House That Hank Built
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Atlanta Braves Getting Dissed By Rosenthal?

By Alan Carpenter

Oct 15, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs catcher Miguel Montero (47) is interviewed by Ken Rosenthal after defeating the Los Angeles Dodgers during game one of the 2016 NLCS playoff baseball series at Wrigley Field. Cubs won 8-4. Mandatory Credit: Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 15, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs catcher Miguel Montero (47) is interviewed by Ken Rosenthal after defeating the Los Angeles Dodgers during game one of the 2016 NLCS playoff baseball series at Wrigley Field. Cubs won 8-4. Mandatory Credit: Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 27, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher David Price (24) reacts after giving up a two-run home run to New York Yankees first baseman Tyler Austin (26) during the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 27, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher David Price (24) reacts after giving up a two-run home run to New York Yankees first baseman Tyler Austin (26) during the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports /

That High-Risk High Reward Thing

Let’s move on to another point from Rosenthal:

"Club officials also are high on the upside of the Braves’ bevy of young pitchers, even though some rival executives and prospect analysts view most of those pitchers as high-risk types with ceilings as mid-rotation starters."

First off, how many true ‘Aces’ are there in baseball?  A dozen?  Fifteen?

There are 150 rotation jobs in the major leagues.  If you don’t believe that filling those 150 slots isn’t valuable to an organization, then please see what Rich Hill‘s contract looks like.  Or that of 43-year-old Bartolo Colon.  Even back-end-of-the-rotation guys have value – especially if they can reliably proivde innings and keep their team in games.

But about these “high risk” “high-upside” guys…if your organization doesn’t have these kinds of pitchers, then you will have a lot of something else:  I call these guys ‘5th starters’, ‘AAAA’, and ‘relievers’.

Teams need players with high ceilings – because it is seldom that you see an 10th-40th round draft pick develop into something more.

Let’s look here’s the draft positions of the top 11 drafted pitchers with the top pitching WAR this year:

What have the Braves done in rebuilding their farm system?  They’ve bought, begged, scraped and connived to bring back top talent:

That clearly doesn’t mean that all of these guys are going to turn into those on the prior list… but this is exactly the kind of talent that makes those ace-level pitchers.

Will some of these guys fail to make the majors?  Yes – absolutely.  But that’s why you see a lot of 3-for-1 like trades when shipping prospects out for major league talent… it’s because of the hope that one of the 3 will ‘hit’… not that all 3 will.

But for Rosenthal to suggest that there are not impact players in this crop because they only project to ‘mid-rotation starters’ is preposterous.  Just as the Rays about how many hits they’ve had recently on their starters – not just Archer, but ‘mid-rotation’ arms Smyly, Odorizzi, or Moore.

Besides:  there are as many evaluations as evaluators and even Jim Callis and the MLB Pipeline people now have 4 Braves’ pitchers in the Top 100 overall… and that doesn’t even count Fried or Toussaint.

How many other clubs can say that Ken?

In short:  beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but to complain about ‘high risk’ talent is to complain against all pitchers in general… for they’re all ‘high risk’.

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