House That Hank Built
Fansided

Taking Fans Temperature of the Atlanta Braves

By Alan Carpenter

Mar 31, 2017; Atlanta, GA, USA; General view of SunTrust Park during a game between the New York Yankees and Atlanta Braves in the second inning. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 31, 2017; Atlanta, GA, USA; General view of SunTrust Park during a game between the New York Yankees and Atlanta Braves in the second inning. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports /
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Apr 9, 2017; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; A hard slide by Pittsburgh Pirates pinch hitter David Freese (bottom) disrupts a double play attempt by Atlanta Braves second baseman Brandon Phillips (top) during the ninth inning at PNC Park. The Pirates won 6-5. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 9, 2017; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; A hard slide by Pittsburgh Pirates pinch hitter David Freese (bottom) disrupts a double play attempt by Atlanta Braves second baseman Brandon Phillips (top) during the ninth inning at PNC Park. The Pirates won 6-5. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

How Will the Hitting Fit?

Combined homers this season… Freddie Freeman and Matt Kemp

  • 55 or more (79.1%)
  • 54 or less (20.9%)

This one scared me a bit… by wanting to set the over/under point even higher.

Last year, this pair combined for 69 dingers… but I couldn’t bring myself to go to even 60.  So this mark should be attainable.

Through 6 games – even at 5 losses – Kemp and Freeman have 3 homers… on pace for 81.

Wouldn’t that be nice?

On-base percentages of Inciarte PLUS Swanson

  • 70% or above (59.8%)
  • less than that (40.2%)

This is a fairly ambitious goal, and if achieved, this guarantees numerous base-runners for the aforementioned Freeman and Kemp to knock in.

So far it has been a slow start for both with each in the neighborhood of a .200 OBP.  Not good… and this actually explains a lot about the Braves’ offense.

As they go will also go the fortunes of the Braves.

122 homers in 2016. How many this season (NL middle last year was 189.5)?

  • 140 or more (75.6%)
  • less than that (24.4%)

We’re consistent.  You expected a solid homer haul from the big bats, so it follows that the rest of the team should do well in total.

That should work… assuming that pitchers don’t start pitching around both Freeman and Kemp.

Batting average of all pinch-hitters

  • .220 or better (50.9%)
  • Not as good (49.1%)

Gotcha thinking on this one.  Good – because the way the Braves’ bench is right now, this one is entirely up in the air.

That, of course, includes the ripe question about the very personnel that we’re even discussing here.

Show of hands for everyone who thinks the bench will consist of Peterson, d’Arnaud, Bonifacio, and Recker on June 1st?

Yeah – I didn’t think so either.

Team OPS among non-pitchers (.726 in 2016; .751 was league average)

  • .748 or better (66.5%)
  • Not as good (33.5%)

I like the optimism – I have to say that.

But the Braves really need that spark at the top of the batting order before this metric can possibly be achieved.

Before today… even taking out the pitchers… this figure was only in the high 600’s.

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