Atlanta Braves vs. the NL East in 2017: New York Mets.

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Oct 1, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; New York Mets right fielder Curtis Granderson (3) talks to left fielder Yoenis Cespedes (52) during a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports /

Is Pitching and Cespedes Enough?

Back on that hope theme, we now encounter the Mets offense.

There was a lot to like in 2016. Even without David Wright and adding an invisible Jay Bruce, fangraphs ranked them 7thin the NL in 2016. However, the club ranked only 11th in runs scored – despite a 97 (tied for 6th with the Nats) in wRC+. They were also 7th in team OPS in the NL.

Will they get Wright back? I’m seeing a lot of words that avoid the subject including “Yes”, “until further notice”, “starting a comeback”… and even some “I don’t see how“.

If so, that’s a huge plus for them – obviously. If not… then there’s a lot of other pieces that will need to repeat very good years for this club to be productive:

Neil Walker: 3.7* WAR, 122 wRC+, 23* HR, .823* OPS, and .282 avg.
Cespedes: 3.2, 134, 31, .884, .280
Asdrubal Cabrera: 3.0, 119*, 23, .810*, .280
Curtis Granderson: 2.6, 114, 39, .799, .237

* – career highs marked

All of that is excellent production – and Walker missed over 1/4 of the season. Michael Conforto is also waiting in the wings and looking for playing time to prove that he belongs in this group.

But will that last? Can they sustain it?

Also, I’m still not personally sold on the Mets’ defensive abilities. That despite good scores in metrics in 2016 and a tie for 11th in baseball for fewest errors.

They also turned the 8th fewest double plays and recorded the 5th fewest number of “out of zone” plays last year. They were 10th lowest in Defensive Runs Saved also. All of that points to limited range for a number of their defenders. That leads to more opposition runs.

Sure – the Braves were worse in all of those categories. But that’s a team with a different makeup coming into 2017. The Mets are virtually identical, and they’re all now a year older, too. Such things will undermine a pitching staff – even a great one.

More from Tomahawk Take

In short, the Mets need a lot of things to go Wright for them to overcome the Nationals. Their pitching will probably hold. Their offense will probably be a little less potent than in 2016, but that might be enough given the starting pitching.

But their bullpen is a disaster waiting to happen, and it has the potential to undo all of the good things the rest of this team could accomplish.

Could the Mets win the NL East? Yes… if the Nationals’ bullpen combined with a key injury both derail that locomotive. Is it likely that they improve on an 87-75 record? No.

Is it more likely that they degenerate into a mediocre mass of baseball humanity with multiple key players on the DL again? Yeah… it really is.

Vegas odds-makers put the Mets chances of winning the World Series around 7th to 9th overall so far. That frankly sounds wildly optimistic to me (and a poor return for a $100 bet even if I’m wrong… heck for those odds, I’d kinda like the Braves, who’d pay $15,000 – even though I don’t gamble).

Next: A View At The Top

Put me down for the Mets treading water… something between 80 and 88 wins and second place in the division. But no Wild Card.

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