Atlanta Braves Midseason Top 50 Prospects: 31-40

Atlanta Braves Midseason Top 50 Prospects

Every season, I have tried to bring a midseason update to the Atlanta Braves top 100 prospect list that I work on every winter. This year will be a little earlier than most, but we’ll discuss the reasoning for that more in the Friday AQA post.

The focus here is on an increasingly difficult task, narrowing a list to 50 Atlanta Braves prospects. The Braves’ system is one of the top 5 in the game without question, and while there are some elite prospects at the top end, what makes the Braves’ system so incredible is the depth within the system – players who are not even on this list are viable guys that could be major league contributors, if even in a bullpen or off the bench.

We’ll look at all players within the system currently, including those who were recently drafted, but only those who have signed and been assigned. The guys who I will be excluding are those who are or have been in the majors and likely to surpass their rookie limits this season if they haven’t already. That meant that guys like Rio Ruiz, Johan Camargo, Luke Jackson, Sean Newcomb, and Jason Hursh did not make this list. While only Newcomb would have factored in the top of the list, it’s still important to note when you do not see the other names, that is why.

That said, any guys who may make it to the majors possibly this season and burn through their rookie eligibility would require projection, so I won’t exclude them as we just do not know.

The schedule will be as such:
Monday – 50-41
Tuesday – 31-40
Wednesday – 21-30
Thursday – 11-20
Friday – AQA (with a BIG announcement!), Top Ten, and a post with the full list and other names to know outside the top 50

I think that’s enough qualifiers for now. Enjoy, and feel free to comment below!!

Next: 39, 40

40. Tyler Neslony, 1B/OF, Florida Fire Frogs

Neslony was a college sign pick from Texas Tech in the 9th round of the 2016 draft who was known for his bat and his competitiveness with the Red Raiders.

Neslony lasted just 5 games at Danville before he was moved up to the Rome team last year, where he was able to work alongside elite defenders like Ray-Patrick Didder, Ronald Acuna, and Jared James to cover his rough defensive skills in the outfield. Overall, he hit .280/.341/.384 last season between Danville and Rome.

Neslony opened the year at high-A Florida, where he was used to split between first base and the corner outfield spots. Initially tagged for a bench role, Neslony’s bat started incredibly hot, and he pushed his way into the lineup.

Neslony has shown, however, that his glove really doesn’t play anywhere. In 21 games at first base, he’s made 9 errors. In the corner outfield, he has very rough range. However, he’s currently hitting .315/.384/.455, with 16 doubles and 3 home runs.

Neslony may not provide a 30 home run bat or an elite glove, but he’s a guy who can certainly hit, and there’s going to be a role for that as he moves up, and if he can put in the work to improve his corner outfield defense, he’ll find a spot with a bat that can hit for a high average.

39. Derian Cruz, SS, Danville Braves

Coming into the 2015 international free agent period, the Atlanta Braves set out to acquire additional IFA bonus money in order to afford signing Cruz and Cristian Pache together without going over, in order to avoid the penalty for the big 2016 IFA class.

Cruz came out last season, and his walk rate was completely absent, but his impressive wrist speed allowed for good enough bat speed to hit well in the GCL before really falling flat once he hit Danville. Crus flashed plus speed and raw defensive skills that likely profiled off of shortstop, but he was still 17 the entire season, so his youth certainly impacted some of his struggles.

The Braves decided to be aggressive with Cruz in 2017 and assigned him to low-A Rome, hoping his Danville stop was more an effect of his youth and that he could show positive steps with the aggressive assignment. Instead, Cruz stumbled out of the gate and just got worse from there, eventually demoted back to extended spring hitting .167/.207/.237 with a 3/35 BB/K ratio over 29 games.

Why is Cruz still a top 40 prospect with this sort of resume? Simply put, he’s 18 until October, and he’s still figuring out where his glove plays before he can really address the bat. I have dropped him significantly from 26 in the preseason to 39, and it’s entirely feasible that if he doesn’t pick it up with Danville this season, he could find his way out of the top 50 and having to earn his way back up again.

