Apr 4, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; The teams lineup and the flag is pulled across the outfield prior to the game between the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 4, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; The teams lineup and the flag is pulled across the outfield prior to the game between the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports /
The Atlanta Braves have an incredible farm system, and Benjamin Chase has taken up Tomahawk Take’s minor league coverage of that system. This is his top 100 prospects in the Atlanta Braves system!
An Introduction
This is my second undertaking of an Atlanta Braves Top 100 Prospects list.
I will be honest – it was much tougher this season. Last year, I did consider just under 150 names that I considered as worthy of being on the top 100 list, but the qualifications were basically “did not look bad statistically” or “heard at least one positive thing”.
This year I knew was going to be much deeper, so I upped my personal requirements even for consideration, and I had 173 names on the initial list that I made to start sorting out from.
First, the methodology. This list is not a list of the guys who have the most talent from 1-100 as that wouldn’t tell us what we really want to know. This is an evaluation of who has the talent, the mental makeup, and the work ethic to turn their talent into a major league baseball player.
The reality is that of these 100 players, the Braves would be doing exceptionally well if 25 of them played more than a brief stint with the major league club. That part does need to be kept in mind as we continue through this list.
That does not mean that someone who is a #98 on this list can’t have a major league career. What I look at is the level of impact a player will have IF he does make the major leagues. A guy who will be an impact hitter or not make it at all will likely get rated higher than a guy who won’t make it as a starter or a late-inning reliever, but he has a good shot to be a major league middle reliever.
All players who have not exceeded rookie requirements are eligible for this list, even if they’ve played in the major leagues already.
I will have a post on Friday after the entire list is revealed that presents the list in a pure list format with no evaluation on each player for reference in the future. These posts will have more in-depth evaluation of each player in the list.
I also intend to update this list sometime before spring training begins with any off season acquisitions that the Braves make, so I won’t be updating the list as each trade/rule V pick/waiver claim is made, it will all be at that time.
With that said, let’s take a look at this post’s focus, #21-30 on the list!
If I would have had to guess which two of the college arms the Braves selected from the 4th through 9th rounds in the 2015 draft would end up in the top 30 in the season-ending list, I’d have probably guessed Josh Graham and Ryan Lawlor or Ryan Clark. Instead Clark and Lawlor didn’t even make the list, Graham and Taylor Lewis were mentioned already, and now Withrow is the first of that group, with Patrick Weigel to come.
Withrow was part of an intentional strategy of the Braves to select college pitchers projected as relief arms with some ability to work three or more pitches with the hope to have each work as a starter and hopefully find a gem or two.
Based on early results, Withrow could certainly be one of those gems.
Withrow’s brother is well-known to Braves fans as he is currently a member of the Braves bullpen. Matt attended Texas Tech and was riddled with injuries in his time there, so many figured his arm would require relief work due to strain causing injury.
Instead, he came out in 2015 with Danville and threw 48 innings, putting up a 3.56 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and a 16/35 BB/K. In 2016, he was pushed over low-A Rome to high-A Carolina. For the Mudcats, he threw 120 2/3 innings with a 3.80 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and a 68/131 BB/K ratio.
Withrow has a very impressive build at 6’5, 235 pounds. He has the repertoire of an inning-eater type as well, throwing an incredibly heavy fastball that can touch mid-90s, a slider that has similar arm speed and wrap to his fastball with good depth, and a change that also moves very well and keeps that same arm action, making it very tough for a hitter to distinguish pitches based on his arm action and delivery.
Withrow may not ever profile as a front-line guy, but he has the excellent sinker/slider combo that should eat up a ton of innings in the middle of a rotation. He should move to AA to start 2017 and could move quickly as a high-floor arm.
Lien really broke through with his natural athleticism at Carolina last year in his first year he’s been able to stay healthy for the majority of the season, hitting .285/.347/.415 with 9 home runs and 34 stolen bases.
Unfortunately, his health did not hold up in 2016, as he was injured in the first game of the season and did not return until late in June, missing over two months. He showed lingering results all season long as he wore down quickly, needing multiple days off as the season wore on, and seeing his results drip drastically as the year went on as well.
Lien was drafted by the Braves in the 12th round of the 2012 draft out of high school in Florida, and he’s always had excellent athleticism. Lien displayed power and speed throughout his progression in the minors.
He still possesses the tremendous athleticism that he always has possessed, but as this year shows, he has some big time issues with injuries. Lien will be 23 before the season begins in 2017, and while he showed well at Mississippi, I’d wager he’ll continue at the same level next season.
