Is Catcher Prospect Carson Kelly The Answer For The Atlanta Braves?
Who is Carson Kelly?
To put it simply, Kelly is a very highly-touted catching prospect. He’s mentioned in both MLB.com (#37) and Baseball America’s (#65) top-100 prospect lists for 2017.
While the two sites differ on whether he’s the best catcher in the minors right now (MLB thinks so), they both agree that he has great defensive tools.
MLB.com graded Kelly’s arm a 60, with a 65 for fielding. These are both above-average, especially the fielding, which was the only 65 given for fielding among any of the top-10 catchers in the minors. Baseball America has Kelly’s arm at a 60, with his fielding at a 70.
Kelly would immediately bolster Atlanta’s ability to throw stealing base runners out. Last season, Tyler Flowers threw out only three base runners in 63 tries, or just under 4.8% of the time. This ranks as the worst by a catcher with at least 600 innings logged as the next worst was 13.6% by Nick Hundley.
Carson Kelly, on the other hand, had a CS% of 31% in 90 games between the Cardinals’ AA and AAA affiliates last season. This comes a season after Kelly won the Gold Glove Award for catchers in the minor leagues. So… yeah– this guy is good.
He’s just 22 years old from Chicago and was a former third baseman until the Cards moved him behind the plate in 2014, a move that’s certainly paid off.
Kelly is now knocking at the door of the major leagues after going through every level in the minors, even seeing a little bit of time in the majors last year.
But now… Yadi is gonna be sticking around for a while. Whether the Cardinals factor that into their price is a matter for debate.
Market Forces?
The cost for high-end catching is sky-high. The very best in the league such as Buster Posey, Yadier Molina, and Gary Sanchez are all untouchable, as would probably be the case with Jonathan Lucroy, too, if he weren’t a pending free agent.
There are just not enough game-changing catchers in the league to make giving one up worthwhile, so, for that reason, teams are likely to hold onto them when they get one.
Compare this position to second base, which is already a deep position and can draw from the SS and 3B pool to possibly fill the spot, as well.
For that reason, it’s essentially a guarantee that an over-payment will be necessary to get the Cardinals to budge– because there’s only a handful of teams in the league that are ecstatic about their catching situation going forward.
What’s the Cost?
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Once the Cardinals start fielding offers, St. Louis would likely be eager to get deep into talks with the Braves as they currently boast the consensus top farm system in baseball.
However, then the questions emerge, 1) does Atlanta have what they want?, and 2) would MLB talent be more appealing for them at this point?
Even if John Coppolella decides to go all-in for Kelly, the Cardinals may still prefer to be trade partners with a team like the White Sox, whose ace Jose Quintana has been rumored to St. Louis as recently as last week.
Certainly, if the Cards opt to go for Quintana, catcher Kelly would be on the table. So the clock might already be ticking here.
Additionally, the Cardinals don’t really have Alex Reyes to offer back to the White Sox since he’s done until 2018 with a Tommy John injury. That pretty much insures Kelly being a part of any Quintana deal.
If St. Louis is fixed on acquiring a pitcher of Quintana’s caliber, then the only possibility from Atlanta would be Julio Teheran, which isn’t happening.
The next best thing Atlanta could offer would be something like these combinations:
- Mike Foltynewicz (plus more) or…
- If the Cards are really competitive this year, one of Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, or another starting pitcher to go along with another significant prospect or two.
- They could choose to think longer term and ask for Abrahan Gutierrez, a catcher the Braves signed as a highly-touted International prospect… but as part of a larger package.
- Or it could be Ozzie Albies. They might not ‘need’ him, but Albies does bring value and options.
Further Complicating Things
This might be best seen as a prospect-for-prospect swap… which does not happen very often.
As a result, this is tough to gauge. We know these teams have already talked recently – that’s how Jaime Garcia became a Brave. So it’s a matter of how much St. Louis thinks they can extract from Atlanta for a player everyone knows is blocked for up to 4 more years.
[ Ed. note: I reached out to a Cardinals watcher for an opinion. He believes that since Kelly would still be just 26 once Molina is done, that the price would remain high or Kelly… and that his playing time in the majors would only increase as Molina winds down. This would not be cheap. ]
Would/Should Coppy Pursue This?
It’s not that hard to get a read on the ever-active John Coppolella.
While he has locked in and overpaid for targets such as Hector Olivera (which turned into Matt Kemp) and Nick Markakis in the past, he won’t – for the most part – execute a deal unless he knows that his side has won.
Because of this, one would think that a highly competitive market for someone like Carson Kelly would be a place that Coppy would not get too serious about, but this isn’t like the other deals– this is for a catcher, which has been easily the most gaping hole during Coppy’s tenure with the Braves.
After some minor remedies in the lower-levels such as drafting Brett Cumberland and trading for Alex Jackson, Coppy still hasn’t been able to do much to address the future of the catching position.
At least one other pursuit – an attempt to land Gary Sanchez before he became the Mike Trout of catching – simply didn’t work.
This could be it. It’s entirely possible that this is the avenue that Coppy takes. But, should he?
Other Choices are Slim, Expensive
If Coppy is still unwilling to give up the prospects it would take for a catcher, the only other tangible option would be free agency.
More from Tomahawk Take
- Braves News: Atlanta makes a pair of trades, prospect debuts, more
- Atlanta Braves History: How the Red Stockings became the Braves
- Braves News: Atlanta Braves acquire Eli White from the Texas Rangers
- Atlanta Braves Swing Trade with the New York Yankees for Lucas Luetge
- Atlanta Braves 2012 Top Prospects Review: Zeke Spruill
Outside of Lucroy, the only name even worth mentioning in the 2018 class is Matt Wieters and that’s if he declines his player option… and if we’d even want him starting at age 32.
We can already see that the market for Jonathon Lucroy is probably going to be just as competitive as Kelly’s market. Of course it’ll just be centered around a dollar-amount and not a package of prospects.
It comes down to whether Coppy wants to overpay in dollars or players – if at all – which is tough to judge. There’s also zero guarantee of success in the pursuit of a free agent like Lucroy.
Nonetheless, while signing Lucroy would give Atlanta one of the better lineups in baseball, the core of the team remains older and the Braves will have limited payroll flexibility for the foreseeable future.
Trading for Kelly would add to the young Braves’ core ready to make their mark in the majors, but would probably cost more than any of us are willing to think about right now.
Next: Mississippi Braves Roster Preview
Of course, Coppy could always sit back and be content with Tyler Flowers or a similarly skilled player behind the dish for the next couple years, but that doesn’t seem very Coppy-like, does it?