Atlanta Braves Use of Draft Dollars Makes a Lot of Sense

Jun 22, 2015; Omaha, NE, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores pitcher Kyle Wright (44) throws during the game against the Virginia Cavaliers in game one of the College World Series Finals at TD Ameritrade Park. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 22, 2015; Omaha, NE, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores pitcher Kyle Wright (44) throws during the game against the Virginia Cavaliers in game one of the College World Series Finals at TD Ameritrade Park. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports /
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Picks and Bonus Projections

Before the draft teams talk in general terms with prospects they are tracking to get a feel for signability. This includes a ballpark bonus figure which is of course not a firm offer but agents know the rules too so they know what they can ask for.

Today John Heyman reported that the Braves were near a deal with Kyle Wright for “. . . close to a deal for $7 million. . .” Yesterday I saw an estimate of $7.5M but we’ll assume the esteemed Mr. Heyman is correct. That would be $2,470,300 over slot, so after adding in the allowed overage there’s $3,365,379 remaining instead of the $4.1M originally slotted.

The Braves second round pick was a potential first round pick and can be expected to get something close to full slot. That reduces the remaining theoretical pool as well. I know this can get hard to conceive so here’s a table.

Slots Pool Remaining Difference Notes
$10,365,378.8 From Slot
$7,000,000 $3,365,379 $808,521 Over slot
$1,690,779 $1,674,600 $824,700 At Slot
$209,325 $1,465,275 $325,025 Theoretical
$209,325 $1,255,950 $46,950 Theoretical
$209,325 $1,046,625 -$107,825 Theoretical
$209,325 $837,300 -$172,200 Theoretical
$209,325 $627,975 -$176,275 Theoretical
$209,325 $418,650 -$136,550 Theoretical
$209,325 $209,325 -$73,225 Theoretical
$209,325 $0 Theoretical

It’s pretty obvious that the remaining eight selections will have to sign – and I emphasize have to sign–  for an average of $209.325. That means the Braves could not select more highly rated players and give them enough money to get their signature on a contract without incurring extreme penalties.

Lesson for the fans

The Braves knew going in they would be faced with the situation no matter which pick fell to them.  After Lewis dropped to the Twins the Braves choices were really down to McKay and Wright.  It made no difference which one they selected, something like this had to take place.

Planning for this started last year when scouts began scouring the ranks for players with a high upside who would likely sign just to get a shot with a team that wanted them.  As I wrote on the day, they chose pitchers with power arms who had a history of success.

That their success was against a level of competition than those ranked higher was secondary to talent. The list included a lot of so-called senior signs for whom this is was their last chance for a big payday. That doesn’t make them bad players.

This year we got what we wanted, two of the best players in the country. Budgetary constraints created by the new draft rules dictated the rest of the selections.

That’s A Wrap

In past drafts I’ve seen a lot of moaning – and done a fair bit myself – about the Braves picks. We wanted higher ranked players at the top of the draft. Instead saw an influx of really good players across the first ten rounds.

Next: Meet John Curtis

Players like Jordan Rodgers and Riley Delgado, talented, proven competitors with a strong work ethic driving them forward.  Almost every pitcher drafted shared a common attribute, the ability to strike people out.  Many pitched in big games for their schools and succeeded and all were recommended by Braves scouts,.

Since the arrival of our new front office team and the rebuilding of our scouting system the Braves have landed a lot of overlooked talent. I look for similar success with this year’s group of future Braves.