Atlanta Braves Fans Ponder Bartolo Colon’s Struggles

Big Sexy vs. Big Sexy

The first thing to do is see if Colon is actually regressing. The fastest way is to compare last season to this one.

Number Crunching

Statistics show minimal difference in speed and movement of his pitches since last season. The velocity change is likely due to the new way velocity is measured this year. Release points are also marginally changed from last season but I suspect that too is the result of more accurate measurement techniques.

Spin rate for his fastball,  two seamer and change up are down slightly while his slider is up slightly.  Those things may explain the small changes in movement and will affect location.

Through the his first six appearances (fours starts and two games in relief)  in 2016 Colon threw 31 2/3 innings while posting a 2.56 ERA. Opposing hitters put up a .277/.290/.412/.702 line that included three home runs and a .333 BAbip. Colon threw 484 pitches – 70% strikes – striking out 28 while walking only three.

In six starts this season he’s thrown 33 innings with a 6.27 ERA. Opposing hitters have a .299/.345/.512/.827 line including five home runs with a .327 BAbip. Colon’s thrown 501 pitches – 68% – for strikes, striking out 23 and walking nine.

While Colon’s ERA ballooned, strikeouts went down and walks increased, he’s actually threw 10 fewer strikes. Opposing hitter’s slash line jumped significantly and more runs were scored even though overall BAbip went down slightly.

The increased slugging percentage screams more extra base hits and a look at over line drive percentage explains that; it jumped from  25% to 33%. Why? Snitker is correct. Colon is getting too much of the plate; he’s wild in the zone and the result is pretty dramatic.

Using data from Texas Leaguers and Brooks Baseball to compare the two seasons to date makes it easy to see the differences.

A review of pitch locations for his fastball in 2017 and the same period last year clearly shows more pitches up and towards the middle of the plate. You can see the difference in this overlay. Results for the slider and sinker location are more of the same; in the zone and up.

That’s A Wrap

The verdict is in. Snitker and Colon are correct; he’s wild in the zone allowing hitters to barrel more balls, generate more line drives resulting more runs allowed.

Colon’s been doing this long enough to know that and undoubtedly works on it every day. He’ll either fix it or he won’t. How the Braves deal with things if he doesn’t is the question.

Next: Wanna listen to Josh Rant about the Braves and things?

Coppy brought Colon, Dickey and Garcia in to allow the young pitchers time to develop. I doubt he’ll back off of that position and I wouldn’t want him to.  There are plenty of examples of talented young pitchers whose careers never materialized because they were brought up too soon.

After investing time, money and talent to acquire a stable of good prospects it would be foolhardy to waste that talent. No replacements are available right now that would produce better results.

Even if one was available the  Braves made it clear they aren’t going to spend more money in a losing cause.  The Braves will allow Colon and Dickey time to work things out and hope Julio Teheran, Mike Foltynewicz and Jaime Garcia can step up and stabilize the rotation until they do.