Is Catcher Prospect Carson Kelly The Answer For The Atlanta Braves?

Market Forces?

The cost for high-end catching is sky-high. The very best in the league such as Buster Posey, Yadier Molina, and Gary Sanchez are all untouchable, as would probably be the case with Jonathan Lucroy, too, if he weren’t a pending free agent.

There are just not enough game-changing catchers in the league to make giving one up worthwhile, so, for that reason, teams are likely to hold onto them when they get one.

Compare this position to second base, which is already a deep position and can draw from the SS and 3B pool to possibly fill the spot, as well.

For that reason, it’s essentially a guarantee that an over-payment will be necessary to get the Cardinals to budge– because there’s only a handful of teams in the league that are ecstatic about their catching situation going forward.

What’s the Cost?

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Once the Cardinals start fielding offers, St. Louis would likely be eager to get deep into talks with the Braves as they currently boast the consensus top farm system in baseball.

However, then the questions emerge, 1) does Atlanta have what they want?, and 2) would MLB talent be more appealing for them at this point?

Even if John Coppolella decides to go all-in for Kelly, the Cardinals may still prefer to be trade partners with a team like the White Sox, whose ace Jose Quintana has been rumored to St. Louis as recently as last week. 

Certainly, if the Cards opt to go for Quintana, catcher Kelly would be on the table.  So the clock might already be ticking here.

Additionally, the Cardinals don’t really have Alex Reyes to offer back to the White Sox since he’s done until 2018 with a Tommy John injury.  That pretty much insures Kelly being a part of any Quintana deal.

If St. Louis is fixed on acquiring a pitcher of Quintana’s caliber, then the only possibility from Atlanta would be Julio Teheran, which isn’t happening. 

The next best thing Atlanta could offer would be something like these combinations:

• Mike Foltynewicz (plus more) or…
• If the Cards are really competitive this year, one of Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, or another starting pitcher to go along with another significant prospect or two.
• They could choose to think longer term and ask for Abrahan Gutierrez, a catcher the Braves signed as a highly-touted International prospect… but as part of a larger package.
• Or it could be Ozzie Albies.  They might not ‘need’ him, but Albies does bring value and options.

Further Complicating Things

This might be best seen as a prospect-for-prospect swap… which does not happen very often.

As a result, this is tough to gauge.  We know these teams have already talked recently – that’s how Jaime Garcia became a Brave.  So it’s a matter of how much St. Louis thinks they can extract from Atlanta for a player everyone knows is blocked for up to 4 more years.

[ Ed. note:  I reached out to a Cardinals watcher for an opinion.  He believes that since Kelly would still be just 26 once Molina is done, that the price would remain high or Kelly… and that his playing time in the majors would only increase as Molina winds down.  This would not be cheap. ]