House That Hank Built
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Just When You Thought Catching Might Be Settled

By Alan Carpenter

Sep 21, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles catcher Matt Wieters (32) fields a ground ball in the sixth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 21, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles catcher Matt Wieters (32) fields a ground ball in the sixth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 23, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves catcher Tyler Flowers (25) connects for an RBI double during the sixth inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 23, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves catcher Tyler Flowers (25) connects for an RBI double during the sixth inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /

Comparison from Experience?

Let’s comp Wieters to two catchers that we all know well.

Brian McCann, who’s 2 years and 3 months older, averages a .799 OPS and 113 wRC+ over the scope of his career (with a .748 and 103 in his latest season).

Tyler Flowers went for .777 and 110 marks in 2016… actually something of a resurgence for him – 4 months older than Wieters – since .686 and 88 are his career numbers.

Is there a fluke for Wieters in his 2016 comeback numbers?

His splits are… odd.  Wieters hit .214 in April and had a horrid July (.117).  May was outstanding (.333) and the rest of the months were essentially normal for him (.253-.264).

More important to the Braves, though, might be his AB’s against RH pitching since Flowers is sticking around and there’s something of a platoon opportunity with the RHH Flowers and the switch-hitting Wieters… kinda.

Indeed the long-time Oriole did hit better as a lefty (.253) in 2016 with a .747 OPS and 97 wRC+.  Those numbers do kinda hold up against his career chart … (.250/.717/91 wRC+), though his hitting off LHP is actually better when you add in those good seasons from 2010-2013.

Either way, Flowers actually had a reverse-split in 2016 – hitting better vs. RHP (.277) than LHP (.258) and virtually identical OPS and wRC+ numbers that beat Wieters all around… if you believe that Flowers will repeat that in 2017.

So all that to say “I have no idea how the Braves might use Wieters if they actually landed him.”  It’s just not a great fit overall.

That Price Thing

This saga is going to go on for quite a while.  But let me suggest a past corollary to the drama that could play out here:  Michael Bourn.

Both Bourn and Wieters are clients of uber-agent Scott Boras.

Back in the 2012 off-season, Bourn declined a $13.3 million qualifying offer from the Atlanta Braves.  With Boras running his playbook, word was that he was looking for something in the neighborhood of 5 years and $75 million for a new free agent deal… and he would wait for that to happen.

That didn’t happen.

Bourn lingered… and lingered… and lingered… on the market.  None of the rumored teams with definitive needs bit on the veteran center fielder.

Finally – on February 11th, a week before Spring Training camps opened – he signed with Cleveland for 4 years and $48 million.  There was a vesting option for 2017, but that was never exercised.  Even so, the contract was considered ‘bad’ after the third season.

Admittedly, the difference here is fairly dramatic – it’s not a clean comparison.  Two drastically different positions are involved, plus Wieters is not saddled with the yoke of a Qualifying Offer this season.

Still, it’s Boras and a veteran with declining skills that has to be projected for (possibly) multiple years with few possible landing spots.

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