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Atlanta Braves: Busy Shopping Next Off-Season?

By Alan Carpenter

Sep 1, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Mike Foltynewicz (26) delivers a pitch against the San Diego Padres in the first inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sportsa
Sep 1, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Mike Foltynewicz (26) delivers a pitch against the San Diego Padres in the first inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sportsa /
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Oct 3, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper (34) is hit with a pitch during the sixth inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Washington Nationals won 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 3, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper (34) is hit with a pitch during the sixth inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Washington Nationals won 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports /

More Player Movement Via Trade

It used to be easy to understand.  Give your pending free agent a Qualifying Offer (QO), and your team gets a 1st Round (sandwich) pick when he signs with another club.

The signing club loses their first-available draft pick – the only exception being if they have a protected Top-10 pick.  That was the entire scheme.

Well, once teams decided that those draft picks were more valuable than the marginal-QO players, that system became a “change at all costs” part of the new CBA.

Hang with me on this next bit…

Here’s how Free Agent Compensation works now:

  • Qualifying Offers still exist, though a player can only be tagged with one once – ever.
  • $50 million is the price of importance for new contracts made with QO players
  • Teams are ranked as (A) luxury tax violators; (B) revenue sharing recipients; or (C) neither.  These categories determine payment and compensation for free agents won or lost.

As you look through the rest, note that the Atlanta Braves will be a (C) Club.

If a QO guy signs for $50 million-plus, then…

  • Losing team:  gains a new draft pick at end of (A) 4th, (B) 1st, or (C) 2nd rounds
  • Signing team: loses (A) 2nd & 5th round picks plus $1 million of International pool money; (B) 3rd round pick only; (C) 2nd highest available pick and $500K of International money.

if a QO guy signs for under $50 million, then…

  • Losing team: (A) gets end-of-4th round draft pick; while both (B) and (C) get end of 2nd round picks.
  • Signing team:  same as above

Suppose a team signs 2 QO guys?

  • (A) teams:  the above penalty, plus loss of 3rd and 6th highest draft picks and another $1 million of International pool money.
  • (B) teams:  the above penalty, plus loss of 4th highest draft pick.
  • (C) teams:  the above penalty, plus 3rd highest draft pick and another $500K of International pool money.

Competitive Balance picks – which are tradable – are exempt from loss via this scheme.  A team might, however, gain AND lose picks via multiple free agent transaction in a single year.

Let’s Get Practical

Here is Exhibit A to illustrate the trouble teams will now have:

Bryce Harper plays for the Nationals, a Class C team (my designation) by this reckoning.  Harper will be a free agent after the 2018 season.

If they lose him, the Nationals would stand to receive an end-of-the-second-round draft pick… probably around 65th-70th overall.

So if you’re the Nationals, what do you do?  Hold him for that pick or trade him after 2017 in the hopes of getting 2-3 premium prospects?

Tough decision – if you’re still expecting to be contending in 2018 – but after getting Adam Eaton this winter, the Nats might want to cash in their trade chip while they can.

That’s the scenario the new CBA is creating:  one in which more trades should be encouraged among teams that won’t get back that 1st rounder any longer.

All of that to say this:  while the post-2017 free agent market will be better than the one we’re in right now, it could be flooded with extra players as teams realize the draft-pick math involved.

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