Atlanta Braves Market for Starting Pitching in 2017
As the 2016 season wraps up…the seemingly never-ending conundrum of “wait ‘til next year” might actually come to fruition in 2017…if Atlanta can find some reliable pitching.
Our beloved GM John “Coppy” Coppolella has let Atlanta Braves fans know that there will be bucketloads of cash – upwards of $50 million – that can be spent on the free agent market and/or in trades this upcoming off-season.
Adding on to that, it’s not hard to look at this team and see a competitor. With the lineup looking solid as of late combined with talent a-plenty in our relief staff between 3-4 on the team now, a few on the DL, and an elite arm like A.J. Minter chomping at the bits, and last but not least, our young impact starting pitching staff in the Majors (Julio Teheran, Mike Foltynewicz, Matt Wisler) combined with up and coming guys such as Sean Newcomb and Patrick Weigel, there’s reason to believe that the rebuild really is coming to a close and that as soon as next year the Braves can compete for a playoff position.
But there’s an elephant in the room. It’s big. Everyone who follows closely to MLB news knows the stench that is the 2017 free agent market. On the latest #AskCoppy, Braves GM stated they’re in the market for 2 starting pitchers and that learning on the job isn’t going to happen at the MLB level anymore. It’s poop, or get off the pot for the Braves starting staff!
Potential Free Agents Atlanta Brave could Entice
So 2 Starting pitchers, eh? Welp…here’s the list via MLBTradeRumors (with next season ages):
Brett Anderson (29)
Clay Buchholz (32) — $13.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Andrew Cashner (30)
Jhoulys Chacin (29)
Bartolo Colon (43)
Jorge De La Rosa (36)
R.A. Dickey (42)
Doug Fister (33)
Jaime Garcia (30) — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout
Gio Gonzalez (31) — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout
Jason Hammel (34) — $10MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Jeremy Hellickson (30)
Rich Hill (37)
Derek Holland (30) — $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Scott Kazmir (33) — can opt out of remaining two years, $32MM on current contract
Mat Latos (29)
Colby Lewis (37)
Kris Medlen (31) — $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Charlie Morton (33) — $9.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Jon Niese (30) — $10MM club option with a $500K buyout
Ivan Nova (30)
Jake Peavy (36)
CC Sabathia (36) — $25MM vesting option with a $5MM buyout
James Shields (35) — can opt out of remaining two years, $44MM on current contract
Alfredo Simon (36)
Edinson Volquez (33) — $10MM mutual option with a $3MM buyout
Jered Weaver (34)
C.J. Wilson (36)
Now the nitty-gritty…
Who’s likely to get a Qualifying offer?
Due to the poor quality of this market, anyone that’s resembled a halfway respectable pitcher could get a qualified offer (unless traded mid-season of which a qualifying offer cannot be made). Hart has stated that the Braves are reluctant to give up a draft pick so pursuing qualifying offers are likely off the table.
Who’s likely to have an option picked up?
As you can see, many on the above list have 2017 options and due to the poor market and the extreme overpay that happened in last year’s market for starting pitching, some of those options will be picked up.
Gio Gonzalez and Jason Hammel are no-brainers, and Jaime Garcia is also a likely candidate to have his option picked up.
Guys like Charlie Morton and Edinson Volquez are fence-straddlers and could go either way, but for the sake of finality, let’s pretend those 2 hit the free agent market in 2017. So scratch off Gio Gonzalez, Jason Hammel, and Jaime Garcia.
The one true free agent with actual value would appear to be Rich Hill. His timing couldn’t be better – for himself. But would you want to offer a 37-year-old pitcher a 3 year deal that might approach $20 million per season?
