Nov 2, 2016; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Salt River Rafters outfielder Dustin Peterson of the Atlanta Braves against the Scottsdale Scorpions during an Arizona Fall League game at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 2, 2016; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Salt River Rafters outfielder Dustin Peterson of the Atlanta Braves against the Scottsdale Scorpions during an Arizona Fall League game at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /
Atlanta Braves prospect Dustin Peterson really caught the eye of a lot of people with his performance in AA in 2016. Could he contribute in Atlanta in 2017?
Player Profile
The Atlanta Braves first acquired Peterson as part of the Justin Upton trade in the 2014-2015 offseason.
Peterson was originally drafted by the Padres in the 2nd round of the 2013 draft out of high school in Arizona, the same season his brother was the 12th overall selection by the Seattle Mariners coming out of college.
Drafted originally as a third baseman, Peterson played in 2013 in the Arizona Rookie League, hitting .293/.337/.344 with no home runs, but 3 steals in 172 plate appearances. He did make 14 errors in just 31 games in the field.
Peterson was promoted all the way to full season ball with the low-A Midwest League team in Fort Wayne in 2014. He struggled both at the plate and in the field, hitting .233/.274/.361 with 10 home runs and a stolen base over 563 plate appearances with a 25/137 BB/K ratio. He also made 38 errors at third base over 101 games in the field.
Peterson was moved by Braves brass to left field and took well to it. The Braves assigned Peterson to high-A Carolina, and he was yet another victim in performance of the Carolina Mudcats bus crash.
Before the bus crash, Peterson was hitting .314/.392/.448 with 3 home runs, 2 stolen bases, and a 14/21 BB/K ratio over 120 plate appearances. He was having the type of breakout season that would have put him on the radar of many Braves fans after the 2015 season.
Instead, after 2 1/2 weeks away from the team, he struggled upon his return and never looked fully healthy the rest of 2015, hitting .232/.294/.317 the rest of the way with 5 home runs, 4 stolen bases, and a 30/70 BB/K ratio over 378 plate appearances.
Combined, his 2015 line was .251/.317/.348 with 8 home runs and 6 stolen bases along with a 44/91 BB/K ratio over 498 plate appearances.
Peterson showed enough in 2015 when healthy to convince the Braves to send him to AA Mississippi in 2016. In one of the most difficult parks in the minor leagues on hitters, Peterson hit .282/.343/.431 with 12 home runs and 4 stolen bases. He also clubbed 38 doubles and 2 triples for 52 total extra bases. He had a 45/100 BB/K ratio over 578 plate appearances.
Peterson looks the part of a big time hitter and athlete at 6’2″ and 210 pounds. He carries the weight well at the plate with no over-build anywhere or “bad weight” either.
Hitting
Contact (50) – Many see Peterson’s long swing and assume that he has contact issues, but unlike a lot of guys with a “long” swing, Peterson’s length comes more in the back end of his swing and less in the front end.
He gets to the plate quickly and has quick hands to the ball, but he does have some length after the swing, which means that he will often end up with the ball on the ground or hit without a ton of force in the air due to his bat path.
He does make very solid contact and gets bat to ball, however, which is where some of the lower contact ratings do confuse me as the number is supposed to rate his ability to put the ball into play. He does this fairly well, but the quality of that ball in play is where I leave the grade as a 50 rather than higher.
Power (55) – Peterson’s power was eaten up plenty in the park in Mississippi, but he certainly has some excellent gap power, as indicated by his 38 doubles, which were no fluke of the park.
As mentioned in the contact section, his bat path is less than ideal, so he doesn’t get great loft on the ball, with his bat path typically being best suited for line drives and short fly balls rather than deep home runs.
Peterson likely is not a guy who will be a consistent 30 home run guy without some swing changes, but I could see him having a single season where he tops that number, but probably he’d settle more into a 15-20 home run annually sort of guy.
Eye (50) – While Peterson may not walk an incredible amount, he does have a solid strike zone knowledge as evidenced by his strike zone rate being sub-20% through most of his minor league career. He is able to consistently put bat to ball, exhibiting his good recognition and hand/eye as well.
Base Running/Fielding
Speed (45) – While he may not rate with tremendous first to home speed or 60 yard times, Peterson is a very solid athlete. He takes a few steps to get going, but once he is going, he has very solid speed overall.
One thing to note is while he won’t probably ever steal 30 bases, Peterson has high instincts and gets a good jump before he ever takes off, so when you see his stolen base attempts, those are all times when he had a very good read or he was part of a hit-and-run.
Defense (55) – Due to that less-than-great first step quickness, Peterson has worked very hard on reading balls in the outfield to get solid jumps on balls off the bat.
He’s shown excellent reads on balls from either corner, though it was noted that he had some adventures when injuries and call-ups led to Peterson needing to fill center for a day.
Arm (50) – In raw arm strength, Peterson is a 50, but one of the things he’s worked hard at doing in the outfield is placing his feet well behind him when making a catch to maximize his throw.
He’s shown very solid accuracy from the outfield as well. It may not seem like a ton compared to many in the system, but Peterson’s 13 outfield assists over the last two seasons with what is considered a fringe-average arm for a corner outfield spot does speak to how well he’s shown for his accuracy and footwork in the outfield.
MLB Player Comp
I’ve been saying this for multiple years on Peterson that I saw his MLB comp being Alex Gordon. Gordon is nowhere near an elite athlete in the outfield, but he uses excellent reads off the ball to be one of the best defenders in left field in the league.
Offensively, there are plenty of similarities as well. While Gordon had plenty of prospect hype coming up through the Royals system as a future 30/30 hitter that was going to be an offensive force for years to come from the hot corner, he’s settled into a guy who hits .255-.280 with solid doubles power and 15ish home runs annually.
Gordon is also more athlete than he is pure runner at the pro level as well, which is where his instincts in the outfield have come into play, something that Peterson has shown strides on ever since moving to the outfield.
Peterson will make a good argument for AAA Gwinnett in 2017, though that’s becoming a very loaded outfield at this point going into the spring. He very well could see the major leagues at some point in 2017, but I do think his first opportunity to impact the Braves lineup will be in 2018.
