Atlanta Braves Analysis Of Dave O’Brien Timeline
The Faster I Go, The Further Behind I Get
First question: “How long do you think it’ll take the Braves to get back to contending for the World Series?”
I'll wait to guess that once we see where payroll is going. That could be a very big part of the timetable. https://t.co/M1gwA1KeW2
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) November 3, 2016
Related comment: “I’m aware of that. I meant that they’ll have to sign someone. They aren’t going to draft their way into the World Series.”
Yes, then you also be aware that Coppy has said, and said again today, they'll be active on FA market. They've got $ again finally. https://t.co/RLvIhr0dSo
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) November 5, 2016
Related comment: “Not going to win without spending money. Even with all those high draft picks. Cubs won because of free agents.”
Yes, and Cubs are a cash cow with huge revenues and a ballpark that's filled every day. https://t.co/ImpP8RgF0R
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) November 5, 2016
We are certainly well aware that this year’s free agent crop is not a good one. Correspondingly, even if it was a shopper’s market, there are issues, because…
- Baseball salaries are not getting any cheaper. The 2016-17 Qualifying Offer level of $17.2 million is quite sufficient to tell us that.
- Any decent free agent is going to command – and get – a four or five year deal (minimum). That’s a lot to plan ahead for… both in terms of time and cash.
- Also, there’s this newly dusted-off ‘player option’ clause that many free agents want these days (AKA, the ‘opt out clause’). If he sucks, you’re stuck. If he’s great, he’s gone.
- The Braves will not be inclined to pursue players demanding such clauses, a stance that will likely limit them from getting the best players available… though it is also a policy I happen to agree with.
SunTrust Park is the locus of a new and larger revenue stream for the Braves, yet it still represents only a means to ‘keep up’ and not ‘get ahead’ of their rivals. Let’s just take a quick future-scoping look at our NL East rivals, for example:
- Mets. They are still working out some financial woes (related to stadium, Bernie Madoff), but once those finally clear… watch out.
- Nationals. They are already spending money. When their rights’ issues with the Orioles and MASN finally clear, Katie… bar the door.
- Phillies. After peaking at $177 million payroll in 2014, the Phils were down to half that in 2016 and are now down to virtually zero future obligations as they pay Ryan Howard and Charlie Morton to go away. They literally have enough money to do anything – now.
- Marlins. Meh… never mind.
The Braves will be stuck with their TV deal – though it’s better than it was – for another decade. This comment, though, is likely a very good analysis of the issue:
@kenwebb1313 unfortunately the bubble on televised sports is bursting and by the time they renew won't be anything like 5 yr ago
— Doug Puckett (@drolives) November 4, 2016
Why? Because so many people are “unplugging” from cable and thus reducing the revenue stream to sports channels. Thus, the timing could be such that the Braves will not be able to sniff deals like those of the Dodgers or Diamondbacks.
Thus the importance of a successful launch of SunTrust Park and Battery Atlanta. It’s not only about money… it’s in fact entirely about money.