Next: 38, 37

38. Lucas Herbert, C, Rome Braves

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When the Atlanta Braves nabbed lefty

in the first round of the 2015 draft, many thought he would have been in strong consideration for the #1 overall pick if his back had held up. Many credited his catcher with working with him on days that it was obvious that his back acted up, knowing Allard well enough to know how to handle his pitcher, and showing advanced feel for handling a pitching staff for a high school catcher. The Braves made that catcher their 2nd round pick in 2015 when they selected Herbert.

Herbert really put Braves prospect fans on the look out when he came out in just 5 plate appearances and hit .500/.600/1.250 with a loud home run before shredding his knee in his draft year, leading fans to wonder if the team finally had a guy who was reputed to have an elite defensive profile along with the bat to be a star, hearkening back to the days of Javy Lopez and Brian McCann behind the plate.

Instead, Herbert went out and hit .185/.234/.278 over 96 games last season with an exceptionally bad 18/96 BB/K ratio for Rome, losing out playing time more and more as the season played on.

Herbert came out of the gate rough this season in repeating Rome, but he’s recovered very well, and since a notable change in his ease in the box in a series at home against Lexington in mid-May, Herbert has hit .315/.382/.413 over 23 games with 6 doubles and a home run.

Herbert struggled on the defensive end last season as his offensive game was dipping, but this year, he’s definitely picked up the defense since day one, and if his bat is going to come around as well, he could rocket up this list by the end of the season.

37. Matt Withrow, RHP, Mississippi Braves

The Atlanta Braves have a fairly good pipeline with Texas Tech, and Withrow was yet another Red Raider turned Brave when he was selected in the 6th round in 2015. With a brother, Chris Withrow, already in the major leagues, Matt was used to what to expect and assumed to be ready for the toils of pro ball after an injury-riddled collegiate career.

Withrow was the steady force of the Carolina rotation in his first full season in 2016, making 25 appearances (24 starts), throwing 120 2/3 innings, and posting a 3.80 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and a 68/131 BB/K ratio. The strikeout rate drew the attention of quite a few prospect hounds over the offseason, but what caught my eye was a story from within the season.

The Mudcats had played a double header the day before, using 7 of their relievers for at least an inning, meaning there was little in the way of help out there for Withrow. He went out, and he immediately knew he didn’t have his best stuff or even his okay stuff. He could have told his coach, left the game, and he would have saved his ERA and numbers some damage. Instead, he knew that the team needed him to get through at least three innings, and he scraped through exactly that, giving up 11 runs in the process, ballooning his season ERA, but he did what was needed for the team.

That sort of attitude had Withrow heavy on my radar coming into 2017, and then as the least-heralded member of the loaded AA Mississippi rotation, he simply went out and had the best month of April, arguably of any pitcher in the entire Atlanta Braves minor league system.

Then May happened, and Withrow attempted to pitch through injury before succumbing to the DL finally. After a 2.08 April ERA, his current season total is a 4.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and a 22/44 BB/K ratio over 48 1/3 innings. He’s not pitched at all in June. The exceptional strides he made early in the season were real, from my viewing, and here’s hoping he can return healthy and show what he has as a starter.

Next: 36, 35

36. Alay Lago, 2B, Florida Fire Frogs

Lago was the Braves’ most recent investment into Cuba along with Juan Carlos Negret. After the issues the team had with Hector Olivera, one would have worried the Braves would have avoided the Cuban market, but instead they plunged in for their first teenage signing and a signing out of the Mexican League, a market that the Braves have worked before very well.

Lago was not a guy who was known for having incredible success in the Cuban Leagues. In fact, he never accumulated over 100 plate appearances in a season with the Cuban Leagues, and even in his season in the Mexican League, he hit for a .631 OPS.

