Atlanta Braves Acquire Jaime Garcia

Reasons Maybe?

Obviously I can’t definitively answer that but one answer could be that Gant and Dykstra were not in future plans.  Gant’s stuff is basically average for a backend starter and Dykstra’s fielding is “fringy” according to Jim Callis. We have more than a couple better than both in the system. Ellis is good stuff but looks like ending up a reliever.

Could he turn into a multi-inning fireballer? Maybe who knows? Right now he’s just one of many.  With that view a shot that Garcia has at least a solid year in exchange for excess players is worth the exchange. Another reason could be a deeper look at statistics we don;t normally play with around here.

DRA- and cFIP

Before I start note that I do not claim to be an expert or even understand how these are calculated. I read what they set out to do and using them makes Garcia a little more understandable.  To start with a definition is probably good.

Contextual FIP (cFIP) “. . .cFIP seeks to provide this missing context (for FIP). . .(and) is modeled to adjust for, as appropriate, the effect of the individual batter, catcher and umpire; the stadium; home-field advantage; umpire bias; and the handedness relationship between pitcher and batter present during each individual plate appearance. . .”

Proponents say that cFIP  is more predictive than other pitcher estimators, especially in smaller samples and equally accurate as a descriptive and predictive statistic.   cFIP is on a 100 “minus” scale, 100 is perfectly average, scores below 100 are better, and scores above 100 are worse. . . “

The chart is modified from the reference article for size.

Deserved Run Average “ . . .DRA controls for the context in which each event of a game occurred. . .(it) goes well beyond strikeouts, walks, hit batsman, and home runs, and considers all available batting events. DRA does not explain everything by any means, but its estimates appear to be more accurate and reliable than the alternatives. “

Like cFIP, DRA – is DRA concerted to a 100 “minus” scale, 100 is perfectly average, scores below 100 are better, and scores above 100 are worse

How does Garcia fare using those criteria? In 2016 he posted a cFIP of 93 and a DRA- of 91.2 and while I’m Baseball Prospectusing you to death his total average against Tav (how hitters really hit him) was .281. Having said that BP suggests his opposition have a Tav of .261.  You can find all of Garcia’s BP numbers ($) by clicking this link.

Using more familiar numbers BP says Garcia posted a 58% ground ball rate and with a middle infield that’s supposed to be pretty good that makes a difference. Last year the Cardinals defense was less than stellar even though Garcia’s BAbip doesn’t show it.