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Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: Over/Under Contest

By Alan Carpenter

May 11, 2016; Las Vegas, NV, USA; General view of slot machines at the McCarran International Airport. Oakland Raiders owner Mark Davis (not pictured) has pledged $500 million toward building a 65,000-seat domed stadium in Las Vegas at a total cost of $1.4 billion. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell (not pictured) said Davis can explore his options in Las Vegas but would require 24 of 32 owners to approve the move. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
May 11, 2016; Las Vegas, NV, USA; General view of slot machines at the McCarran International Airport. Oakland Raiders owner Mark Davis (not pictured) has pledged $500 million toward building a 65,000-seat domed stadium in Las Vegas at a total cost of $1.4 billion. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell (not pictured) said Davis can explore his options in Las Vegas but would require 24 of 32 owners to approve the move. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /
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Oct 2, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) and second baseman Jace Peterson (8) and shortstop Dansby Swanson (2) pose for a photo after a game against the Detroit Tigers at Turner Field. The Braves defeated the Tigers 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 2, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) and second baseman Jace Peterson (8) and shortstop Dansby Swanson (2) pose for a photo after a game against the Detroit Tigers at Turner Field. The Braves defeated the Tigers 1-0. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports /

The Hitter Questions

Mind you, we did have some questions about hitting going into 2016… but how those were resolved was almost unfathomable.

  • H1:  How many games does Freddie Freeman play in 2016?  (Includes post-season, should miracles occur; includes any game with a statistical appearance)
  • H2:  How many Braves’ batters will hit at least 10 homers in 2016 (regular season only)?
  • H3:  Which offensive category will the Braves do best in, relative to ranking vs. the rest of the league?
  • H4:  Team batting average (was .251 in 2015)
  • H5: Total Team Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) metric (was -16 in 2015; higher is better)

Okay, so the last one was actually a fielding question.  Sorry.

The over/under’s and the answers were as follows:

  • H1:  135 or more / 134 or fewer.  Answer: 158.
  • H2:  4 or more / 3 or fewer.  Answer:  Exactly 4.
  • H3:  Choice between strikeouts, walks, or GIDP’s.  Answer:  Fewest Strikeouts.  Braves were 15th in walks, 9th in strikeouts, but 28th in GIDP.
  • H4:  .253 or better / Under .253.  Answer:  with the late flurry, the team finished at .255.
  • H5:  -16 or higher / -17 or worse.  Answer:  Worse… much worse.  It was -37, which ranked 27th in baseball.

As a footnote on that Defensive Runs Saved figure:  the Oakland A’s were the worst with an appalling -72 DRS.  The Cubs were #1 with +82.  Thus there’s a full 1 run per game differential between those two clubs.

So how much does a good defense help your pitching staff?  That should give a strong indication.

On Question T1:  you may recall that we weren’t sure that Freeman’s wrist would hold up at the beginning of the year… hence the question was raised.

As it turned out, we could hardly get him out of the lineup… 158 games played, with a career year to boot.  Well done, Freddie!

On Question T2:  Matt Kemp did indeed hit 10+ homers as a Brave (12), so he became the 4th, joining Nick Markakis, Freeman, and Adonis Garcia.

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