House That Hank Built
Fansided

Reflecting on the Latest Atlanta Braves Trade

By Alan Carpenter

Sep 30, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto conducts an interview in the dugout before a game against the Houston Astros at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 30, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto conducts an interview in the dugout before a game against the Houston Astros at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 30, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto conducts an interview in the dugout before a game against the Houston Astros at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 30, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto conducts an interview in the dugout before a game against the Houston Astros at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports /

What Atlanta is Getting

The upside is real for Alex Jackson… if he can harness himself and that bat.  He was ranked as high as a #20 overall prospect after being drafted 6th overall in 2014, but falling to 94th a year ago.  Doubtless, he’ll fall off that BaseballAmerica chart this season, but it’s all about ‘potential’ here.

First, I’ll hit on the speculative parts:

  • Could the Braves use him as bait and flip him in another deal? I don’t believe that’s the motivation here.  This is a ‘needs for needs’ deal on both ends – albeit for prospects on both sides.
  • Jackson is an outfielder, but could be converted to catcher?  While I am hearing rumblings that this is possible, I’m also going to suggest that this probably  won’t be done either.  He was a catcher in high school, but Seattle put him in the outfield immediately.  Either way, the Braves need to work on his bat, and that’s going to be the focus.

The scouting grades on Jackson are… curious.  Currently shown as 45 for his Hit tool.  This sounds low, though is likely colored by early results… we’ll get to that.

Coppy is probably looking at Jackson and thinking ‘Mickey Moniak with power’.  Mickey was the ‘best high school hitter on the draft board’ this past Summer.  This is the label that Jackson had on him when drafted in 2014… but he didn’t start very well.

The key phrase in Jackson’s MLB Pipeline write-up is this:  “The Mariners held him back in extended spring training in 2016, noting that he needed to mature both on and off the field.”

If you’re wondering why the Mariners gave up on Jackson so quickly, there’s probably a couple of factors:

  • He wasn’t obtained on Jerry DiPoto’s watch, so he wasn’t ‘married’ to the investment (a draft day bonus of more than $4 million)
  • They essentially replaced Jackson… and surpassed him… by drafting Kyle Lewis this Summer
  • When Atlanta asked about him for a pair of starting pitchers, they likely leaped at the chance to get that much value for him.

There were signs of improvement out of Jackson in 2016 on the field… no word about other issues… that should encourage the Braves are who they are getting.  A .157 average in A-ball in 2015 was hoisted to .243 in 2016 with an OPS going from .453 (yikes) to .740 (better).  He was hurt (shoulder) in 2015

The power is real, too:  11 homers in 92 games with 20 doubles to go with that this year.  The biggest concern is strikeouts – close to a 30% pace (103 of them) in 381 plate appearances.  However, he also accepted 34 walks.

Jackson will be 21 on Christmas Day, and it will be interesting to see where the Braves’ place him.  It will be either Rome or Kissimmee… and I’m personally hoping for Rome to start with.

If he can harness that strikeout rate while maintaining the bat speed and power, then the performance will follow quickly.  Whether he’ll then maintain the discipline to progress is the wild card question that may be the difference between making the majors… or not.

That said, he clearly has some work to do:  even while losing Whalen from his list, Ben doesn’t see Jackson cracking his Braves’ Top 20 at this point.

(MLB Pipeline puts him 13th, but then they hate our pitchers).

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