Lien is eligible for rule 5, and he is someone that could be protected by the team as he could be a guy that’d sit on a major league bench for a season right now with the ability to develop into more, even though it’d be an “old” prospect.
Povse’s Twitter handle labels him a “tall wall”, and the tall part is certainly no surprise when you see Povse, but the wall part may be stretching things. Maybe tall post?
Povse has struggled in the past with consistency due to his length and height. It’s a very common issue for tall pitchers to struggle in repeating their delivery, which is why you often see taller pitchers end up in the bullpen.
Povse has tremendous control, though his command can suffer at times, which is why you see him get hit hard at times in spite of excellent pitches. In 2016, he held his delivery for a longer stretch than he had at any point in his career so far.
The Braves drafted Povse out of University of North Carolina at Greensboro in 2014 in the 3rd round. He threw well with Danville in his draft season, posting a 3.42 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 11/37 BB/K over 47 1/3 innings.
Povse moved up to Rome in 2014 and threw 59 2/3 innings with a 2.56 ERA and 1.11 WHIP and 16/50 BB/K before moving up to high-A Carolina, where the delivery got way off track, and he seemingly could never get it back again. He finished his time in Carolina with a 9.33 ERA over 18 1/3 innings, with a 1.69 WHIP and a 7/10 BB/K ratio.
2016 started out very well for Povse with two shutout starts, throwing 13 innings and walking only 2. He then went through a four start stretch where he had his delivery one start and not the next every other. Then he had a three-start stretch of shorter starts with excellent results before struggling again with his delivery and control over the next three starts.
All in all, Povse ended up putting up a much better season in Mississippi, where he seemed to have random individual rough starts rather than patches like his season with Carolina. However, with his height and elongated delivery, he will always have that risk.
Povse gets good plane on his fastball that can run into the mid-90s when he hits his delivery well. He also offers a change and a curve.
Povse’s fastball straightens out quite a bit when he misses his landing spot, and his change loses its deception as well.
In spite of all those concerns in his profile, Povse has elite control, and that will allow him to play up an otherwise concerning chance that he gets off kilter in his delivery. I’m still a fan of Povse for sure, and if he can begin to have those “issue” days more like he did with Mississippi and they’re a once in a while thing rather than strung together, he’s got a chance to make it to the majors as a starter.
He’ll likely start 2017 in either Mississippi with a quick bounce up to Gwinnett or start straight out with Gwinnett.
Feb 22, 2016; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves outfielder Braxton Davidson signs autographs during spring training workouts at ESPN /
Davidson decided to do some training on his own last winter, and he showed up looking like he’d done the quintessential “bro” workout, with his arms developed and legs way behind.
This drastically affected Davidson’s swing, and he opened the season looking very rough. In April, he hit .192/.261/.308 with one home run.
To his credit, Braxton took direction on the season and by the end of the year, he was swinging well, though he did have a rough August/September, but I honestly think part of that had to do with exhaustion as Braxton was noted to be putting in a lot of extra time to get himself back on track from his offseason missteps.
If Braxton can hit like he did in June/July, he would be doing even better on this list. He hit .238/.371/.453 with 8 home runs over those two months.
Davidson’s swing is long, and he’ll always struggle to make consistent contact due to that. However, he has the impressive hands and lower body strength to put a drive into a ball when he gets ahold of it.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Davidson repeat high-A as he did not face a single pitcher younger than him the entire season. He could get his feet under him that way as he’s been aggressively promoted the last two seasons.
Next: #26 & #25
Jun 22, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher John Gant (52) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /
Gant was one of the gems of the summer 2015 trade with the Mets that sent Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe to the Braves along with Robert Whalen. Gant came out and dominated AA Mississippi after the trade to the tune of a 1.99 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and a 14/43 BB/K ratio over 40 2/3 innings and 7 starts with the M-Braves.
Gant features a now-famous delay in his delivery that upsets hitter timing and allows him to be even more effective than his raw pitches would say that he should be. He works with a fastball, change, and curve combo that works well in the rotation and in the bullpen.
Gant had some growing pains in 2016 due primarily to being on the bus between Gwinnett so many times. After making the opening day roster in Atlanta, he was optioned/called up 6 times on the season, one time for a single day before being sent down, when he was then recalled one day after that!
On top of that shifting of locale, Gant was constantly shifting role in 2016, going from a starter to the bullpen and back again, never really sure where he was supposed to be, so really unable to know how to prepare.
Coming out of the bullpen, Gant would likely focus on his fastball/change combo with his curve being an “extra” pitch used to throw off hitters as his “Vulcan grip” change is effective enough to play on its own alongside the fastball out of the bullpen.