Minus those, what do you have left? Mostly a group of has-beens, never wuzzes, injury-riddled reserves, or under-performers. Hardly the stuff of legends, for sure. So back to the money that Braves have burning a huge hole in their pockets this winter. Where does it go? Well, there’s another route they can take…
Starting Pitcher Trade Candidates for the Atlanta Braves
Coppy and Hart have been heard saying that in trades “they don’t want to pay on both ends”. What this means is they don’t want to take on salary and lose real prospects at the same time. If they’re going to make a trade, they’re either going to take on salary and trade no prospects, or trade prospects for a player under team control for many years. The latter of those 2 scenarios is way too big of a concept to speculate on as that’s an open field that I just don’t have the time to dive into right now, but let’s look at the first.
Is there a pitcher out there that’s costly but could provide some solid innings for a team in need of a veteran #3 starter? Let’s take a look at the criteria first:
- Cannot be under control for more than 2 years. If you haven’t been paying attention, our Class-A affiliate, the Rome Braves, is overflowing with talent, and that talent is only a few years away. The Braves aren’t going to take on a pitcher that will block the way for that group, especially considering that pitchers like Teheran, Folty, Wisler, and Sean Newcomb will still be well under team control.
- Has to be expendable by the other team. So we’re looking for a veteran starting pitcher that had poor 2016 numbers, is owed a chunk of change, and still has some left in the tank.
The List
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Anibal Sanchez 1/16.8MM w/option
Ubaldo Jimenez-1/13.5MM
Yovani Gallardo-1/11MM w/option
Francisco Liriano– 1/13.7MM
Matt Garza– 1/12.5MM w/option
Matt Harrison– 1/13.2MM w/option
Scott Kazmir– 2/35.3MM
Brandon McCarthy– 2/23MM
Matt Cain– 1/20.8MM w/option
Most of these guys have had down years, or have been injured in 2017. This would be an attractive list if it were 2013, but it’s not. I’d guess that most of these guys could be had, and some could even be traded for a guy like Nick Markakis straight up (match pending).
Know what cliché comes to mind right now? Pick your poison. None of these options seem very appealing. It’s like going to a gross grocery store named “Linda’s Low-Priced Picking’s” (yes, don’t pretend there wouldn’t be a grammatically incorrect apostrophe inserted right there behind the “g”), and having to choose between the slimy deli turkey or the slimy deli ham.
Picking my poison for the Atlanta Braves
If I were given this scenario and I had to pick between these 2 scenarios, I’d go with 1 of each. Don’t lay into me too hard:
- Sign Clay Buchholz to a 1-year incentive-laden deal. It wasn’t too long ago that Buchholz was a top-5 consensus prospect in the Major Leagues. He’s had years of pure dominance and years of pure vomit. He seems like the perfect candidate for Roger to fix, and Roger has been really good at resurrecting careers (assuming Roger is asked to stay, which isn’t a lock given the pitching issues this season). Buchholz is also from the south and went to the same college as Jace Peterson, McNeese State University in Louisiana.
- Trade Nick Markakis for Francisco Liriano. The Blue Jays acquired Liriano from the Pirates at the deadline and he hasn’t pitched that poorly for them (4.09 ERA through 7 games), but they have a problem staring them in the face in the form of free agency. As of now, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Michael Saunders, all huge bats, are free agents in 2017. It’s been well-documented that the Jays cannot keep both Bautista and Encarnacion, and I’d be willing to infer that Saunders walks as well. Their payroll commitment for 2017 already accounts for 107MM without those 3, leaving them less than 30MM to fill numerous vacancies. A lateral move for a RFer seems wise.
Wrapping it up with an Atlanta Braves Red and Blue ribbon.
The Braves find themselves in an interesting situation. They have money to spend, but nowhere to really spend it as they don’t want to sacrifice draft picks, and likely don’t want to commit a ton of money and years to a player. They could use 2017’s money by picking up a few guys on 1-2 year deals, then enter the market again in 2018, when the team will likely show more of what is needed long-term to be a competitor, and the 2018 free agent class is frickin’ LOADED.
Or, they could take a completely alternative route and sign Japan’s Babe Ruth!
SHOHEI OTANIIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!!
GET IT DONE, COPPY!!!
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Let’s say it together! 1, 2, 3…
Go Braves!!