Mar 8, 2016; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Sean Newcomb (78) throws during the fourth inning of a spring training baseball game against the New York Mets at Champion Stadium. The Braves won 5-4. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 8, 2016; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Sean Newcomb (78) throws during the fourth inning of a spring training baseball game against the New York Mets at Champion Stadium. The Braves won 5-4. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports /
Sean Newcomb took big strides doing what the Atlanta Braves coaching asked of him in 2016. What should we expect in 2017 from him?
Player Profile
The Atlanta Braves originally acquired Newcomb as the key prospect in return for slick-fielding shortstop Andrelton Simmons.
Newcomb graduated from high school in Massachusetts and went to college at the University of Hartford without being drafted out of high school. However, his profile had escalated such in his collegiate time that he was the 15th overall selection in the 2014 draft.
The Angels started Newcomb out with their Arizona Rookie League team, and he made two starts there before moving up to their low-A team in the Midwest League for four starts, which did not go so well.
Combined, he made 6 starts in 2014, threw 14 1/3 innings (after almost 100 in college that spring), finishing with a 6.28 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and a 6/18 BB/K ratio. He did get some prospect note, being rated as the #70 prospect by Baseball America and the #67 prospect by MLB.com.
Newcomb opened the 2015 season with Burlington in the Midwest League, and after dominating there for 7 starts, he earned a promotion to high-A in the Cal League, which also went well, sending him to AA in the Texas League to close out the season.
Combined on the year, he made 27 starts, throwing 136 innings with a 2.38 combined ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and a 76/168 BB/K ratio. He jumped up rating systems, ranking #24 by Baseball America, #21 by MLB.com, and #32 by Baseball Prospectus.
The Atlanta Braves acquired Newcomb along with Erick Aybar and Chris Ellis in exchange for Simmons and catcher Jose Briceno in the 2015-2016 offseason.
Newcomb and Braves staff set to work on his mechanics and approach on the mound, hoping to improve his ability to go deep into games and to also improve his command. He took each change one at a time, and it was notable in his results.
Newcomb spent the entire season at AA Mississippi, posting overall numbers of 27 starts, 140 innings, 3.86 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and a 71/152 BB/K ratio.
When you break down his season, you can really see in his numbers what was evident on the field in watching him.
The Braves let him open with “his stuff”, and after three starts, they started making changes to his mechanics. At that point, the ERA number was pretty, but the underlying numbers showed what they wanted to change. He had gone exactly 5 innings in each outing, so he posted 15 total innings, allowing a 2.40 ERA, but also posting a 10/16 BB/K ratio.
The first game where his new mechanics really started to click consistently for the entire game was May 27th. In between, he had a run of 6 starts, where he threw 31 innings, posting a 4.65 ERA and a 19/30 BB/K ratio.
The team really allowed him to pitch through June with his new mechanics feeling right, and he opened July working with a new approach. Those 6 starts covered 32 2/3 innings, with a 3.58 ERA, and notably a 10/32 BB/K ratio.
That new approach in July led to a rough patch as he changed how he approached batters in every at bat, and the first game that he seemed visibly comfortable on the mound was his last start in July, on the 30th against Birmingham.
In the starts in the meantime, he made 5 starts, throwing 21 2/3 innings with a 7.48 ERA and a 18/21 BB/K ratio. Most notably, he allowed just four home runs on the entire season, and he allowed 2 of them in those 5 starts.
Now comfortable in his new mechanics and his new approach, Newcomb ended the season on a tear, making 7 starts, throwing 39 2/3 innings with a 2.04 ERA, and a 14/51 BB/K ratio. He allowed a .174 opponents’ batting average, with a quite-normal .266 BABIP as well, showing just how well his approach and movement were working against hitters.
Size – Newcomb is what’s known in the game as a “horse”, standing 6’5″ and listed at 255 pounds. He’s not overly heavy by any means in his frame, though, carrying a lot of that weight in his powerful legs.
Delivery – In the alterations in his mechanics, Newcomb went from a more violent, explosive delivery to a more tempered, even delivery this season.
He works shaded to the first base side of the rubber. He steps back toward third and has a high knee tuck up to his letters as he tucks his right hip away from the plate.
He takes a long stride forward, straightening out his lead foot as he lays it down, which does affect timing of the hitter just a touch.
Newcomb then brings his body around in a snap, the one part of his delivery still explosive, but very similar to the way that old Braves pitchers used to have a delivery that would nearly lull you to sleep before they snapped the ball toward the plate.