However, coming into the rotation, his curve takes on importance, and for Gant, it became obvious that curve is a feel pitch for him. He has a unique curve in movement in that it gets early loop, but then seems to sit on that plane rather than continuing the progression downward, often getting hitters swinging under the pitch.
That movement works very well on either side of the plate, but when he leaves his curve over the middle of the plate, it can look like a slow, hanging slider and really get ripped as well, so part of the adjustment for Gant was his own major league staff not knowing how to spot his stuff as he had numerous curves called for in the middle of the zone, which would be a bad thing for him no matter how well his curve is breaking.
I truly do believe Gant can be an effective pitcher in either the bullpen or rotation, but there will be a number of guys competing with Gant for that 4/5 spot in the Atlanta rotation if they don’t acquire any more pitching in the offseason, and the competition will just get more stiff if they do!
Gant is likely to start the season in Atlanta, but I worry he may be a guy who faces quite a bit of up and down between Atlanta and Gwinnett depending on the team’s needs again.
Cruz was supposed to be the big coup of the 2015 international free agent class as the top-dollar signee for the Braves last July.
The team sent the 17 year old to GCL to begin his professional career, and Cruz’s raw athletic gifts were simply too much to be denied in the league, as he hit .309, flashing power (2 home runs) and speed (4 stolen bases) in just 26 games before being promoted to Danville.
It was at Danville that some of those raw tools came home to roost a bit. While he skated by with a 2/16 BB/K rate at GCL, a similar walk rate turned into nearly double the strikeout rate with Danville. His batting average with Danville was sub-.200, and his speed was really the one tool that did play well at the level.
Cruz is definitely a gifted athlete, and with a 6’1 frame that is listed at 180 pounds and has room to add healthy weight, he could be a guy who grows into more power and more production down the line.
He will, however, need to drastically improve his pitch recognition. On the season, he walked at a putrid 2.2% rate while striking out at a 19.5% rate. That strikeout rate by itself wouldn’t be problematic, especially for someone with a frame to add power like Cruz has, but striking out 9 times as much as you walk is terrible no matter how few times you’re striking out.
Cruz does have very impressive raw speed, though he is more raw speed than instincts right now, likely a 70 runner that plays more like a 60 runner due to some base running and base stealing mistakes.
Defensively is also going to be a concern going forward. While Cruz has the range to handle short just fine and the arm to handle it as well, his glove work was sporadic at times and his decision making on when to wing out a throw on a tough play needs some work, though that latter issue is more one of maturity than skill.
It would not surprise me to see the Braves start Cruz in Danville next season, but with the influx of shortstops into the season that they will want to ensure see development time, Cruz may be pushed to Rome, and I do worry for that jump and how it could affect his development as he does need to work on these issues that showed up in Danville.
Yepez was one of the bummer stories of the 2016 season. The jewel of the 2014 international free agent signing period, he came out in 2015 and hit very well across the two rookie levels, totaling a .299/.364/.458 line with 4 home runs and 16 doubles to go with a 22/55 BB/K over 228 plate appearances as a 17 year-old.
The Braves moved Yepez up to Rome this season, and he looked comfortable at the plate, swinging a very good bat before he was injured, missing almost three months before he returned to the plate. While he finished strong as far as contact is concerned, the power that the team was hoping to see never had a chance to develop in 2016 due to the injury time.
Yepez is a guy who has played first base the last two seasons really in deference to Austin Riley‘s development as they’ve moved together, but I honestly wonder if it wouldn’t be advantageous to swap them. Yepez features a strong arm, and he’s shown very good instincts off the bat and good range at first that I think would play well across the diamond as well, especially as Riley continues to struggle.
Rarely does one describe a right-handed swing as “pretty”, but Yepez has one of those. His swing is one that you watch and just fall in love with. He has that sort of perfect swing to produce power and contact as he’s quick through the zone, yet generates tremendous power.
He did show some inexperience against premium hard breaking stuff, but that will come with more exposure.
I could see Yepez sticking back in Rome to start in 2017 as he’ll only be 19 all of 2017, and especially if the team does want to work on a transition back to third base, but definitely after missing the time he did in 2016.
I will admit that of any player on the list in the top 30 or so players, the toughest guy to place for me was Minter. I am admittedly against rating pure relievers too highly, but Minter is beyond a normal reliever performance by a long ways.
Minter was a very good prospect in college before Tommy John surgery. He was drafted in the competitive balance round following the second round of the 2015 draft out of Texas A&M. Minter was considered a legit first-round prospect in his senior year before the TJS, and many teams thought he would return to school as he was wanting solid money to sign (along with some other reported requirements).
