Atlanta Braves Lineup in 2013 vs. 2017: Who Ya Got?

Here’s an interesting thought: the Braves’ lineup this year might be better than it was the last time the Braves made the postseason.

After 4 games in 2016’s Grapefruit League play, the Atlanta Braves had a 1-2-1 record, en route to a final Spring count of 6-20.  And we know how that went once the season got underway for real.

I hate to be a prisoner of the moment, but this year’s edition is now just 1 bad inning (with minor leaguers playing) away from a 3-1 record.  And there’s this…

…damn.

That was actually before yesterday, which saw Freddie Freeman go 2 for 3, which actually lowered his average to .700.

I know, I know. Spring Training games are exhibitions– yes– but, the way that our lineup played in the second half of last year and how they’ve carried it into the spring is intriguing to say the least.

It made me wonder: is this year’s lineup better than it was in 2013?

To preface this piece, I’d like to say that in no way am I declaring this 2017 Braves team better than the 2013 team that won 96 games and won the NL East.

Outside of the Julio Teheran, who was on the 2013 staff, the pitching from top to bottom is much weaker this year.

Simply put, no four of Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Mike Foltynewicz, Jaime Garcia, Aaron Blair, Matt Wisler, or anyone else competing for a starting rotation spot can contest the 2013 rotation of Teheran, Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, Tim Hudson, and Paul Malhom.

Never mind that the 2017 team doesn’t have a Craig Kimbrel.

However…

The lineup is a different story.

John Coppolella has subtly put together a very solid lineup that features more consistency than the 2013 lineup had.

Here are the two lineups side-by-side:

*Yes– I know– there are a thousand clarifications that I need to make here.*

Primarily, I organized that 2013 lineup by the players’ average because they didn’t have an established lineup.

For instance, Gattis and Laird both started over 30 games at catcher, Heyward missed time due to his broken jaw, Melvin Upton Jr. had 446 plate appearances in the regular season, then three in the postseason, and there was generally just a lot of shakeups in the lineup.

As far as the 2017 lineup, it should be noted that Kemp’s numbers were from his full 2016 season, so they’re not nearly as good as his slash line with the Braves alone.

Also, Tyler Flowers‘ .270 average last year was in only 83 games and was by far the best of his career. It shouldn’t be expected that he hits that well next season. Lastly, of course, Ozzie Albies will presumably replace Brandon Phillips at some point this year.

What Do the Numbers Say Now?

Last year, the real Braves’ season started when Matt Kemp made his Braves debut on August 2nd (game #106). What the offense did before then doesn’t matter.

The offense immediately became legit: averaging 5.161 runs per game for the rest of the season. Pre-Kemp, the Braves averaged 3.448 runs/game and astonishingly didn’t even have a 10-game stretch in which they averaged five or more runs.

Oh, by the way, that 5.161 figure for August-on was 2nd in all of baseball behind the Rockies (and should they even be included?).

It got especially better when Dansby made his debut on August 17th. From that point on, the team averaged 5.357 runs per game.

For a team that went into the All-Star break with the least amount of runs scored, that’s pretty darn impressive.

The point is, the Braves offense that was near-tops in all of baseball at the end of last year is essentially the same going into this season…and we added DatDudeBP (and soon–Albies)!

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What Did the Numbers Say Then?

The 2013 team stats would tell you that the Braves won 96 games because of their pitching.

Allowing only 3.38 runs per game (1st in MLB), it would require only an average offense to win the NL East that year. And that’s what we had.

The team was 13th in scoring in 2013 with 688 runs (13 above the league average) which was 4.25 runs per game, only 0.08 above the league average.

They lived and died by the home run ball.

The 2013 team was…

• 21st in hits (1,354)
• 25th in doubles (247)
• 21st in triples (21)
• 24th in stolen bases (64)
• T-27th in strikeouts (1384– aka 3rd-most K’s)

while being…

• 5th in home runs (181)
• 11th in slugging percentage (.402)

It’s honestly quite lucky that the Braves’ numbers weren’t even worse.

If it weren’t for Freddie Freeman having a breakout year (hitting .319) and Chris Johnson having his only good year (.321), those numbers would’ve been even crummier.

The main problem was the Upton Bros and Dan Uggla. Despite representing 26.5% of the plate appearances, they accounted for only 22% of the hits and just about 35% of the team’s strikeouts.

Yikes.

Not to mention the defense guys. Andrelton Simmons and Jason Heyward were All-World defenders, but didn’t add much offensively (combined 4.4 oWAR). Plus, neither could play leadoff successfully, which would’ve been nice since M-Up Jr. had a .184 BA.

So in total – half the “lineup” was pulling all of the weight: they were living and dying by the long ball…