Newcomb then comes to the plate with a low 3/4 delivery. One of the benefits of his overhauled mechanics is that he has tremendous repeatability in his arm slot now.
Newcomb does still get tired, and you saw in his playoff starts the effects of getting more innings on his arm than he has ever before as he struggled with getting deep into his legs as he hit the ground on his delivery, something he does excellent typically. That led to a higher walk rate as he tried to compensate with his arm, but his instinct to keep his arm in the same slot led to more balls out of the zone.
Control (50) – Newcomb is a perfect example of command and control and the difference. Newcomb’s improved arm slot consistency drastically improved his command in 2016, and he frequently hit his catcher right in the glove presented without movement.
However, Newcomb gets tremendous movement in all of his pitches, sometimes carrying the pitch a hair out of the zone. Now, what I will say is that often he would still catch the strike zone, but the movement was such that it surprised the umpire, I believe, and the minor league umpire called it a strike.
For those who missed the distinction, when you read in a report about a pitcher’s command, the person writing that report is discussing the pitcher’s ability to hit the catcher’s mitt consistently.
When referring to control, the report will be discussing the ability to consistently get a strike call. While Newcomb has taken significant strides forward in his command in 2016, he still was working on the added movement that taking a hair of velocity off of his pitches gave to him, which I truly believe will be something you’ll see him gain in 2017.
Pitches
Fastball (65) – Newcomb’s fastball sits here for me rather than a 70 simply due to the control stuff, but in pure velocity, Newcomb did find an extra tick with his new mechanics this year, topping out at 99 MPH in two starts.
The work he did in his approach was to use his excellent four-seam fastball with a ton of late movement low in the zone and to take a hair off to improve his command of the pitch. That meant that rather than working from 92-95 and touching 97, he was now working more like 90-93, but he was able to touch 99.
The ball moves very well with a tailing action arm side with lefties, while he seems to work the ball with a more direct cutting action to righties.
Change Up (55) – The consistency of his arm slot and taking a hair off in velocity across the board really made his change up play up, and that was missed by some who saw Newcomb early in the season.
His change works in the range of 81-84, giving him a solid velocity differential, but the big piece that showed up was his control of the pitch. While command ticked up on all his pitches with taking a tick off of his velocity, his change was the one that saw a huge improvement in control.
Continuing to throw as he did to end 2016 will allow the change to improve to a plus pitch for him, which would give him three plus offerings off the mound.
Curve Ball (60) – Newcomb’s curve has an extremely tight rotation and often gets mistaken for a slider due to the hard break. The pitch works in the upper 70s, touching 81-82 on the top end.
He tends to see more slurvy action to the pitch when he gets at the top end of his velocity, but the pitch has hard, distinct curve break in the 77-79 range, and the pitch is an absolute strikeout pitch, and if hitters get any wood on the pitch, it’s a weak pop up or a ground out.
The biggest issue I saw with the pitch that didn’t grade it even higher was that in his taking some velocity off this year, he was getting much more depth on the pitch, and that did lead to a number of pitches ending up out of the zone. If he can get that pitch back to the zone with the “new” movement on the pitch, it could even tick up another half-grade or so.
MLB Player Comp
The delivery and arm slot that Newcomb generates from the left side remind me tremendously of one Randy Johnson. Obviously, Newcomb is about 5 inches shorter.
In his new approach to pitching, he really reminds me strongly of the way Chris Sale changed his approach in 2014, which has perhaps led to less strikeouts, but seemingly just as much “dominance” off the mound.
Sale has lowered his walk rate since coming into the majors from ~10% as a reliever when the White Sox first brought him up, to ~6.5% when he first transitioned to starter, to now around ~5% with a more contact-oriented approach.
Sale works well with a unique arm slot, similar to what Johnson did as well, from a height more akin to Newcomb’s 6’5. However, neither guy looks like the bouncer from a rowdy bar the way Newcomb does on the mound!
Newcomb has come a long way in just a year in the Braves development system, and I think Braves fans should be very excited about what more could be there.
He is a great lesson in overreacting to raw numbers without understanding that the minor leagues are a consistent pattern of development for players, and frankly, the players and coaches aren’t out there to get a win or to worry about stat lines. Their job is to develop players for the major league club.
In that respect, Newcomb took a huge step forward, and it’s a good note to be wary of those national publications that discuss taking any sort of step back as they’re likely looking at the stat line without seeing the underlying reasoning for what he was working on.
He should open with AAA Gwinnett and could make an appearance in Atlanta quickly with a big performance in 2017.