The Braves eased Minter back in 2016, but it became increasingly difficult to “ease” him. He started his season in mid-May after staying in extended spring for extra rest on his arm and less wear. His first assignment was Rome, and in two weeks, he made 5 appearances with 6 2/3 innings, allowing no runs, a 0.45 WHIP, and a 1/6 BB/K. He went back to extended spring for a week at that point as part of managing his work load.
From there he was assigned to Carolina, and again, hitters had no clue what to do with him. His appearances were more spaced out, and over a month with Carolina, he made 8 apparances, throwing 9 1/3 innings without allowing a run, posting a 0.75 WHIP, and a 4/10 BB/K.
He then moved up to AA Mississippi. The M-Braves continued to pace out his appearances, but the results continued to be elite. He did give up runs, however, allowing a 2.41 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and a 6/31 BB/K over 18 2/3 AA innings.
Overall, that left his line at 31 appearances, 34 2/3 innings, a 1.30 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and an 11/47 BB/K ratio.
I did a scouting report on Minter after the season and while many have mentioned his slider, what I do see as the pitch that he focuses on and could play very well with his arm angle and his left-handedness is his hard sinker. Immediately, I jumped to Zach Britton, who may have the only left-handed hard sinker I’ve seen that can compare to what Minter does.
It would not surprise me at all if Minter worked his way to Atlanta in 2017, however, one of the reasons Minter was willing to sign with Atlanta was that he wanted the opportunity to eventually start upon returning from TJS. It will be interesting if he continues to pursue that desire in 2017, or if he sticks in the bullpen as he could end up in the big leagues quickly out of the bullpen.
Last year, people thought I was nuts in the fall to have Didder in the top 50. Scouts I talked with who had seen him kept telling me more and more things about his incredible defense, and anyone who knows me knows the sucker I am for elite defense, and when someone gave me a report of “potential plus” on base skills along with plus speed and his defensive prowess, I jumped him even more in my January re-rank.
Then, as the season played out, I felt as if I didn’t trust my own gut on him enough. He was the consistent top-of-the order presence for the Rome lineup all year long, playing plus-plus defense for Rome, whether it was in center or right this year.
Didder’s big impression this year was absolutely at the offensive part of his game. Didder is a lean 6′ guy, listed at 170, and that might even be generous. Yet at that size, he has a balanced swing that he generates a ton of leg power in. For a guy who had 26 total extra base hits (and no home runs) in 623 plate appearances before this season, he hit 6 home runs and 9 triples in 2016.
Though there is power there, one thing with Didder’s swing is that it is reliant on his legs, and he does struggle some in mid-swing adjustment, so his contact tool is not going to ever grade as a 60-70 or anything, but he’s able to get the bat through the zone well. However, due to that leg-led swing, he’ll likely have higher strikeout numbers than most would probably like from a leadoff guy.
Didder has absolutely elite speed. In the outfield, watching him go from zero to full speed after a ball looks so effortless that you don’t even realize how fast he’s moving unless you have a point of reference to measure against, like the wall or another outfielder. He’s also sharp on the bases, but I do believe he was sent a lot this year when it was not a great situation to run, and I’m not sure how much that was the Rome offense working to generate runs, and how much that was Didder.
I cannot believe I got this far without mentioning that Didder is the human pin cushion! Seriously, Didder did get hit 39 times in his season, but one thing to take into consideration is that on a per-plate-appearance rate, he did not get hit at any higher rate than he always has in his minor league career, so this is something that he does.
Didder’s arm is purely the best in the system, and could make an argument for the best in the minors, as he nailed 20 assists from the outfield EVEN WITH the reputation of having an elite arm.
Didder will likely play in high-A to start 2017, and his progression at the plate continuing in 2017 could turn Didder into a guy that gets much more national attention.
21. Yunior Severino, SS
The second-rated signing this summer from the July 2nd international market, Severino has a very impressive scouting report. The overall #8-ranked player according to Baseball America, Severino is seen as a guy who is a shortstop currently with the opportunity to play more like second base as he moves up the chain.
Severino is 6′ and 170 pounds now, but he is noted for his big time power potential as he has very quick wrists and generates excellent leg power for such a young hitter. He does struggle at times to keep his wrists and hips in sync, but when they both snap at the same time, the ball explodes off of his bat.
Severino has the soft hands and good movements to stay in the infield, but his arm is on the average end, and he’s an average runner, which is reflected in his range at short. He does have very good instincts off the bat, which allows that limited range to play up, so second base would likely be a position he could still play with very good defense.
Overall, the offensive profile for Severino and video on him remind me a ton of Robinson Cano. That would be one heck of a signing for the Braves to have in the system.