Braves scouts at Lago’s showcase in Mexico were incredibly impressed with his hands up the middle and his projectable power in his quick, compact stroke. One team scout told me this spring to watch Lago as he was a guy that may take a year in pro ball to get his feet under him, but he could be in Atlanta the next season, and this is a guy who told me in the next breath that he debated the path to Atlanta for a number of other players considered top prospects at the time, so that comment held some fairly high weight.

Lago’s done nothing but prove that scout correct, hitting .296/.332/.398, which are not elite numbers, but they’re certainly passable, and what’s most impressive is that all reports come back about his great hands and feet around the second base bag. He is 25 already, but Lago could be a guy to make a fairly significant impact compared to his cost.

35. Jonathan Morales, C, Mississippi Braves

Miami-Dade has a very good system of junior college schools that lead to multiple campuses getting players selected in the MLB draft, so when the Atlanta Braves snagged Jonathan Morales in the 25th round of the 2015 draft, the team knew he’d come from a good program.

Morales came out in his draft season and really captured the imagination of many with his big bat, slashing .304/.377/.511 with 7 doubles and 7 home runs in just 46 games. However, there were some significant questions about his defense behind the plate.

Last season, he spent the entire season with low-A Rome in the South Atlantic League. He worked incredibly hard throughout the off-season to bolster his defense, to the point where some pitchers actually preferred him as the primary catcher due to his elite skills controlling the run game and his ability to move laterally improved heavily.

His bat was quite streaky, to say the least, on the season. Morales finished with a line of .269/.313/.356, but had back to back months where he posted a .455 OPS (June) and a .741 OPS (July).

The improvements on defense have continued into 2017, but so has the streaky hitting. Morales hit .295/.345/.372 in April, but posted a .415 OPS in May. He’s now bounced back with a .297/.350/.378 line in June.

The defense has made him absolutely viable as a future catcher, but his bat still has some work to do. He’s been promoted to AA Mississippi, however, which tells you just how good the glove has gotten to really push him forward.

Next: 34, 33

34. Braxton Davidson, OF, Florida Fire Frogs

Drafted in the first round out of high school in North Carolina in 2014, Davidson has long been held up as a prime example of the issues with Frank Wren drafting, though it is to be noted that to see a high schooler with Braxton’s power and patience now would easily be a guy that draftniks would be pushing for with the 32nd overall selection, so his draft placement wasn’t off, just that he was the first pick for the Braves that season, so he was held in higher esteem.

Davidson has legit light tower power in batting practice, and he’s flashed it at times in games from the left side. He also worked from a definite 1B-only guy out of high school to a more than capable outfielder, if even flashes of above-average defensive ability, especially in right field, where his arm can play up.

Davidson has always been able to take a walk, with a minor league career 16% rate, but he’s also struck out at an incredible rate, at 31.5%. That huge swing has led to major holes in his contact rate as well, leading to struggles to produce a decent batting average, which has shown up in his .227 career minor league average.

While it seems there are a ton of negatives here, Davidson just turned 21 on June 18th, and he has shown that legit power and the ability to take a walk in his time in the minors already, so it’s not out of question that he could still turn into a guy that is at least a Rob Deer type for someone, though I’m not sure that it will be for the Braves.

33. Isranel Wilson, OF, Danville Braves

One of the most dynamically talented players in the entire Atlanta Braves minor league system, Wilson has struggled to establish that talent in his 3 years in the Atlanta Braves minor league system.

Wilson has struggled to make contact in his first two seasons, hitting under .210 for the first two seasons between GCL and Danville. He also struggled with falling in line, getting himself suspended for team reasons (the Braves typically are tight lipped about the exact reasoning for such suspensions).

This year, Wilson has only played 4 games, but they’ve been impressive, to say the least. He’s hit .333/.444/.800 over those games with 2 triples and a home run over 18 plate appearance and even has stolen a base. Regardless of his past issues, Wilson is still just 19, so he has plenty of upside left.

Next: 32, 31