 23 years old, however, and the team would like to develop him as a starter as long as possible for his trade value if nothing else.

Next: 14, 13

14. Joey Wentz, LHP, Rome Braves

One of the things that plagues the modern draft process is the abundance of information and the lack of knowledge in how to truly process it. Wentz was a great example last season. Before the summer of 2015, he was considered more of a first base prospect than a pitching prospect, even participating in multiple 2015 showcases as both a hitter and pitcher. However, his performance off the mound by the end of the summer had established his value being higher as a pitcher, and teams began to plan where in the first round they’d have to snare Wentz.

He then came out and showed velocity lower than he showed the previous summer, leaving many internet “scouts” to scramble, worried that there was something wrong with the arm, or perhaps that he was simply a flash in the pan the previous summer.

Instead, like many players who do not play year-round and who play in states where the season starts later, Wentz simply took time to get up to speed. Once in pro ball, his velocity also dipped initially as he got used to pitching every 5 days rather than once per week, but it bounced back up by the end of the season.

He’s come out for Rome this year in his first full season and silenced any critics, making his selection at 40th overall seem quite a steal. In 14 starts thus far, Wentz has thrown 65 1/3 innings, allowing a 3.31 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and posting a 22/71 BB/K ratio.

13. Dustin Peterson, OF, Gwinnett Braves

Acquired originally by the Atlanta Braves from the San Diego Padres in the Justin Upton deal, Peterson was moved immediately from his third base home to left field. He opened the first season of his Braves tenure in Carolina, and when the bus crash happened, he was well on his way to establishing himself as a breakout prospect, hitting .314/.392/.448 with 3 doubles, a triple, and 3 home runs over 30 games.

He missed a couple of weeks after the crash, but when he returned, he never seemed quite right physically, and his final season numbers allowed fans to brush him aside, as he totaled a .251/.317/.348 line with 15 doubles and 8 home runs.

Last season, Braves fans stood up and took notice, when Peterson, now in the hitter desert that is AA Mississippi, powered his way through to a .282/.343/.431 line with 38 doubles and 12 home runs, showing quality defense in left field. He followed that with an impressive performance in the Arizona Fall League, where he hit .324/.352/.471, and many Braves fans thought that Peterson would be on the fast track to Atlanta in the spring.

He seemingly was as well, until he suffered a broken hamate bone in his hand, one of the most difficult injuries for a hitter to return from in good speed. Typically a hitter is sapped of power for up to a full year after a hamate injury.

Peterson has hit .252/.325/.324 since his return with 8 doubles and a triple, with not surprising struggles applying power to the ball. He’ll be a guy to keep an eye on in 2018, but his 2017 major league impact is likely a lost thought.

Next: 12, 11

12. Alex Jackson, C, Florida Fire Frogs

Considered as a possible #1 overall selection in 2014 out of high school in the San Diego area, Jackson was a catcher with elite power in high school, breaking all sorts of home run records while a prep star. He was so well regarded that after his draft year, Baseball America had him ranked as the #20 overall prospect in the entire game.

That was really the high point for Jackson in the Seattle Mariners organization. The team started him with their low-A team in Clinton in the Midwest League in 2015, but he posted a .453 OPS and was sent down to the short season Northwest League, where he recaptured some of his power, but he was still struggling to make contact, posting a .239/.365/.466 line.

Jackson returned to Clinton in 2016, but injuries and struggles again kept his numbers in check as he hit .243/.332/.408 with 20 doubles and 11 home runs over 92 games, roughly 1/3 of which were spent at DH.

The Braves scouting department had a good feel for Jackson and liked his bat for sure, and this offseason, they traded two quality arms in Robert Whalen and Max Povse for Jackson and Tyler Pike. While it was initially left as a rumor, Jackson arrived early to Braves camp and a picture he tweeted confirmed he was working as a catcher again.

The Braves assigned Jackson to high-A Florida in the Florida State League, where he could be near the Braves’ instructors, yet hit in regular game action rather than extended spring. He came out with a bat on fire before an injury cost him roughly 20 games.

On the season, Jackson is hitting .280/.351/.520 with 12 doubles and 10 home runs. He’s walking just 6% of the time, which would be good to see improve, but as he’s re-learning the catching position to put up quality power stats like that in a pitcher-friendly league is certainly impressive.

On the catching side, Jackson is raw, but there’s certainly upside. Fellow bat-first catcher Brett Cumberland was recently promoted to Florida, and while Cumberland is likely backup quality at best defensively as a catcher and going to need to be special with the bat to play in the bigs as a starting catcher, Jackson has the raw tools at the position that he could possibly be both an impact hitter and receiver.

11. Max Fried, LHP, Mississippi Braves

A guy who I had trouble keeping out of my top 5 in the offseason (ranked #7 in the end), Fried finished 2016 looking like Atlanta’s next big ace. This season so far, he’s looked like a deuce (bad card pun, I know).

The Atlanta Braves acquired Fried as part of the Justin Upton trade while Fried was still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Aware that he would not pitch the entire 2015 season, the Braves eased him back into things in 2016, giving him time off in the middle of the season for what turned out to be a “phantom” injury, meant mainly to keep his innings and arm fatigue in check.

Overall with Rome, the numbers look fine – 3.93 ERA, 103 innings, 1.30 WHIP, 47/112 BB/K, but when you break down the last few months as well as adding in his tremendous playoff starts, you see why the team and fans were so excited about him.

Fried had a rough start in his first game back after his time away, but he finished the regular season with 3 starts that tallied 16 2/3 innings and a 5/26 BB/K ratio. He then was dominant in the postseason, making two starts, going 14 2/3 innings, allowing 2 runs, and posting a 4/24 BB/K ratio, meaning over his final 5 turns on the hill in 2016, he threw 31 1/3 innings and had a 9/40 BB/K ratio.

This season, the Braves jumped him over high-A to AA Mississippi. Fried injured himself on his first start out against Jacksonville, and he’s never looked completely right on the mound all year – showing great efforts at time, but never quite having the finish to his breaking stuff or fastball to get that strikeout movement on his pitches that was seen at the end of 2016.

The talent is just so immense that I have trouble dropping Fried much more than this, but with a 6.54 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and 36/74 BB/K over 74 innings, he’s not exactly showing the way he was hoped to this season, which is why he’s outside of the top ten.

Next: Braves Minor League Database

Come back tomorrow for the top ten! We’ll finish with the top ten and then some additional prospects along with the entire list in a pure list format later on Friday.