Atlanta Braves Question: What If They Stop Here?

Checking the Numbers

I have a simple model that I have been using over the past 2-3 years to project team performance:  total team WAR, as reported by fangraphs.

So it isn’t like this is some super-secret formula – and in fact, I expect that fangraphs contributors would say “Well… yeah, of course it works.”

From their annualized Team stats, I take their team WAR for position players (includes offensive and defensive components) and add it to the same for pitching.

Here’s the results for 2016:

[table id=60 /]

DISCUSSION

In general, if you have a 40 WAR team… you are a playoff team.  This year actually had a couple of anomalies in the data, though they are explainable:

• TEXAS.  At 28.6 WAR, this team had no business making the playoffs at all – especially being out-pointed by nearly three teams in their own division.  What’s whackier is that their race wasn’t even close:  9 games over second place Seattle.

The reason for the Rangers’ success was that they killed the Astros (15-4!) and Mariners (12-7).  They ended up 28 games over .500 and 16 of those could be attributed to those 2 opponents.  That’s something not easily repeatable.

• BALTIMORE.  The Orioles barely made the post-season, and were clinging to the ledge through most of the year’s second half after a nice start.  They, like the Giants, took advantage of opponents that scuffled early on (Boston and Toronto with pitching; the Yankees with… everything) … then more-or-less coasted the rest of the way.

On the flip side, the Cardinals (39.2 WAR) showed that being in a strong division is not a path to success, despite your own decent showing.  The Astros should have made the playoffs… but they couldn’t even be the best team in their own state.

Okay, so what about Atlanta?

That requires some projections.