Atlanta Braves pitching rumors part deux
By Fred Owens
The calculus of buying now
A look at the off-season seems to indicate that the asking price won’t be much different then than now. The White Sox will feel no urgency to deal Quintana, he’s under control through 2020 and inexpensive. The Rays are in the same boat with Archer under control through 2021 for the cost of a good utility man. The price then and now will be the same.
The Braves are both buyers and sellers this year. That adds impetus to the idea of buying now. Bringing either of these two pitchers or a similar arm on board now means they don’t have to push a young pitcher up before he’s ready should they trade Jaime Garcia. Garcia is that inexpensive, back of the rotation rental so many team want. Trading Garcia in a package could also bring back players needed to fill holes in the roster.
That all works for me, and I think it does for you as well. So, who and how much?
Archer
Chris Archer is no doubt the most expensive option in terms of prospects. The Rays will see the Chris Sale trade as a model for any deal involving Archer. Sale brought the White Sox baseball’s number one prospect Yoan Moncada, number seventeen prospect Michael Kopech, 20-year-old outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe and 23-year-old reliever Victor Diaz.
I think we can assume the Braves will not want to deal Sean Newcomb, Ozzie Albies or Kevin Maitan; the Rays likely wouldn’t want to wait for Maitan anyway. A comparable package might include Kolby Allard, Ian Anderson, Ricardo Sanchez and Braxton Davidson. If Fried was pitching as well as last year they’d probably take him and might even take Sims instead of Anderson as he’s closer to major league ready.
Quintana
Sale was never really an option for the Atlanta Braves last winter. The roster wasn’t ready for him knowing that he’d be a luxury this season and a free agent following the 2019 season. As Alan pointed out three months back, they were instead building a relationship and probing the Sox about their intentions for Quintana with a look to the future and have never really left that discussion.
Last winter I made a case that Quintana would be as good a get for the Braves as Sale. I based that on his performance for 2014-2016 seasons-95 starts, 614 2/3 IP. 3.29 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 146 BB and 536 K.- and the extra year of control he provided.
At that time Coppy disagreed with me and told David O’Brien so.
"“Do we want a No. 1 starter, is Chris Sale a No. 1 starter? Yes. Do we want Jose Quintana? I don’t think Jose Quintana is Chris Sale. Is he an extra year of control. . .Yes. Who’s to say one of our young kids can’t turn into Jose Quintana? Or Chris Sale.”"
In the same article John Hart added his insight;. . . (as Quintana does over Sale), their ask is probably going to be pretty steep. . . “Is it worth it for us to dig into it? How deep? Where do you go? Is it right guy for us to do it with, versus exploring some other things?. . . Quintana’s a desirable guy, for sure. But I’m not sure we’re necessarily in that spot. We like Quintana. . . “
Okay then I’ll go to my room and ponder that John and John. . .
The year started badly for Quintana. Although some have said he’s been better lately the numbers don’t say that at all. In fact they look a bit worse.
He’s made 15 starts this year posting a 4.50ERA, 4.01 FIP and 4.22 SIERRA striking out 88, and walking 32 in 88 1/3 IP. In his last seven starts he threw 39 innings at a 5.08 ERA and struck out 42. He’s walked just nine in that stretch but gave up six homers and nine doubles as opponents slugged .444 against him.
Perhaps Hart and Coppy sense a chance to steal him and hope that getting him out of Chicago and pairing him with his good friend and fellow Colombian Julio Teheran will revitalize both of them.
According the Peter Gammons (twitter link) the Pale Hose asked Houston for starter Joe Musgrove, Francis Martes (now Houston’s #1) and Kyle Tucker (now Houston’s #3) in exchange for Quintana. They can’t hope for that now.
Anything more than Sims or Fried, Blair, Hursh and Cumberland if probably an overpay.