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The Atlanta Braves, BABIP, and the horse it rode in on

By Alan Carpenter

Aug 31, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers manager Brad Ausmus (7) in the dugout prior to the game against the Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 31, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers manager Brad Ausmus (7) in the dugout prior to the game against the Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jul 3, 2016; Ft. Bragg, NC, USA; The tool race takes place during the game between the Atlanta Braves and the Miami Marlins at Fort Bragg. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 3, 2016; Ft. Bragg, NC, USA; The tool race takes place during the game between the Atlanta Braves and the Miami Marlins at Fort Bragg. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports /

BABIP is a tool; Don’t Use it to Make Yourself Sound Like One

Generally speaking, when I see BABIP brought up in conversation, it is whenever that number is out of the “norm”… whether being usually high or low.

BABIP is like using a thermometer to take your temperature.  If the nurse records that you have a 103°F fever, that’s merely the start of things.

Your doctor doesn’t take that information by itself and declare “you’re sick, here’s what’s wrong with you”.  No – from there he or she starts listening and poking and probing and questioning and drawing blood and finally… after a bunch of diagnostics... a specific ailment is diagnosed.  Only they do you know why you have a fever.

That is BABIP.  In a vacuum, it means nothing.  In context, you might be able to see the bigger picture.

That term “regressing to the mean”?  Also misused – especially in this context.

Even if K-Rod pitched “normally” over the next month, that still doesn’t undo the previous month’s data.  He’d have to far exceed expectations to do so.

Besides… what if that bad April is his new normal?  Brad Ausmus seemed to think so.  He apparently believes that the BABIP (and other things he witnessed about his pitcher) meant a terminal illness.

Closer to Home

Examples… from the Braves:

Let’s run some tests.

FLOWERS – For a couple of weeks, Flowers was over .500 with his BABIP.  Of course, everybody figures that this will ‘normalize’ or ‘regress to the mean’.  But right now he is barreling up balls very well with a 31% line drive rate that leads the team (by almost 6% over Matt Kemp).  This explains his number.

MARKAKIS – Lots of outs via strikeout (23.6%) – unusual for him – but this is not supporting his average.   Meanwhile he is hitting 85.5% of balls with “medium” or “hard” force… similar to Flowers’ numbers.

FREEMAN – Similar BABIP and average.  Generally hammers baseballs, but he also has 11 home runs, which is relevant… more on that below.

So are these anomalies “sustainable”? 

  • Freeman – probably yes (he’s been on a tear for a solid year now).
  • Flowers?  Who knows?  Looking at his 2016, BABIP was .366, batting average .270.  He’s performing like he did in 2016… only a bit better.
  • Markakis?  Perhaps not because of his history shows a closer gap.

About Tony Gwynn

On the occasion of the anniversary of Tony Gwynn‘s birth (he would have been 57 on Tuesday), I’ll throw out another BABIP oddity for you:

  • Gwynn in 1994 – BABIP .389, average of .394

Of all people… who do you think should have the most consistently high BABIP?

So was Gwynn seriously unlucky that he should have hit .400 or something?  No – he actually had eight seasons of hitting equal-or-better than his BABIP… as if anybody knew what that was back then.

Again, you have to look deeper – you have to find the full context of this stat in light of other things going on.

In Gwynn’s case, this happened because he virtually never struck out.  He made more outs that counted against his BABIP than those counting against his batting average… such as sacrifice flies… plus, there’s this little bombshell…

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