Feb 22, 2016; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves outfielder Braxton Davidson signs autographs during spring training workouts at ESPN's Wide World of Sports. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 22, 2016; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves outfielder Braxton Davidson signs autographs during spring training workouts at ESPN’s Wide World of Sports. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports /
Former Atlanta Braves first round selection Braxton Davidson had a rough 2016. Can he get on track in 2017?
Player Profile
The Atlanta Braves selected Braxton Cain Thomas Davidson in the first round of the 2014 draft, 32nd overall out of high school in North Carolina.
The Braves sent Davidson to their Gulf Coast League affiliate. He showed an excellent on base average, but not much else. In spite of the lack of other production, he did get a 13-game promotion to Danville in the advanced rookie Appalachian League.
Overall in 2014, Davidson hit .224/.387/.299 with no home runs or stolen bases, a 16.67% walk rate, and a 22.58% strikeout rate.
The Braves aggressively promoted Davidson to low-A Rome in the South Atlantic League for 2015. He played his games in right field, and showed much more ease at the position than his adventures in left field the previous year.
Sadly, the bat did not do much improving, as he hit .242/.381/.374 with 10 home runs and a stolen base, posting a 17% walk rate and a 27.33% strikeout rate.
Braxton showed up in 2016 looking to have done what has been termed by a number of scouts I’ve spoken with as the “bro” workout, his arms (and specifically, biceps) enhanced, but his overall strength not improved in the way an offseason of proper power lifting would have provided.
It led to a huge hole for Davidson in accessing his power, and on June 1st, Davidson was hitting .217/.302/.312 with just 2 home runs and 9 doubles after 45 games, having struck out 34.07% of the time.
To his credit, Davidson showed a great work ethic and got his body in shape and put the time in the cage to get his swing right. From June 1st to the end of the season, Davidson hit .229/.367/.387 with 8 home runs in 83 games, though the strikeout rate remained an alarming 36.53%
Overall on the season, Davidson hit .224/.344/.360 with 10 home runs and 4 stolen bases, posting a 13.76% walk rate and a 35.66% strikeout rate.
Davidson is listed as 6’2″ and 230 pounds and a left-handed hitter and thrower.
Hitting
Contact (35) – Davidson’s swing is a significant issue overall, though he doesn’t have an awkward stance that would would give you concern.
There is long load, and there is what Davidson has. He goes from a normal stance, but pulls his lead hip and swing back significantly before even beginning his swing.
He then drops the head of the bat down his back some before starting the path of the bat into the zone. Once the bat enters the zone, Davidson has average bat speed, which struggles to make up for his long load.
His path is certainly attempting to loft on most pitches, leading to an altered path through the zone.
Power (50) – If you saw Braxton at the field, you’d assume this was a guy who could put balls out of the stadium on the regular.
If you watched his batting practice displays, you’d think this guy was going to put at least one ball to the warning track every game and lay fear in the hearts of the pitchers.
The swing has some significant issues that make contacting the ball an issue, and he’ll never truly access that natural physical power until he can fix the swing.
Eye (45) – This is one of those tough grades. Do you consider his exceptional walk rate as a high mark for his eye, which would probably put him at a plus grade?
Or instead do you consider his striking out over 1/3 of the time in the last season and over 30% of his plate appearances in his minor league career, which would probably put a 20-30 grade on the eye?
In considering both, I ended up sort of splitting the baby to some degree. I did not go a full 50 because as I looked, you can typically assume another 5-10% of strikeout rate on a guy striking out over 20% of the time in any level of A-ball.
If you add in that, he’s suddenly striking out at a 40% clip, and there’s not a walk rate in the world that will make that playable.
Base Running/Fielding
Speed (40) – This grade is probably a touch low if you consider Braxton’s straight-line speed in the outfield after he gets a few steps, but in all seriousness, his feet are not going to be an asset on the bases in stealing or base running.
For a point on that, he’s stolen 5 bases in his 2+ seasons in the minor leagues…in 15 attempts.
Defense (50) – I was tempted to tick this up just a notch, but the early season returns on his defense were brought back as I watched tape on Davidson.
When he got himself right physically, he really played excellent defense in right field, showing solid instincts off the bat at the position. Something Fred (fireboss) and I have talked about on these forums multiple times is the ease of transition to outfield for certain infielders is often easier to their same side, even if their skills don’t exactly fit the prototype.
Braxton is a good example of that. His move to left field out of high school after playing primarily first base was a disaster defensively – reads were bad, positioning was off, etc.
However, just moving to the other side of the outfield has really shown Davidson to at least be a capable right fielder if even above-average.
Arm (55) – Davidson’s arm is not going to ever draw poetic mention the way Ray-Patrick Didder or Connor Lien do with their powerful arms.
However, Braxton has a solid arm and has learned well how to position himself to make accurate throws with his body in great position, and that is something to be commended for the work he’s done in that regard.
MLB Player Comp
I really struggled with this comp because Davidson is not a great comp at all to Richie Sexson and Russell Branyan. Those guys were limited to first base defensively, and they showed prodigious power in the major leagues, each having seasons of 30+ home runs as a major leaguer.
So, I did a look up by strikeout rate and by walk rate. In doing such, I found a guy that I’d rather forgotten about that is not just a perfect physical comp in body style, but in watching video, he had a lot of the same issues before turning himself into a quad-A slugger type now in his career.
Brandon Allen at one point was considered the next big power hitter for the Chicago White Sox. While his minor league strikeout rates have never been the rate Davidson experienced, he had numbers that made Davidson look patient and disciplined once he hit the majors.
Allen’s major league swing could have been a mirror image of Davidson’s, yet when I look at his play in the minor leagues now (he’s still kicking around AAA at 31 with just 389 career MLB plate appearances).
While Allen was able to access his power in the minors, the desire to go all out for it in the majors exposed the hole in his long load and poor path in his swing.
After a season of stagnation in 2016, it would not surprise me if Davidson ended up in high-A for a repeat time to get his swing overhauled.
It is something many fans and evaluators have seemingly forgotten that Davidson was one of the youngest in his draft class. In fact, highly heralded outfielder Blake Rutherford drafted in 2016 was born May 2nd, 1997, and Davidson was born June 18th, 1996. In other words, Davidson is just 10 1/2 months older than a player drafted this past season.
He’s not a guy to give up on yet by any means, but he could use some significant work on his swing and some “reset” time on his expectations of fans for the time being while he gets his feet back under him.
